twitter poll result from summer 2022. Lots of pessimism. So far the poll is correct - no ATH for SP500. But very close right now!
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Dani Burger
@daniburgz
🚨THE FIRST BIG BANK TO CALL A US RECESSION
Detusche Bank says:
*Recession in '23
*Stocks to fall 20% by summer '23
*Unemployment to 4.9% in '24
*10yr yields to hit 3.3% this year5:33 AM · Apr 6, 2022
No recession
Stocks soared
unemployment stayed very low
10 year yields had a 2-handle when this tweet was written...yields went to 5% So they got that one right.
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Sold some EMD up 24% and FAX up 21% with proceeds to SOXS and TECS. If this run continues I will be wrong, but my substantially larger EM Bond CEFs would likely prosper as well. I believe interest rates will move higher, equity markets lower, on valuation and technicals.
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52 week highs
Dow
SP500
Nasdaq
This inflation report is generally being seen by Inflation Nowcast as a positive. Core numbers came down materially afterwards. Interest rates down too.
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Sally Vix wrote:
agip wrote:
Don't let people tell you the sell side is permabullish.
SP500 total return is 20% since this tweet.
Ryan Detrick, CMT
@RyanDetrick
Here are some quick hits on what large institutions are saying about '23.
Morgan Stanley - Bear not over and SPX to go to 3,000-3,300
BAC - SPX to 3,000
DB - SPX down 25% in Q3IGY - SPX no higher than 3,000 by 12/31/2023
JPM - "retest the lows"
BMO - "possible to retest the cycle lows"
Ton of bad news priced in here imo.
9:14 PM · Dec 11, 2022You forgot one.
That's not what he said.
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agip wrote:
52 week highs
Dow
SP500
Nasdaq
This inflation report is generally being seen by Inflation Nowcast as a positive. Core numbers came down materially afterwards. Interest rates down too.
Okay, but the S & P 500 is 3.5% off it's all time high, and the Nasdaq is almost 10% from it's all time high.
As for the Dow, well, who would bother to follow that?!
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seattle prattle wrote:
As for the Dow, well, who would bother to follow that?!
Have you checked the title of this thread lately?
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wondering wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
As for the Dow, well, who would bother to follow that?!
Have you checked the title of this thread lately?
Ok, fair enough. Got me there. On a post that was framed something like 10 years ago.
To re-phrase the question: in this day and age, who would bother to follow the Dow?
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seattle prattle wrote:
wondering wrote:
Have you checked the title of this thread lately?
Ok, fair enough. Got me there. On a post that was framed something like 10 years ago.
To re-phrase the question: in this day and age, who would bother to follow the Dow?
A well known DGTD poster has benchmarked the Dow for 34 years even though his account more accurately tracks the S&P 500. Most investors are mimicking the Mag Seven, so “What me worry?”
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Most investors are mimicking the Mag Seven, so “What me worry?”
That’s smarter than investing in Hussman.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Ok, fair enough. Got me there. On a post that was framed something like 10 years ago.
To re-phrase the question: in this day and age, who would bother to follow the Dow?
A well known DGTD poster has benchmarked the Dow for 34 years even though his account more accurately tracks the S&P 500. Most investors are mimicking the Mag Seven, so “What me worry?”
Yepper. And said poster will tell you how they are not overweighed in Magnificent Seven exposure.
Now that's a winning hand.
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Stater of the obvious wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Most investors are mimicking the Mag Seven, so “What me worry?”
That’s smarter than investing in Hussman.
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Stater of the obvious wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Most investors are mimicking the Mag Seven, so “What me worry?”
That’s smarter than investing in Hussman.
The NASDAQ, SPX and Dow are up YTD 37%, 21% and 10%, respectively. Meanwhile, Hussman Strategic is, sigh, down 11% YTD.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Stater of the obvious wrote:
That’s smarter than investing in Hussman.
Why doesn't he answer his own question ... what was the duration of these asset "bubbles" before they burst? And outside of the Great Depression and Dot-com bubble, the US stock market has largely been unaffected by the "burst" of these bubbles.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Stater of the obvious wrote:
That’s smarter than investing in Hussman.
Doubling down on stupid.
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Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Why doesn't he answer his own question ... what was the duration of these asset "bubbles" before they burst? And outside of the Great Depression and Dot-com bubble, the US stock market has largely been unaffected by the "burst" of these bubbles.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Wasn't he saying the same thing (SPX at record extreme) 8 years ago?
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