DGTD Official Prediction Check!
On 12/20/21, two years ago, Igy predicted stocks would be down 70-85% in December 2023.
Instead, the SP500 is exactly, precisely where it is today vs where it was on 12/20/21. Add the dividend we'll say there's been a 3% return.
Igy also predicted home prices falling 60-70%. Instead, they are up 12%, going by Case Shiller.
Government bond returns....eyeballing it, looks like down 8%, close to the 10-15% prediction. So that was a good one.
Junk down 3%, not 60-70%.
I'll have to call this an incorrect prediction from Igy, although he was right to be pessimistic in general and almost got his government bond prediction correct.
This is page 2519 if you all want to go back and take a look.
"Never could I imagine this level of insanity. I would say over the next two years stocks down 70-85%, residential real estate down 60-70%, and government bonds down 10-15%, junk more equity like, large number of defaults. Ten year returns stocks down 5%, residential real estate down 4%, and bonds up 1%."