I addressed this subject months ago. The fact that a poster wants to continually “put it in your face” says more about their character. I feel no desire to engage with such posters, or on a subject that has been regurgitated the past six months or more. It seems pointless, boring, and generally makes me feel that poster is either an ass hat, or just a lunatic.
To all normal posters I will leave you with a Merry Christmas.
The bond buyer ought to be able to cash in his bond for face value any time after the callable date for a level playing field
Game is only stacked against the little guy because they have less money to lose. There is no master plan other than stupid human frailty.
In regards to bonds, there were plenty available that could have been bought months ago, sold today up 10%. What is that annualized?
Really not that hard to follow.
The issuer of the bond can "call" it and pay face value at any time after the call date.
The buyer of the bond can do no such thing.
So as int rates drops, our bonds paying more than the rate in the current environment get "called". Even though it's value is greater than face. Can't sell at MV as it is getting called.
If int rates increase, we are stuck with a bond paying less than the rate in the current environment. WE do not get to "call" and get paid face value. We either have to hold to maturity or sell and take a loss as the MV is < face value due to its low interest rate.
This is a tilted table. You talk about bonds bought months ago that now can be sold for a gain. Nope. Those are the ones being called
Yeah, but I wouldn't go so far about seeing the light thing.
We still disagree on trying to time the market.
Your bias is to not even try and I am prone to try. So, I wouldn't get too carried away about any revelations in this regard.
I meant only that you saw the light about being mistaken about what we were talking about. You invest the way you want. I might think it's foolish (and if you ONLY invest by chasing peaks and valleys, it is), but I couldn't care less how you invest.
I don't have a "bias." I decided long ago that I wanted to invest a huge amount of money over time but not have the ups and the downs of the stock market take any part of my regular thought or concern. So, investing in the most proven way, which is also the most passive way, was the way for me. I've got too many places to go to be all cool and sh!t to be concerned about how the stock market is doing.
I don't know how old you are or how long you've been investing, but if you've done better than ~11% annually since 1989, then more power to you. If you haven't, then well, that's what you get for chasing peaks and valleys.
No argument here, and nice that you found investment strategy that is a good fit for your circumstances and needs. That's what it is all about.
Since you raised the ROI for my efforts, yes, it has exceeded the threshold you noted and I find it is worth all the time I find myself dedicating to it. Understood, this is not for everyone, but in my estimation, it is worth my while and I can't complain. And I find it fairly fascinating, for that matter.
Game is only stacked against the little guy because they have less money to lose. There is no master plan other than stupid human frailty.
In regards to bonds, there were plenty available that could have been bought months ago, sold today up 10%. What is that annualized?
Really not that hard to follow.
The issuer of the bond can "call" it and pay face value at any time after the call date.
The buyer of the bond can do no such thing.
So as int rates drops, our bonds paying more than the rate in the current environment get "called". Even though it's value is greater than face. Can't sell at MV as it is getting called.
If int rates increase, we arem stuck with a bond paying less than the rate in the current environment. WE do not get to "call" and get paid face value. We either have to hold to maturity or sell and take a loss as the MV is < face value due to its low interest rate.
This is a tilted table. You talk about bonds bought months ago that now can be sold for a gain. Nope. Those are the ones being called
If agip is around he can pull up the data pretty easy. If memory serves me well the high yield in the 10 Year Treasury was around 5.15%, lets call it 5%. Now the current yield is about 4%. Assuming a now 1% difference, with still nearly 10 years remaining, tells me that bond is up about 10%. And there is no call provision. Numerous other examples could be made.
Igy, likewise, and I hope you and your family have a great one.
Here's to a new years as well. In light of the way things are going this year, we could really use a shot at a new one.
Cheers.
Seattle,
By design or default we became the preserver of family heirlooms, history, and so forth. Years ago my father gave me linoleum blocks carved by my two brothers. My oldest brother died of cancer at 13 back in 1956, and the middle brother two years ago. Anyway, this year I tried to print them, and I just did not have the skill. Took them to a local artist, and she did a great job. I wanted to honor my brothers, and I am sure my parents would appreciate that.
Cheers to your family and the holidays.
Igy
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
Igy, likewise, and I hope you and your family have a great one.
Here's to a new years as well. In light of the way things are going this year, we could really use a shot at a new one.
Cheers.
Seattle,
Back in the 1950s and 60s it was a thing to carve linoleum blocks and make your own Christmas cards. We get very few cards anymore. This year we did this thought it would be fun. It wasn’t easy, but did it.
Igy
This post was edited 7 minutes after it was posted.
Well people are still buying stupid stuff. Regulators should have prosecuted folks like Gronk and Kim K. for swindling people. Why? Of course not since the Fed and politicians created this mess.
Thanks for leaving me out of that lineup, Igly. People actually use their own free will to buy my stupid stuff. You oughta know!
The issuer of the bond can "call" it and pay face value at any time after the call date.
The buyer of the bond can do no such thing.
So as int rates drops, our bonds paying more than the rate in the current environment get "called". Even though it's value is greater than face. Can't sell at MV as it is getting called.
If int rates increase, we arem stuck with a bond paying less than the rate in the current environment. WE do not get to "call" and get paid face value. We either have to hold to maturity or sell and take a loss as the MV is < face value due to its low interest rate.
This is a tilted table. You talk about bonds bought months ago that now can be sold for a gain. Nope. Those are the ones being called
If agip is around he can pull up the data pretty easy. If memory serves me well the high yield in the 10 Year Treasury was around 5.15%, lets call it 5%. Now the current yield is about 4%. Assuming a now 1% difference, with still nearly 10 years remaining, tells me that bond is up about 10%. And there is no call provision. Numerous other examples could be made.
T-bills cannot be called. But while they were paying 5%, municipal bonds were out there paying 6%. And they are being called
Flagpole, Sally, Seattle, agip, and igy have been repeating their viewpoints over and over and over again for the past decade or 2.
We get it. Flagpole invests at least 15% in mutual funds. Live below your means. Fall in love with some cheap hatchbacks for your kids. By the way Kia Soul sucks as mine recently got stolen but before that, it was a good car. And in your 50s, you can retire.
Igy thinks market’s going to crash every year. When it doesn’t, it’s because investors are irrational.
Agip likes to report about the market. He usually thinks market will go up.
Sally likes to diversify and thinks the market will go up in the long run. But having said that, he likes to gamble a little so not sure if he actually follows his own advice.
Seattle seems to invest like Agip but also likes to time the market to try to beat it. But in the long run, not sure if that has actually worked or not.
Folks, this basically sums up the thread and will this will continue for another 20 years. Flagpole will be boasting how he is so rich when he is in his 70s .
That's actually a pretty good synopsis. Props to you. Sorry your Soul got stolen, and Hyundai and Kia should never have allowed that issue that made those cars easy to steal, but you are wrong about the Soul. It's a great car. Hatchbacks, crossovers, SUVs are the best cars generally...safe, functional, fun.
Since this is an investing thread though, we all know whose approach has done the best in the last 20 years. I don't even need to say it.
Flagpole, Sally, Seattle, agip, and igy have been repeating their viewpoints over and over and over again for the past decade or 2.
We get it. Flagpole invests at least 15% in mutual funds. Live below your means. Fall in love with some cheap hatchbacks for your kids. By the way Kia Soul sucks as mine recently got stolen but before that, it was a good car. And in your 50s, you can retire.
Igy thinks market’s going to crash every year. When it doesn’t, it’s because investors are irrational.
Agip likes to report about the market. He usually thinks market will go up.
Sally likes to diversify and thinks the market will go up in the long run. But having said that, he likes to gamble a little so not sure if he actually follows his own advice.
Seattle seems to invest like Agip but also likes to time the market to try to beat it. But in the long run, not sure if that has actually worked or not.
Folks, this basically sums up the thread and will this will continue for another 20 years. Flagpole will be boasting how he is so rich when he is in his 70s .
may we all last another 20 years right here, a merry band of crotchety increasingly old men!
Solid summary but I'd add that Seattle focuses on tech, I believe. Which has probably given him some high volatility but stellar returns over the past 10 years.
I'd add that bad hombre gente who pops up every now and then. Ex-pro, likes numbers a lot but unfortunately that means I don't understand some of what he writes. Except the memes. I get those.
We lost racket over the year/s...would be great if he came back. And that guy in Europe who claimed his work was too important to risk posting about the economy on a running site. the main thing I remember about him is that he believed we'd soon have some sort of massive infrastructure problem that would be insolvable and would cause a lot a damage. Interesting hypothesis that I think of often. Not that I agree, but it's the kind of black swan event no one has planned for.
Flagpole, Sally, Seattle, agip, and igy have been repeating their viewpoints over and over and over again for the past decade or 2.
We get it. Flagpole invests at least 15% in mutual funds. Live below your means. Fall in love with some cheap hatchbacks for your kids. By the way Kia Soul sucks as mine recently got stolen but before that, it was a good car. And in your 50s, you can retire.
Igy thinks market’s going to crash every year. When it doesn’t, it’s because investors are irrational.
Agip likes to report about the market. He usually thinks market will go up.
Sally likes to diversify and thinks the market will go up in the long run. But having said that, he likes to gamble a little so not sure if he actually follows his own advice.
Seattle seems to invest like Agip but also likes to time the market to try to beat it. But in the long run, not sure if that has actually worked or not.
Folks, this basically sums up the thread and will this will continue for another 20 years. Flagpole will be boasting how he is so rich when he is in his 70s .
may we all last another 20 years right here, a merry band of crotchety increasingly old men!
Solid summary but I'd add that Seattle focuses on tech, I believe. Which has probably given him some high volatility but stellar returns over the past 10 years.
I'd add that bad hombre gente who pops up every now and then. Ex-pro, likes numbers a lot but unfortunately that means I don't understand some of what he writes. Except the memes. I get those.
We lost racket over the year/s...would be great if he came back. And that guy in Europe who claimed his work was too important to risk posting about the economy on a running site. the main thing I remember about him is that he believed we'd soon have some sort of massive infrastructure problem that would be insolvable and would cause a lot a damage. Interesting hypothesis that I think of often. Not that I agree, but it's the kind of black swan event no one has planned for.
On to 2024!
Yeah, like all of that, for sure.
I would add, Sally made a declared move into tech (Mag. 7) positions earlier this fall.
Racket can be wakened, given a little prodding, akin to a hybernating bear. Good man with insights into Options trading.
Mas., the European guy, long in abscentia, though maybe he will be back for the next election to tell us again how some homeless guy he met in the AM-PM checkout line were collecting thousands of fake ballots to cast for the Dems. Not making this up...
The recently retired named guy does a lot of impressive analytics, number based.
I don't understand most of what gente drills down into either. I've tried. Not going to happen.
There's a few more. Like the guy that pumped Nvidia like a year ago. Nice call.
big 4Q rally so far...let's see what has moved. Has there been any rotation away from tech?
3 months, total return
BTC +66
ARKK +37
PTON +34
Retail sector +21
Defense +19
CALF ETF +18
Tech +17
REITS +16
Ai stocks +15
Small Caps +14
Cons Discr +14
Financials +13
Industrials +12
Comms sector +11
SP500 +10
Materials +10
India +9
EM ex-China +9
Corp Bonds +8
Global 60/40 +8 generic benchmark
Non-US developed +8
Junk +7
COWZ +7
Value +7
Gold +7
ST Junk +5
TIPS +4
ST Corps +4
Health +4
Inter Treasuries +4
Emerging +4
TSLA +3
Cons staples +2
ST Tips +2
Utils 0
Energy -4
Hussman -4
China -9
Weed stonks -17
Well no not a rotation but good to see some beaten up classes rebounding, esp small caps.
Looks like the US has vanquished yet another economic foe, after everyone was convinced the days of US econ dominance was over. Chinese stocks have gone nowhere for 10 years and absolutely tanking. I've switched to EMXC, emerging markets ex-china. It might be reactive and too late tho.
I think we have to recognize the importance of gold and BTC when the world is stressed- those have done well as ways to preserve wealth outside of currency.
Healthcare has to be something to look at carefully now... it's pulling in a huge amount of brainpower but the stocks have underperformed for a while. I have to think all that brainpower will figure out how to thrive. Could be a place to buy low here and wait.
finally, props to Igy who has, during the 2 years of this stock market churn, has repeatedly made good trades. Energy, emerging market debt, hussman, etc. There are a lot of ways to invest and buy and hold is only one.
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