A few open market days left in the year, but yes, he was wrong. I will report the final when it is time, and I will do so on a factual basis. The lesson here isn't to rip on Igy, and you, Sally, should refrain from being so gleeful that someone was wrong. Not a good look. Not a good way to go about your life.
I will report the final number. My reporting will be black and white and free of emotion or scorn.
As I've said before, Igy called for a massive downturn, and guess what, we had a downturn that was astounding. Maybe not to the level that he bravely stipulated, but a huge downturn nonethelss.
And what is more important, really? Knowing some exact NAV or the fact that the market was to make a massive move.
To this investor, I say the latter. To Igy's credit.
The point is to understand where we were headed and if a dollar NAV was thrown in there, fine, sweat the details. Knock yourself out.
I, on the other hand, am willing to give credit where credit is due, and Igy saw that a longstanding runaway bull market was about to pivot on a dime and dive. And it did. And we are just now getting back to the levels it was at the time he made the wise prediction.
Oh, what the hell, I'll do it now. There are only 4 more open maket days left the rest of the year, and I'm going to be busy on most of those days.
I won't even remind everyone of the exact conversation held in February 2023.
These are the facts...the black and white of the topic of this post:
1) Our resident permabear said in February 2023 regarding the S&P 500 that it would be, "Hard to see a year end 2023 S&P 500 much above 3,000, even without a recession."
2) I decided to record the behavior of the S&P 500 because our resident permabear was so sure of his statement that he asked agip to bookmark the page. Maybe he would be correct! I decided to be helpful and do it for both of them, remembering of course that I made no pronouncement of how the index would do, and I didn't even have an opinion about whether it would go up or down. My view is ONLY that the market goes up over time. I don't get into short term predictions...certianly not investing for the short term.
3) At the time, that index was at 3,991.
4) Today, that index sits at 4,754 as of this exact moment. So, by any reasonable measure, this was a huge miss by our resident permabear.
5) The lesson is what I have preached here for 20+ years...invest in the market in a diversified way the money you don't need today so that you have money when you no longer have an income. That's it. Going after short-term gains is both foolhardy (because NO ONE can do it even close to correctly), and greedy. Greed is one of the seven deadly sins, and greed will bring you down.
So, was I right? Nope! I didn't make a prediction, so I was neither right nor wrong. My PHILOSOPHY on investing in general was proven to be solid based on this circumstance (something I already knew), but again, I made no specific prediction on this very short period of time...because I don't care about short term moves in the market, and NEITHER SHOULD ANY OF YOU.
Merry Christmas ahead of time to those of you who celebrate/recognize that holiday, and have a Happy New Year!
A few open market days left in the year, but yes, he was wrong. I will report the final when it is time, and I will do so on a factual basis. The lesson here isn't to rip on Igy, and you, Sally, should refrain from being so gleeful that someone was wrong. Not a good look. Not a good way to go about your life.
I will report the final number. My reporting will be black and white and free of emotion or scorn.
As I've said before, Igy called for a massive downturn, and guess what, we had a downturn that was astounding. Maybe not to the level that he bravely stipulated, but a huge downturn nonethelss.
And what is more important, really? Knowing some exact NAV or the fact that the market was to make a massive move.
To this investor, I say the latter. To Igy's credit.
The point is to understand where we were headed and if a dollar NAV was thrown in there, fine, sweat the details. Knock yourself out.
I, on the other hand, am willing to give credit where credit is due, and Igy saw that a longstanding runaway bull market was about to pivot on a dime and dive. And it did. And we are just now getting back to the levels it was at the time he made the wise prediction.
Um...INCORRECT! I don't answer this to slam our resident permabear, but just to keep the record straight (as a former journalist, I just can't help myself). The call was in February that the S&P 500 would be at or just above 3,000 by the end of 2023. The index was at 3,991 at the time and it is now at 4,757 (just checked again). No wise prediction there. It was about as off as it could possibly have been.
Well people are still buying stupid stuff. Regulators should have prosecuted folks like Gronk and Kim K. for swindling people. Why? Of course not since the Fed and politicians created this mess.
As I've said before, Igy called for a massive downturn, and guess what, we had a downturn that was astounding. Maybe not to the level that he bravely stipulated, but a huge downturn nonethelss.
And what is more important, really? Knowing some exact NAV or the fact that the market was to make a massive move.
To this investor, I say the latter. To Igy's credit.
The point is to understand where we were headed and if a dollar NAV was thrown in there, fine, sweat the details. Knock yourself out.
I, on the other hand, am willing to give credit where credit is due, and Igy saw that a longstanding runaway bull market was about to pivot on a dime and dive. And it did. And we are just now getting back to the levels it was at the time he made the wise prediction.
Um...INCORRECT! I don't answer this to slam our resident permabear, but just to keep the record straight (as a former journalist, I just can't help myself). The call was in February that the S&P 500 would be at or just above 3,000 by the end of 2023. The index was at 3,991 at the time and it is now at 4,757 (just checked again). No wise prediction there. It was about as off as it could possibly have been.
Did you read what I wrote on this thread a couple of weeks back about this?
As I said, he said that the index would take a massive downturn and even hit some level and he noted a benchmark within the next two years of that date.
He did not say it would be at that level two years from then (Nov. 2021 I think it was). His wording was that it would see that level within a given timeframe - before then.
So, what happened?
He predicted something like a 60% drop from current levels within two years. And instead it had a massive drop, but only to 30% within the two years.
So, he correctly called the direction and somewhat correctly called the magnitude right in that it would be massive. But he was incorrect about that exact level to which it would drop.
Do we need to be so exacting? Is that the point? He called for a massive drop within a couple of years and it did in fact drop, as he said. So he threw in some numbers for emphasis and it fell short of that mark. But it did fall massively, and that is what matters most, frankly, without being overly pedantic about it, which I am prone to say, we are being...
As I've said before, Igy called for a massive downturn, and guess what, we had a downturn that was astounding. Maybe not to the level that he bravely stipulated, but a huge downturn nonethelss.
And what is more important, really? Knowing some exact NAV or the fact that the market was to make a massive move.
To this investor, I say the latter. To Igy's credit.
The point is to understand where we were headed and if a dollar NAV was thrown in there, fine, sweat the details. Knock yourself out.
I, on the other hand, am willing to give credit where credit is due, and Igy saw that a longstanding runaway bull market was about to pivot on a dime and dive. And it did. And we are just now getting back to the levels it was at the time he made the wise prediction.
Um...INCORRECT! I don't answer this to slam our resident permabear, but just to keep the record straight (as a former journalist, I just can't help myself). The call was in February that the S&P 500 would be at or just above 3,000 by the end of 2023. The index was at 3,991 at the time and it is now at 4,757 (just checked again). No wise prediction there. It was about as off as it could possibly have been.
Flagpole - I used to be with you on diversification but I am changing my tune. The late, great Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway said wide diversification produces ordinary results. There is a trade-off between safety and returns.
Here is what he said:
"While diversifying across multiple assets may help mitigate risk and protect against significant losses, it may also limit the upside potential for high returns. Munger believes that investors who spread their capital thinly across numerous stocks may not fully capitalize on the exceptional growth of a select few."
Here is what Berkshire has done versus the S & P since 1965:
Cumulatively since 1965, including dividends, the S&P 500 has gained 24,708%. If all you had done 58 years ago was invest $10,000 in an S&P 500 index fund, you would have about $2.4 million today. Nearly 60 years is more time than most people have to build a retirement fund, but it gives you an idea of the power of compounding over time.
As incredible as that sounds, if you'd invested in Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, you would have much, much more money. Since that time, Berkshire Hathaway stock has gained 3,787,464%, or more than 153 times the S&P 500's gains over the same time period -- good enough to give you roughly $355 million based on a $10,000 investment. That translates to a compounded annual gain of 19.8%, or nearly double the S&P 500's 9.9% compound annual gain.
Um...INCORRECT! I don't answer this to slam our resident permabear, but just to keep the record straight (as a former journalist, I just can't help myself). The call was in February that the S&P 500 would be at or just above 3,000 by the end of 2023. The index was at 3,991 at the time and it is now at 4,757 (just checked again). No wise prediction there. It was about as off as it could possibly have been.
Did you read what I wrote on this thread a couple of weeks back about this?
As I said, he said that the index would take a massive downturn and even hit some level and he noted a benchmark within the next two years of that date.
He did not say it would be at that level two years from then (Nov. 2021 I think it was). His wording was that it would see that level within a given timeframe - before then.
So, what happened?
He predicted something like a 60% drop from current levels within two years. And instead it had a massive drop, but only to 30% within the two years.
So, he correctly called the direction and somewhat correctly called the magnitude right in that it would be massive. But he was incorrect about that exact level to which it would drop.
Do we need to be so exacting? Is that the point? He called for a massive drop within a couple of years and it did in fact drop, as he said. So he threw in some numbers for emphasis and it fell short of that mark. But it did fall massively, and that is what matters most, frankly, without being overly pedantic about it, which I am prone to say, we are being...
The call I'm tallking about is the one he was so sure of that he asked agip to bookmark the page. He called in February 2023 for the S&P 500 to be at or near 3,000 even if we didn't have a recession. It was at 3,991 when he made that call, and it is at 4,754 now. HUGE miss. Permabears will be right once in a great while, because the market DOES drop. Even in your expample where you say he was right, he was more bearish than what was reality. Of course he was, because he's a permabear.
Dude, he made a HUGELY wrong call in February 2023 about the S&P 500...about as wrong as a person could be. I recorded the facts. I'm not entertaining any other call he made.
Um...INCORRECT! I don't answer this to slam our resident permabear, but just to keep the record straight (as a former journalist, I just can't help myself). The call was in February that the S&P 500 would be at or just above 3,000 by the end of 2023. The index was at 3,991 at the time and it is now at 4,757 (just checked again). No wise prediction there. It was about as off as it could possibly have been.
Flagpole - I used to be with you on diversification but I am changing my tune. The late, great Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway said wide diversification produces ordinary results. There is a trade-off between safety and returns.
Here is what he said:
"While diversifying across multiple assets may help mitigate risk and protect against significant losses, it may also limit the upside potential for high returns. Munger believes that investors who spread their capital thinly across numerous stocks may not fully capitalize on the exceptional growth of a select few."
Here is what Berkshire has done versus the S & P since 1965:
Cumulatively since 1965, including dividends, the S&P 500 has gained 24,708%. If all you had done 58 years ago was invest $10,000 in an S&P 500 index fund, you would have about $2.4 million today. Nearly 60 years is more time than most people have to build a retirement fund, but it gives you an idea of the power of compounding over time.
As incredible as that sounds, if you'd invested in Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, you would have much, much more money. Since that time, Berkshire Hathaway stock has gained 3,787,464%, or more than 153 times the S&P 500's gains over the same time period -- good enough to give you roughly $355 million based on a $10,000 investment. That translates to a compounded annual gain of 19.8%, or nearly double the S&P 500's 9.9% compound annual gain.
Ok. Do what you want.
I'm more than fine with "ordinary results," because ordinary stock market results are GREAT. I've made right on 11% annual return average since 1989. That is "ordinary results" as it is just barely higher than stocks in general during that time. My portfolio is what it is not due to chasing extraordinary results, but just ordinary ones...starting investing as soon as I had a full time job out of college and NEVER NOT investing, and save for a couple years there, ALWAYS doing 15% or more of our income not including any matching either of us got (which wasn't always because I wasn't always working for a company and neither was The Lovely Mrs. Flagpole). Most people don't do that. Studies show that 23% of workers don't even take full advantage of company matching in a 401k, and that's usually as little as contributing 3% to 6%.
If you want to be more risky to try to get bigger returns, go ahead. You might very well get those bigger returns. For me, the hay is in the barn and has been for a long time. I have more than I need.
Did you read what I wrote on this thread a couple of weeks back about this?
As I said, he said that the index would take a massive downturn and even hit some level and he noted a benchmark within the next two years of that date.
He did not say it would be at that level two years from then (Nov. 2021 I think it was). His wording was that it would see that level within a given timeframe - before then.
So, what happened?
He predicted something like a 60% drop from current levels within two years. And instead it had a massive drop, but only to 30% within the two years.
So, he correctly called the direction and somewhat correctly called the magnitude right in that it would be massive. But he was incorrect about that exact level to which it would drop.
Do we need to be so exacting? Is that the point? He called for a massive drop within a couple of years and it did in fact drop, as he said. So he threw in some numbers for emphasis and it fell short of that mark. But it did fall massively, and that is what matters most, frankly, without being overly pedantic about it, which I am prone to say, we are being...
The call I'm tallking about is the one he was so sure of that he asked agip to bookmark the page. He called in February 2023 for the S&P 500 to be at or near 3,000 even if we didn't have a recession. It was at 3,991 when he made that call, and it is at 4,754 now. HUGE miss. Permabears will be right once in a great while, because the market DOES drop. Even in your expample where you say he was right, he was more bearish than what was reality. Of course he was, because he's a permabear.
Dude, he made a HUGELY wrong call in February 2023 about the S&P 500...about as wrong as a person could be. I recorded the facts. I'm not entertaining any other call he made.
Okay, fair enough. And I misunderstood in that case, and I apologize that being the case. I though we were talking about a call he made in 2021, Dec.
And in fact, a call like that this year is truly wrong.
The call I'm tallking about is the one he was so sure of that he asked agip to bookmark the page. He called in February 2023 for the S&P 500 to be at or near 3,000 even if we didn't have a recession. It was at 3,991 when he made that call, and it is at 4,754 now. HUGE miss. Permabears will be right once in a great while, because the market DOES drop. Even in your expample where you say he was right, he was more bearish than what was reality. Of course he was, because he's a permabear.
Dude, he made a HUGELY wrong call in February 2023 about the S&P 500...about as wrong as a person could be. I recorded the facts. I'm not entertaining any other call he made.
Okay, fair enough. And I misunderstood in that case, and I apologize that being the case. I though we were talking about a call he made in 2021, Dec.
And in fact, a call like that this year is truly wrong.
You may be the only person other than me on Letsrun to ever apologize. I accept your apology, but it wasn't even needed in this case. You were just mistaken about the case at hand, and you are allowed to be mistaken. I am happy for you though that you now see the light.
Okay, fair enough. And I misunderstood in that case, and I apologize that being the case. I though we were talking about a call he made in 2021, Dec.
And in fact, a call like that this year is truly wrong.
You may be the only person other than me on Letsrun to ever apologize. I accept your apology, but it wasn't even needed in this case. You were just mistaken about the case at hand, and you are allowed to be mistaken. I am happy for you though that you now see the light.
And for the record, for any of you who need to see the light, I'm carrying the torch.
Okay, fair enough. And I misunderstood in that case, and I apologize that being the case. I though we were talking about a call he made in 2021, Dec.
And in fact, a call like that this year is truly wrong.
You may be the only person other than me on Letsrun to ever apologize. I accept your apology, but it wasn't even needed in this case. You were just mistaken about the case at hand, and you are allowed to be mistaken. I am happy for you though that you now see the light.
Yeah, but I wouldn't go so far about seeing the light thing.
We still disagree on trying to time the market.
Your bias is to not even try and I am prone to try. So, I wouldn't get too carried away about any revelations in this regard.
As I've said before, Igy called for a massive downturn, and guess what, we had a downturn that was astounding. Maybe not to the level that he bravely stipulated, but a huge downturn nonethelss.
And what is more important, really? Knowing some exact NAV or the fact that the market was to make a massive move.
To this investor, I say the latter. To Igy's credit.
The point is to understand where we were headed and if a dollar NAV was thrown in there, fine, sweat the details. Knock yourself out.
I, on the other hand, am willing to give credit where credit is due, and Igy saw that a longstanding runaway bull market was about to pivot on a dime and dive. And it did. And we are just now getting back to the levels it was at the time he made the wise prediction.
Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn.
As I've said before, Igy called for a massive downturn, and guess what, we had a downturn that was astounding. Maybe not to the level that he bravely stipulated, but a huge downturn nonethelss.
And what is more important, really? Knowing some exact NAV or the fact that the market was to make a massive move.
To this investor, I say the latter. To Igy's credit.
The point is to understand where we were headed and if a dollar NAV was thrown in there, fine, sweat the details. Knock yourself out.
I, on the other hand, am willing to give credit where credit is due, and Igy saw that a longstanding runaway bull market was about to pivot on a dime and dive. And it did. And we are just now getting back to the levels it was at the time he made the wise prediction.
Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn.
I agree in principal in regard to said poster, regarding the entirety of their forecasts. Of course, they would say that the inevitable has yet to transpire, but it will (in their opinion).
You may be the only person other than me on Letsrun to ever apologize. I accept your apology, but it wasn't even needed in this case. You were just mistaken about the case at hand, and you are allowed to be mistaken. I am happy for you though that you now see the light.
And for the record, for any of you who need to see the light, I'm carrying the torch.
You may be the only person other than me on Letsrun to ever apologize. I accept your apology, but it wasn't even needed in this case. You were just mistaken about the case at hand, and you are allowed to be mistaken. I am happy for you though that you now see the light.
Yeah, but I wouldn't go so far about seeing the light thing.
We still disagree on trying to time the market.
Your bias is to not even try and I am prone to try. So, I wouldn't get too carried away about any revelations in this regard.
I meant only that you saw the light about being mistaken about what we were talking about. You invest the way you want. I might think it's foolish (and if you ONLY invest by chasing peaks and valleys, it is), but I couldn't care less how you invest.
I don't have a "bias." I decided long ago that I wanted to invest a huge amount of money over time but not have the ups and the downs of the stock market take any part of my regular thought or concern. So, investing in the most proven way, which is also the most passive way, was the way for me. I've got too many places to go to be all cool and sh!t to be concerned about how the stock market is doing.
I don't know how old you are or how long you've been investing, but if you've done better than ~11% annually since 1989, then more power to you. If you haven't, then well, that's what you get for chasing peaks and valleys.
Then mission accomplished! I do like to test my writing ability on ocassion.
Flagpole led 600,000 people out of Egypt in the middle of the night. God did not lead Flagpole and the Israelites through enemy land. Rather He led them through the desert toward the Red Sea as they journeyed to the Promised Land. God led His people with a pillar of clouds during the day, and a pillar of fire at night. Following these incredible sights would remind them that God was always with them, guiding them each step of the way on their journey to the Promised Land. And for the record, for any of you who need to see the light, Flagpole was carrying the torch.
Flagpole, Sally, Seattle, agip, and igy have been repeating their viewpoints over and over and over again for the past decade or 2.
We get it. Flagpole invests at least 15% in mutual funds. Live below your means. Fall in love with some cheap hatchbacks for your kids. By the way Kia Soul sucks as mine recently got stolen but before that, it was a good car. And in your 50s, you can retire.
Igy thinks market’s going to crash every year. When it doesn’t, it’s because investors are irrational.
Agip likes to report about the market. He usually thinks market will go up.
Sally likes to diversify and thinks the market will go up in the long run. But having said that, he likes to gamble a little so not sure if he actually follows his own advice.
Seattle seems to invest like Agip but also likes to time the market to try to beat it. But in the long run, not sure if that has actually worked or not.
Folks, this basically sums up the thread and will this will continue for another 20 years. Flagpole will be boasting how he is so rich when he is in his 70s .
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