Down goes the Dow

2000 Dot-com bubble AND 2008 housing bubble, no? Am I remembering wrong?

He started calling for a crash in early 1994, before that he was a Bull.

Yes:

It's the old broken watch scenario. If you get up every morning and predict a market crash, one day you'll be right.

Powell speaking now in FOMC and the markets liking what they are hearing. Good stuff.

Powell: "Maybe people bought so much stuff they temporarily don't want to buy more stuff"

Quadruple leveraged SNP 500 ETN proposed. Any takers?

finance.yahoo.com

First Quadruple Leveraged S&P 500 ETN Proposed

MAX pushes the envelope on risk and reward with XXXX product.

Open link

The market was rocking and rolling in the 1990s. Every year was great.

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns

"Quadruple leveraged SNP 500 ETN" is another way of saying lose your shirt, lose your knickers, lose your home and lose your wife. Not necessarily in that order.

Direxion triple leveraged ETFs - I remember the day they came out, 2008. We had a discussion about it on this thread with Racket, for that matter, a few years ago. Racket prefers options instead.

I read some advice at that time for trading them which I found interesting. One was to never double down on one if you are going into the red (losses). Another was be ready to cut your losses if goes the wrong way, and I think the level they suggested was at a 15% loss from the buying price.

But do understand that the proposed fund is an ETN (a note, like a bond), and the triple leveraged commodities are ETFs (exchange traded funds), There are big differences, and they get reported differently on taxes. And the ETN does not have all that loosey-goosey tracking that goes on with leveraged ETFs and their daily rebalancing, which makes them not strictly calibrated to the index they are supposed to track.

Just some things to consider.

Doesn't look like the big crash is gonna happen today. Maybe tomorrow?

Igy has about 2-and-a-half weeks for the S & P 500 to drop close to 40%. It has happened. The Dutch tulip asset bubble burst and dropped like 99% in a day.

Stocks only go up

I have been selling into today's strength.

Selling my losers on the year, that is. Have recovered quite a bit, my main sell up nearly 5%. Closed out 4 positions completely.

A bull market is coming, huh? Well, as much as I don't believe in permabears and their calls for a bear market, I don't believe in calls for a bull market either. Neither call is important. ~73% of years go up. ~27% of years go down. Invest today what you don't need so that you have money later on when there is no household income.

Now, regarding a bull market call for 2024, I WILL say that's a bold call since 2023 has already been so spectacular. Let's look at some DEETS!:

These are all YTD for 2023:

Dow: UP 12.67%

S&P 500: UP 23.53%

NASDAQ: UP 42.59%

FLAGPOLE: UP 21.53% (should be pretty clear by not that I'm not tech-heavy in my holdings as I have been accused of being). I am just well-diversified.

Any one of the above is great. So, to call a bull market for 2024 on the heels of such a good 2023 is bold. I neither agree nor disagree with the call as I couldn't care less what happens in such a short period of time.

Good things to consider.

I ventured a guess of the 2 best before digging into the article, and my guess was Nvidia and Microsoft, which turned out to be first and fifth (instead of first and second). Honestly, I see very good opportunities for Microsoft given the changing tech landscape.

But as for the Bull Market next year, I am optimistic, and that is because recession fears easing, interest raising seems to be unlikely and lowering rates is just a matter or when (finally).

Consider that the new year will bring new year's resolutions, and I believe, retail investors realizing they need to get on board to the market rally. And I believe the market won't peak until they do. This rally has legs, imo.

cnn.com

Analysis: Retail investors are sitting out the stock resurgence | CNN Business

Krystal Hur

This year’s stock rally is back on course. Not everyone’s on board.

Open link

Igy, it's just a hunch, but these kinds of sustained rallies don't often turn on a dime. I would be careful on bear market bets.