This guy with 400k followers...the market had already bottomed... when he wrote this when the SPX was at around 3900. Never got lower than that.
Earnings estimates are far higher than $185 too.
Alf @MacroAlf I expect the S&P 500 to ultimately bottom at around 3,250 in this prolonged bear market. Earnings should ultimately trough at around $185 (~ minus 20%), but multiples and earnings rarely bottom together as the Fed will be cutting way before EPS bottom.
Similar but a bit too aggressive from MS. Looks like they thought a recession would bring down prices and interest rates. Never got the recession so no rate cuts and CPI still at 3.0%. But got the directions right.
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla By December of next year, Morgan Stanley sees: 1. Annual #CPI BELOW Fed 2% target 2. Outright deflation in core goods 3. FOMC beginning rate cuts
Similar but a bit too aggressive from MS. Looks like they thought a recession would bring down prices and interest rates. Never got the recession so no rate cuts and CPI still at 3.0%. But got the directions right.
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla By December of next year, Morgan Stanley sees: 1. Annual #CPI BELOW Fed 2% target 2. Outright deflation in core goods 3. FOMC beginning rate cuts
8:47 PM · Nov 13, 2022
Deflation is generally less favorable than inflation.
Sharp rise in this recession predictor. It's been quiet for a long time so not a lot of false alarms from this one.
I do think we are on recession watch more than we hear....we have barely measurable growth right now and econ momentum is not great. And of course much of the problem is that a barnburner of a economy over the summer pulled forward growth we might have been having now. A recession isn't so bad if it just means a plateuing after sharp growth. And that might be what we are having now.
If you posters had to pick 1 US stock or fund with which to realize 10k annual dividends for 5 years going forward, which one would it be and why?
I'd be satisfied with capital appreciation just matching inflation, and don't want some fund like VOO where I would have to put down over 700k to get that 10k annual divvy.
I'd like to max out my 10k qualified dividends next year.
Average job, average runner. No-name school. Average coaching results. Average life. I didn’t finish reading your essay as nobody cares lol. Insecurity is a strong driving force.
I am in my 60's grew up in New England farm country. when I was young, I knew lots of old time farmers and laborers who were born around the turn of the century who loved working. It was their life. Tremendous work ethic and all seemed very happy. If you are doing what you love and you are brought up with a strong work ethic than work is not drudgery. I spent my young years working on a big apple and fruit farm work was labor intensive, but I loved it . There is nothing like picking apples on a cool September day. I still think very fondly of those years. Now Yuppies from Boston and other rich suburbs come and pay to do the thing I used to get paid to do.
Work doesn't have to be drudgery for you not to want to do it anymore. MOST OF THE TIME it's a very boring person who continues to work when they don't have to. Movies and shows to watch. Video games to play. Guitars to play. Keyboards to play. Bowling. Hiking. Running. Traveling. Books to read. Mid day at the dog park with the dog. It's one thing to convince yourself that you like a certain job when you have to have a job. It's another thing to actually decide you'd rather take orders from someone else when you don't have to. MOST people who work once they have enough money to stop are boring. There are exceptions, and most of those involve exceptional jobs.
I am in my 60's grew up in New England farm country. when I was young, I knew lots of old time farmers and laborers who were born around the turn of the century who loved working. It was their life. Tremendous work ethic and all seemed very happy. If you are doing what you love and you are brought up with a strong work ethic than work is not drudgery. I spent my young years working on a big apple and fruit farm work was labor intensive, but I loved it . There is nothing like picking apples on a cool September day. I still think very fondly of those years. Now Yuppies from Boston and other rich suburbs come and pay to do the thing I used to get paid to do.
Work doesn't have to be drudgery for you not to want to do it anymore. MOST OF THE TIME it's a very boring person who continues to work when they don't have to. Movies and shows to watch. Video games to play. Guitars to play. Keyboards to play. Bowling. Hiking. Running. Traveling. Books to read. Mid day at the dog park with the dog. It's one thing to convince yourself that you like a certain job when you have to have a job. It's another thing to actually decide you'd rather take orders from someone else when you don't have to. MOST people who work once they have enough money to stop are boring. There are exceptions, and most of those involve exceptional jobs.
I guess you missed the day they taught about doing something for altruistic reasons, like serving a purpose and helping others.
But thanks for sharing this with us in the wrong thread.
Average job, average runner. No-name school. Average coaching results. Average life. I didn’t finish reading your essay as nobody cares lol. Insecurity is a strong driving force.
I thought you were in jail. Out on release pending trial?
If you posters had to pick 1 US stock or fund with which to realize 10k annual dividends for 5 years going forward, which one would it be and why?
I'd be satisfied with capital appreciation just matching inflation, and don't want some fund like VOO where I would have to put down over 700k to get that 10k annual divvy.
I'd like to max out my 10k qualified dividends next year.
Thanks in advance for your answers.
I don't want to suggest a single fund, but I'd look at:
the Wisdom Tree family of ETFs. They focus on dividends as a strategy and do a good job with their products.
SCHD, the Schwab dividend fund
VYM, Vanguard High Dividend Fund
Note that 2023 has been a miserable year for most dividend-centric funds, so look at longer-term returns.
If you posters had to pick 1 US stock or fund with which to realize 10k annual dividends for 5 years going forward, which one would it be and why?
I'd be satisfied with capital appreciation just matching inflation, and don't want some fund like VOO where I would have to put down over 700k to get that 10k annual divvy.
I'd like to max out my 10k qualified dividends next year.
Thanks in advance for your answers.
5 year treasury is yielding 4.24%, buy one for 250k and that should do it.
If you posters had to pick 1 US stock or fund with which to realize 10k annual dividends for 5 years going forward, which one would it be and why?
I'd be satisfied with capital appreciation just matching inflation, and don't want some fund like VOO where I would have to put down over 700k to get that 10k annual divvy.
I'd like to max out my 10k qualified dividends next year.
Thanks in advance for your answers.
5 year treasury is yielding 4.24%, buy one for 250k and that should do it.
I'm no tax expert but the poster asked for 'qualified dividends' but interest from US Treasuries is not that.
Don't let people tell you the sell side is permabullish.
SP500 total return is 20% since this tweet.
Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick Here are some quick hits on what large institutions are saying about '23. Morgan Stanley - Bear not over and SPX to go to 3,000-3,300 BAC - SPX to 3,000 DB - SPX down 25% in Q3 JPM - "retest the lows" BMO - "possible to retest the cycle lows" Ton of bad news priced in here imo. 9:14 PM · Dec 11, 2022
Don't let people tell you the sell side is permabullish.
SP500 total return is 20% since this tweet.
Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick Here are some quick hits on what large institutions are saying about '23. Morgan Stanley - Bear not over and SPX to go to 3,000-3,300 BAC - SPX to 3,000 DB - SPX down 25% in Q3
IGY - SPX no higher than 3,000 by 12/31/2023 JPM - "retest the lows" BMO - "possible to retest the cycle lows" Ton of bad news priced in here imo. 9:14 PM · Dec 11, 2022
GURGAVIN @gurgavin NVIDIA CEO JUST SOLD $50 MILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF NVIDIA SHARES LAST TIME HE SOLD SHARES NVIDIA WENT DOWN 60% IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS $NVDA
12:22 PM · Sep 8, 2023 · 777.1K Views
This post was edited 18 seconds after it was posted.
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