Ghost of Igloi wrote:
One more day like today and I will be positive on my leveraged shorts. :-)
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Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
One more day like today and I will be positive on my leveraged shorts. :-)
So short sellers lost $178 bil. so far this year, but they made $300 bil. in 2022.
Ah, well, I guess you can't write-off short selling as a viable strategy altogether, can you?
For a longer term assessment, I found the following to be useful:
"But even with the huge win in 2022, short sellers still lag in recent history. In the past five years, an average annual return for short sellers was a loss of 4.4% while the Dow gained 6.8%, the S&P 500 rose 9.3% and the Nasdaq climbed 12.5%."I remember one article I read advocating for shorting as a legitimate way to play the market, and the writer pointed out that if you were use the analogy of driving to a place, you wouldn't limit yourself to only left-hand turns to the exclusion of right-hand turns when appropriate, would you?
link: .10 -
I would assume a good portion of the short sales are portfolio hedges, so bigger gains on the other side.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I would assume a good portion of the short sales are portfolio hedges, so bigger gains on the other side.
Good point.
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Damn! Yesterday was harsh. Read something like the worst day since Sept. something. Those last two hours of trading.
But today it's clawing back. Nas. down 1.5% yesterday but back up 1.3% going into today's close.
Volatility, no doubt in part by thin trading volumes pre-Holiday, traders heading out or already gone.
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Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
One more day like today and I will be positive on my leveraged shorts. :-)
Hard cheese for Igy!
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Iggy are you still predicting sub-3000 SP500?
It seems to be going in the opposite direction as your prediction.
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Swaglord369 wrote:
Iggy are you still predicting sub-3000 SP500?
It seems to be going in the opposite direction as your prediction.
I am sure Flagpole will be providing updates as the new year approaches but looking at 4,770 now. It has a long way to go until it reaches 3,000.
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Sally Vix wrote:
Swaglord369 wrote:
Iggy are you still predicting sub-3000 SP500?
It seems to be going in the opposite direction as your prediction.
I am sure Flagpole will be providing updates as the new year approaches but looking at 4,770 now. It has a long way to go until it reaches 3,000.
Well as long as investors trust that printing $Trillions to underwrite a fake market comes at no cost I will remain wrong. The sustainability and wisdom of doing so seems tenuous to me. As such I am currently holding a 22% leveraged short position. As previously stated that is balanced by a substantially larger position in EM Bond CEFs which have kept pace with the general market. My belief is over spring the market will test 4,200, a significant break from there will take us to new market cycle lows.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.00 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
I am sure Flagpole will be providing updates as the new year approaches but looking at 4,770 now. It has a long way to go until it reaches 3,000.
Well as long as investors trust that printing $Trillions to underwrite a fake market comes at no cost I will remain wrong. The sustainability and wisdom of doing so seems tenuous to me. As such I am currently holding a 22% leveraged short position. As previously stated that is balanced by a substantially larger position in EM Bond CEFs which have kept pace with the general market. My belief is over spring the market will test 4,200, a significant break from there will take us to new market cycle lows.
To make it simple - you were wrong. Yes?
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Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Well as long as investors trust that printing $Trillions to underwrite a fake market comes at no cost I will remain wrong. The sustainability and wisdom of doing so seems tenuous to me. As such I am currently holding a 22% leveraged short position. As previously stated that is balanced by a substantially larger position in EM Bond CEFs which have kept pace with the general market. My belief is over spring the market will test 4,200, a significant break from there will take us to new market cycle lows.
To make it simple - you were wrong. Yes?
Evidently I was far too gracious a year ago.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.00 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
To make it simple - you were wrong. Yes?
Evidently I was far too gracious a year ago.
You called for a 3,000 S& P - you were wrong, yes?
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Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Evidently I was far too gracious a year ago.
You called for a 3,000 S& P - you were wrong, yes?
OK, you are blocked on my feed.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
You called for a 3,000 S& P - you were wrong, yes?
OK, you are blocked on my feed.
Why blocked? You called for 3,000. Why would you block me?
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Well as long as investors trust that printing $Trillions to underwrite a fake market …
So if I sell now, will my payment be in fake money?
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The call terms are clearly outlined. I would assume there were plenty of bonds without call or extended terms.
Nope. There aren't. The game is stacked for the House. Terms say they can call it but no more
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Newname wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The call terms are clearly outlined. I would assume there were plenty of bonds without call or extended terms.
Nope. There aren't. The game is stacked for the House. Terms say they can call it but no more
The bond buyer ought to be able to cash in his bond for face value any time after the callable date for a level playing field
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Newname wrote:
Newname wrote:
Nope. There aren't. The game is stacked for the House. Terms say they can call it but no more
The bond buyer ought to be able to cash in his bond for face value any time after the callable date for a level playing field
Game is only stacked against the little guy because they have less money to lose. There is no master plan other than stupid human frailty.
In regards to bonds, there were plenty available that could have been bought months ago, sold today up 10%. What is that annualized?
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Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Well as long as investors trust that printing $Trillions to underwrite a fake market comes at no cost I will remain wrong. The sustainability and wisdom of doing so seems tenuous to me. As such I am currently holding a 22% leveraged short position. As previously stated that is balanced by a substantially larger position in EM Bond CEFs which have kept pace with the general market. My belief is over spring the market will test 4,200, a significant break from there will take us to new market cycle lows.
To make it simple - you were wrong. Yes?
A few open market days left in the year, but yes, he was wrong. I will report the final when it is time, and I will do so on a factual basis. The lesson here isn't to rip on Igy, and you, Sally, should refrain from being so gleeful that someone was wrong. Not a good look. Not a good way to go about your life.
I will report the final number. My reporting will be black and white and free of emotion or scorn.
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Hey, Igy, I heard on the radio today how NFTs were faring, and I thought of you, since you forecasted long ago how little you thought of them.
Good call.
So it seems, according to the news today, that 95% are worthless.
Maybe one of the many documentarians can fact check that prediction you made because you were spot-on.
Now don't ask me what it stands for....Non-Fungible Token or something to that effect, whatever that's supposed to mean.
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