Yes, her impression agents need a sale so pushing loan terms, sellers do not want to take a loss so holding on.
No one us taking a loss in this market.
I think I understand the incomplete sentence. In our neighborhood the thought is about to be tested. One year ago a couple from Oregon purchased a home across the street. Zillow says the listing price was down about 20% from the high. The wife spent three months on a remodeling project, likely putting in 5-10% of the purchase price into the house. The retirement age husband moved in with the wife late spring. Around Fourth of July police were called in on a domestic abuse event for which later the husband was arrested. Wife moves out, divorce proceedings begin, and this week things are being sold, and moved. Perhaps the husband will stay, but things are not pointing that direction.
This guy has been pitching a credit crisis for a long long time, with no accuracy. 750k followers! Note panic tone to get clicks.
Small caps have fallen another 2% since the tweet, but corporate bonds have rallied a mighty 5% and spreads between junk and investment quality have reached extremely low levels. I think he is barking up wrong tree about credit issues. Although to his credit, september was a big down month for stocks.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport Small-caps are down nearly 2%. I can not stress this enough. We are at an extremely important juncture and risk is severely elevated this September. A credit event is coming. 9:53 AM · Sep 5, 2023 · 183.7K Views
This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.
Heh. I like his calm tone rather than the panic of the previous tweet but this is one of the worst predictions we've seen. The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet (a clear way 'out'), there has been massive disinflation (not hyperinflation), the economy has roared rather than been depressed, and inflation is back to normal already.
All around horrible tweet. Looking at his feed he seems far more interested in being a Putin simp than investing, to be fair.
Ben Rickert @Ben__Rickert We are coming to the end of the road in terms of what the Federal Reserve can do. They do not have a way out. I believe we are heading into a hyperinflationary depression. I do not see an economic recovery or inflation returning to normal within several years.
here's a serious investor saying in Oct 2022 that it will take years and years to get back down from 8% inflation. Instead, it's taken 13 months. Again, it was different this time. An example when knowing history didn't really help. Although I suppose historians picking the post ww2 inflation as a model (that slowed quickly) worked out...the historians who picked the 1970s as a model have been very wrong headed.
The idea that inflation would fall sharply was laughable to them. But here we are. It happened.
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited Excellent set of charts visualizing how typical inflationary cycles that reach 8% play out over time. Markets pretty much expecting that the Fed achieves a bottom decile outcome in the fiat era. Hard to see the current combo of rates and stocks achieving that outcome:
Patrick Saner @patrick_saner What happens once inflation goes above 8%, as is currently the case? Data since 1920 shows that once CPI >8%, it takes around 2 years (!!!) to even fall beneath 6%. Yet, current consensus expects us to be back at or even below 3% in just two years
On 12/20/21, two years ago, Igy predicted stocks would be down 70-85% in December 2023.
Instead, the SP500 is exactly, precisely where it is today vs where it was on 12/20/21. Add the dividend we'll say there's been a 3% return.
Igy also predicted home prices falling 60-70%. Instead, they are up 12%, going by Case Shiller.
Government bond returns....eyeballing it, looks like down 8%, close to the 10-15% prediction. So that was a good one.
Junk down 3%, not 60-70%.
I'll have to call this an incorrect prediction from Igy, although he was right to be pessimistic in general and almost got his government bond prediction correct.
This is page 2519 if you all want to go back and take a look.
"Never could I imagine this level of insanity. I would say over the next two years stocks down 70-85%, residential real estate down 60-70%, and government bonds down 10-15%, junk more equity like, large number of defaults. Ten year returns stocks down 5%, residential real estate down 4%, and bonds up 1%."
I am going to be quite a bit more supportive of Igy's post and I consider that in all fairness, one needs to take a deeper look, at least in so far as the stock market (not bonds, not real estate) prediction.
First, he said the markets would fall to a certain level and that fall would happen within two years. The markets did fall and precipitously so. He did not say if they would rebound (which they did), he only said that the market was in for a correction, and it would happen within two years - which it did. Grant him that, it did fall, and by a lot.
Igy picked a level - a rather bold move - and those numbers were much higher than what occurred. He said they would drop 70%- 85%, and instead, Nasdaq dropped a more modest -33% and S&P500 -23%. But if we interpret the comment more generally, the Nasdaq dropped an even greater 40% off it's October 2021 high to it low a year later.
Basically, all Igy was saying is something to the extent that the stock market is grossly overvalued and will suffer a massive correction/downturn in the range of 70% - 85%. So, it does do that, but just to a lesser extent of 40% (at least in the case of Nasdaq, slighly less for S&P 500).
Let's put this into perspective - he was making a general call to alarm - there would be a massive downturn and it would happen within a 2 year timeframe. That is what happened. He was correct to that extent.
He over estimated the severity, but make no doubt about it - it was a massive correction, as he was warning. And he was right in that it happened within a 2-year window.
What he missed, at least in so far as that particular prediction, is that it would rebound, though in all fairness, his proclamation does not address that possibility. And he missed the magnitude - his forecast was about double his estimation.
He was right in the direction and the timeframe.
And in my opinion, taken in the context of the time it was given, overall I would say that his forecast was not bad. I say that because he correctly called a massive downturn and he called that it would happen within the correct timeframe. And frankly, that was the central point he was trying to make, without trying to make some overly technical contract out of it.
Igy is a one trick pony. For him it is always, “The sky is falling!” There’s nothing wrong with considering valuations as an important investment metric, but it is not the be-all and end-all that Igy seems to think it is. Valuations are just one part of a complex equation. And recent history suggests they are a small part as stock prices continue rising even amid high valuations.
There are a number of good posters here who regularly offer intriguing insight into what is going on with the markets. I typically enjoy catching up on my occasional visits here. But, as with any message board, there are also attention seeking posters here desperately trying to attain some level of relevance. Unfortunately their noise can tend to obscure the signal, if one allows it to. For that reason, I try to ignore the “Chicken Littles” and focus instead on those with real insight who offer relevant material rather than idiotic tweets and personal attacks.
Google's/Alphabet's release of its AI generative model Gemini is receiving accolades. This could be big for them. Interesting to see a huge +5% jump for them this morning in its stock price.
Microsoft with a small move in the opposite direction, most likely a reaction to the increased competition in this space for them.
Looks encouraging to me for Google/Alphabet, and I added to position today, and may add more.
Igy - it seems you terribly misjudged the markets. What are you going to tell your clients when the NASDAQ which you urged them to avoid is up 38% for the year and the Hussman Strategic fund which you have been incessantly touting is down 10% for the year. That is like almost 50% difference. How can you face your clients when you missed by this much?
Igy - it seems you terribly misjudged the markets. What are you going to tell your clients when the NASDAQ which you urged them to avoid is up 38% for the year and the Hussman Strategic fund which you have been incessantly touting is down 10% for the year. That is like almost 50% difference. How can you face your clients when you missed by this much?
Huh?
I advise all my clients like you that “with your current allocation, you’ll be OK if you die at 60 or live to 140.”
“BREAKING: The income needed to afford a typical home in the US hits a record 41.4% in 2023.
This is up from 21.1% in 2012 and 28.5% in 2020, according to Redfin. On a POST-TAX basis, homebuyers are spending nearly 60% of their income on home payments.
A homebuyer would need to make at least $110,000 per year to spend 30% or less of their income on home payments.
“BREAKING: The income needed to afford a typical home in the US hits a record 41.4% in 2023.
This is up from 21.1% in 2012 and 28.5% in 2020, according to Redfin. On a POST-TAX basis, homebuyers are spending nearly 60% of their income on home payments.
A homebuyer would need to make at least $110,000 per year to spend 30% or less of their income on home payments.
How is this sustainable?”
-Kobeissi Letter
Impact is greatest on first time homebuyers and much less so for those capable of paying cash and with equity in a current home they will be putting up for sale. This is due to high interest rates and low availability of housing stock, in part due to existing homeowners not wanting to sell into a tough market to find a new house at a good rate.
Did any of you music people get a Spotify year-end summary? With the place that listens to your music?
I got Asheville, NC because of my roots/Americana/singer-songwriter bent. The Band, John Prine, etc.
Which is nowhere near where I actually live. I am not with my music people.
Not me. Maybe it's in my junk email folder (?).
I don't use Spotify. Apple Music for me. Thinking of subscribing to You Tube Music as well, for that matter.
If I did, though, I bet they would peg me to LA or Seattle with my grunge and punk interest.
But I do like your taste in music. Esp. The Band.
“The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down” is clearly racist inspired, glorifying the Confederacy and the evil institution of slavery. Not surprisingly the song was playing in Walmart on my last visit, that and refusing to advertising on X, caused me to leave the store immediately without spending a dime. At some point you must stand up for what is right. :-)
I don't use Spotify. Apple Music for me. Thinking of subscribing to You Tube Music as well, for that matter.
If I did, though, I bet they would peg me to LA or Seattle with my grunge and punk interest.
But I do like your taste in music. Esp. The Band.
“The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down” is clearly racist inspired, glorifying the Confederacy and the evil institution of slavery. Not surprisingly the song was playing in Walmart on my last visit, that and refusing to advertising on X, caused me to leave the store immediately without spending a dime. At some point you must stand up for what is right. :-)
LOL. Good one, Igy. Love that song. And I will try not to like it any less the next time I listen to it.
“The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down” is clearly racist inspired, glorifying the Confederacy and the evil institution of slavery. Not surprisingly the song was playing in Walmart on my last visit, that and refusing to advertising on X, caused me to leave the store immediately without spending a dime. At some point you must stand up for what is right. :-)
LOL. Good one, Igy. Love that song. And I will try not to like it any less the next time I listen to it.
Good song. My wife’s grandfather was a famous American artist. His specialty was portraits of famous Americans. We inherited several of his works and purchased more when available. In the wake of the summer 2020 we were able to purchase a well preserved Robert E Lee at a good price. Value investing.
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