The Starved Elephant wrote:
While I'm at it, I guess I throw out some rankings. I'll include my rationale
1. Wartburg -- I've been high on them for awhile. Look at my page 1 posts for rationale.
2. WashU -- They have a very low stick in Matteucci, and then return two more top 7 members. One was a sophomore that finished in the 50s and has 14:46 to his name. The other was in the 200 club but steepled 9:07 in May, so I don't think he had his best day at nationals. Behind that, they have a bunch of guys with good track times but not Nationals experience. There's 9:03 steepler, a 14:51 rising sophomore, and two guys who ran 3:51, one of whom made the finals outdoors. I think experience will carry the day for Wartburg, but this WashU squad is very talented, is deep as always, and always seems to be at their best in XC. I could see them winning, but I also could see inexperience keeping them off the podium.
3. Williams -- There's a lot to like here. The Ephs finished in the top 10 last year and return all 7, and most of them appear to have had solid or more than solid track seasons, especially their 1500 squad. However, Ryan Cox was not one of them as he had no track season. He's the big question mark. If he's back close to 100%, Williams could contend to win. Even without him, Aidan Ryan could definitely finish as high as Cox did last year and ameliorate most of that.
4. Pomona -- Generally agree with the sentiment from earlier posts -- they have a deep squad -- but they had one last year, too, along with the guy who finished 3rd place. They finished 7th with Reischling leading them, so I can't bring myself to get too high on the Sagehens. The track times are excellent and give me reason to hope, but I can't help but feel like they peak in March. They never really contended in Reischling's entire tenure and I don't see them suddenly winning nationals once they lose him.
5. NCC -- C'mon, you know who they are. I actually believe they will ultimately finish on the podium, but it would not be fair to rank them there preseason because they did lose 6 of 7. However, they should have a low stick in Osmulski and they have talent behind him that just hasn't gotten to prove their mettle because they were buried behind the juggernaut of the last two years. I think Pommier and Rohr will make huge leaps now that Al Carius will be able to focus on their development since he'll need them. I'm not sure who will round out top 7, but that team has so many bodies. I can't see them finishing worse than 5th, maybe 6th.
6. La Crosse -- Some will be surprised that I have them this low, considering they return 4 of 7 from a team that scored 125, including top national returner Josh Schraeder. But here's the thing. That team really only went 5 deep, and they lose two of those 5, including Thomas Schultz. Without any stellar track times to convince me otherwise, I foresee them having some 5th man issues throughout next season. They'll be a very good team nonetheless.
7. Johns Hopkins -- This team might finally be ready. Pangalozzi is a more than adequate low stick, and he's got a squad behind him. If enough of them step up, the Jays could finally find themselves on the podium they briefly thought they were on last year before the majority of the scores were tallied. Bobby van Allen has proven with the women that he knows how to coach, so if he can apply that to the men, they could be pretty good.
8. Carleton -- The top two of Mueller and Wilkinson will be lethal for the next two years. What do they have behind them? I'm curious to find out, but TFRRS suggests that it's not enough for serious podium contention.
9. RPI -- Yes, Jacques is legit. Falasco is also legit. They are returning 5 of 7. And yes, I understand that the pile up last year really hurt them. That all being said, RPI finished 13th last year with the two O'Conners up front and never really sniffed the podium the previous years they had them, either. I can't see them contending without them.
10. Carnegie Mellon -- This team was a threat to podium last year, and I believe that they will be this year if they put it together. That's the question, though. Will they? They always push WashU to the brink at UAA championships, both in XC and track, but never seem to perform well at nationals in XC, indoors, or outdoors. Looking through some results, their top 5 has historically fluctuated heavily from race to race, indicating that they may be struggling with injuries and peaking at the right time. That said, they return like 5 or 6 guys from the team that was ranked 5th going into nationals last year. I'm sure they'll be ranked in the top ten going in again this year, but it's anyone's guess how they'll do at the meet itself.
A couple of sleeper picks: UChicago, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
One last point. It is really wide open this year and pretty unpredictable. I'm not super confident in my own rankings because of the nature of this year.