Grantham is the wrongest predictor in the universe, methinks.
Here he is in Jan 2023 predicting at best SP500 2500. We're at 4600ish. That's a heck of a miss, to paraphrase Grantham himself. I would sigh but the guy is famous for, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, putting his kids money into emerging market stocks because the West was doomed. That money has made very little if anything while the US has rocketed. Puts a point on it - how fear and bad financial decisions can hurt many lives. I mean Americans would virtually all be born millionaires if their parents and grandparents had saved 10% of their pay into a 401k and worked for 45 years. They didn't - they are too afraid, it was the wrong time.
Those who pontificate about the stock market are never to be listened to...not those here who do it, and not those who do it for a living. It's all a crapshoot and BS. Invest the money you don't need today so that when your household no longer has income, you will have money to spend. That's it. The long game is the only game to play, and you do that regardless of what ANYONE says about the future.
I should be clear...when I say "pontificate about the stock market", I mean making any SPECIFIC calls of ups and downs over a short period of time. It's just all BS. In about three weeks, we will see how our resident permabear/pontificator did with his 2023 call.
I particularly love that the song was written by Robertson…
Authorship of much of The Band’s music, including this song, has long been a contentious issue. Though no one disputes RR’s writing contributions, he has been accused by other band members (Levon in particular) of taking more credit than he deserves. RR’s control of the business side of the band proved to be their undoing. In the end, he was not very popular with his band mates.
Did you know that Robbie Robertson passed in August?
I bet the fact that he was so successful post break-up of The Band is another reason he got so much ill will from his bandmates. I mean, Scorsese sets out to da a movie about their band, The Last Waltz, and he reaches out to Robertson in particular to work with on it, and then goes on to do years of collaborating with Robertson on other films on the music production of them. And they were biggies - Raging Bull, The Color of Money, The King of Comedy, etc. And this is on top of doing some music production and collaboration with some well-known rockers.
Authorship of much of The Band’s music, including this song, has long been a contentious issue. Though no one disputes RR’s writing contributions, he has been accused by other band members (Levon in particular) of taking more credit than he deserves. RR’s control of the business side of the band proved to be their undoing. In the end, he was not very popular with his band mates.
Did you know that Robbie Robertson passed in August?
I bet the fact that he was so successful post break-up of The Band is another reason he got so much ill will from his bandmates. I mean, Scorsese sets out to da a movie about their band, The Last Waltz, and he reaches out to Robertson in particular to work with on it, and then goes on to do years of collaborating with Robertson on other films on the music production of them. And they were biggies - Raging Bull, The Color of Money, The King of Comedy, etc. And this is on top of doing some music production and collaboration with some well-known rockers.
Who wouldn't be unnerved?
Kind of like DGTD posters and Flagpole’s success beating the Dow. Who wouldn’t be jealous?
Authorship of much of The Band’s music, including this song, has long been a contentious issue. Though no one disputes RR’s writing contributions, he has been accused by other band members (Levon in particular) of taking more credit than he deserves. RR’s control of the business side of the band proved to be their undoing. In the end, he was not very popular with his band mates.
Did you know that Robbie Robertson passed in August?
I bet the fact that he was so successful post break-up of The Band is another reason he got so much ill will from his bandmates. I mean, Scorsese sets out to da a movie about their band, The Last Waltz, and he reaches out to Robertson in particular to work with on it, and then goes on to do years of collaborating with Robertson on other films on the music production of them. And they were biggies - Raging Bull, The Color of Money, The King of Comedy, etc. And this is on top of doing some music production and collaboration with some well-known rockers.
Who wouldn't be unnerved?
Read Levon’s autobiography. The only band member who wanted to do “The Last Waltz” was RR. The rest of them wanted to keep on touring (and they did). As I recall, RR and Scorsese were actually living together at the time and they hatched the idea without input from the others. Levon had some interesting statistics for the amount of screen time RR got compared with that of his band mates. RR left The Band; they didn’t break up.
Jobs number came in fine - unemployment rate actually fell, hours worked climbed. Will be very interesting to see how stocks react to this. My thesis is that stocks are looking for signs we are not falling into recession. If so, this strong report should be taken ok by stocks.
the difference is that up until recently good news was bad for stocks because it was viewed as inflationary. But inflation is over and we are on **recession** watch now. I think, anyway.
These switches are hard to predict and messy but money can be made if you are early to the change instead of late.
I hear you, and I think the markets now are particularly tuned in for more data which will enlighten traders as to what the Fed will do and when. They are just so eager for when the cuts will start. And they don't completely trust Powell to be forthcoming in forecasting it. They just want to see data that will steer his hand/decisions.
Did you know that Robbie Robertson passed in August?
I bet the fact that he was so successful post break-up of The Band is another reason he got so much ill will from his bandmates. I mean, Scorsese sets out to da a movie about their band, The Last Waltz, and he reaches out to Robertson in particular to work with on it, and then goes on to do years of collaborating with Robertson on other films on the music production of them. And they were biggies - Raging Bull, The Color of Money, The King of Comedy, etc. And this is on top of doing some music production and collaboration with some well-known rockers.
Who wouldn't be unnerved?
Read Levon’s autobiography. The only band member who wanted to do “The Last Waltz” was RR. The rest of them wanted to keep on touring (and they did). As I recall, RR and Scorsese were actually living together at the time and they hatched the idea without input from the others. Levon had some interesting statistics for the amount of screen time RR got compared with that of his band mates. RR left The Band; they didn’t break up.
Good stuff.
I am going to read the book, just downloaded it. Thx.
But before I leave the subject, I do want to acknowledge Garth Hudson, the keyboardist for The Band, since I think he is often overlooked with all the personalities. But get the sense that his genius and influence cannot be over-stated when it comes to his contribution to the structure of their songs and music and his innate sense in leading the band.
Last I heard, he was the only one still alive, which is surprising in that he was considered the old guy by his bandmates.
I am going to read the book, just downloaded it. Thx.
But before I leave the subject, I do want to acknowledge Garth Hudson, the keyboardist for The Band, since I think he is often overlooked with all the personalities. But get the sense that his genius and influence cannot be over-stated when it comes to his contribution to the structure of their songs and music and his innate sense in leading the band.
Last I heard, he was the only one still alive, which is surprising in that he was considered the old guy by his bandmates.
When you read the book, you will learn that your appreciation of Garth Hudson was very much shared by Leon. Enjoy!
Many people enjoy working. Do you want Igy to stay home watching The View all day long?
1) I do not understand why anyone would enjoy working for someone else...or even for themselves if they'd rather be doing something else...and I DO think most people would rather be doing something else.
2) You don't have to watch The View. There are a TON of things to do in this world.
3) I think that people who "like to work" are either very boring people who don't know how to entertain themselves, or they say they like to work because they need the money and want to pretend they like working to make it appear not as sad.
I am in my 60's grew up in New England farm country. when I was young, I knew lots of old time farmers and laborers who were born around the turn of the century who loved working. It was their life. Tremendous work ethic and all seemed very happy. If you are doing what you love and you are brought up with a strong work ethic than work is not drudgery. I spent my young years working on a big apple and fruit farm work was labor intensive, but I loved it . There is nothing like picking apples on a cool September day. I still think very fondly of those years. Now Yuppies from Boston and other rich suburbs come and pay to do the thing I used to get paid to do.
I loved my work and for a long time imagined that in retirement I would continue to work in my field in some capacity (part time, pro bono) as a hobby. Now that I'm actually retired, I find that I enjoy "not work" more than I loved "work" and can't see voluntarily getting back into the rat race and sticking my head back into the wood chipper every day. Biggest improvements in retirement for me have been the complete absence of work-related stress and nearly no email. I had no real idea how much annoyance and stress email brought to my life until it was gone.
The Igy work thing is a Sally-Igy joke. I retired October 1, 2020 age 70 after a 24 year career at Morgan Stanley, previously a 19 year career as a college track coach, last at University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, and before that working under the vice president of marketing at Northrop Corporation Aircraft Division for 2 years.
The most rewarding work was coaching. Funnily enough spent a brief time yesterday chatting with a former athlete I hadn't spoken to since 1996. Got his phone number from another athlete and surprised him at work. The most interesting was financial services, hired by then Dean Witter, trained at World Trade Center II for three weeks in 1997.
Fortunately for me I had a business partner that was several decades younger whom I could pass on a portion of the business at my retirement. So at age 65 I began to gradually reduce my office time, giving him increasingly larger portion of the income. Early in 2018 I was diagnosed with lymphoma and spent a good portion of that year In between chemotherapy, diagnosis, or radiation treatments. At the time having a corporate medical coverage was a great benefit, and the discounted cost was over $500,000, with my portion $2,000.
The other incidental benefit was the Covid work from home routine I found myself in the last six months of employment. This gave my wife a period to adjust to me being around the house more, and for me as well.
I suppose in many of these things it becomes just a matter of personal preference. I like puttering around the house, and have no desire to travel the world. I do most of the maintenance on the house, know how to use tools, and enjoy putting my skill to use. It doesn’t seem like much, but yesterday I was pruning my rose garden, eight plants completed, and two to go. Previous week I was putting up our Christmas lights, many in our neighborhood hire this out, not nearly as nice as our display, in my opinion.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2023 (with more than 99% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 82% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 62% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
This is interesting! Takeout bid for Macys. There are a lot of companies like Macy's...beat up and dirt cheap. Stock is the same now as in 1996!
Macys:
PE:7
Price to sales: 0.2
EV/EBITDA: 5.5
P/B: 1.1
You could say it deserves a rock bottom valuation. Or you can say that it could trade at a PE of 12 if it were run better.
If we get a few more takeouts of some cheap value stocks...that could start pushing up value in general. Which would be great for the market - to stop relying on tech so much. Is there hidden value in these oldline companies?
WSJ:
An investor group has made a $5.8 billion offer to buy Macy’s M 2.35%increase; green up pointing triangle, in a bid to take the famed department-store chain private after stiff competition from online rivals took a big bite out of its value.
We shopped at Macy’s often years ago, hardly ever now. The company now caters to lower income demographic, we shop Dillard’s instead. Meanwhile Apple stock is the mirror opposite, some for good reason.
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