As you can imagine, going the other direction. My short position up to a 9% portfolio weight, EMD up more than NASDAQ, so account modestly positive on the day.
Good going, Igy.
The short positions must be dragging it down, though (?). At least, I would have thought so. SOXX up a little, but it appears SQQQ down over three percent.
I have TECS and SOXS, though the really difference is larger position in EM Bond CEFs.
Here's one for you, Igy. Only this one never recovered, unlike most of those in the chart you linked to, and it never enjoyed much of a bubble either, for that matter:
Find the latest Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Looks like "no recession" is the answer to this. From April 2023.
Alf @MacroAlf History shows that stock markets bottom on average 11 months after (not before) a recession starts. If you think the S&P500 lows were hit last year, then you think: - We already had a mild recession in 2022 - We don't get a recession at all - ''This time is different''
Calling the end of inflation seems sort of easy right now...but until the last few months it was was still a brave call. Here's one of them. Although to be fair, core inflation has been sticky and stuck at 3-4%.
AndreasStenoLarsen @AndreasSteno Very dovish US inflation report! As we have said through Q2. No one will talk about inflation in 6 months! It is over.
4:34 PM · May 10, 2023 · 117.1K Views
Very dovish US inflation report!
As we have said through Q2. No one will talk about inflation in 6 months! It is over.
Calling the end of inflation seems sort of easy right now...but until the last few months it was was still a brave call. Here's one of them. Although to be fair, core inflation has been sticky and stuck at 3-4%.
AndreasStenoLarsen @AndreasSteno Very dovish US inflation report! As we have said through Q2. No one will talk about inflation in 6 months! It is over.
This was SOOOOO easy to see. As I have CORRECTLY stated several times before, the high inflation was due to the ending of the pandemic and the pent-up demand for goods and services and that as we moved further from the pandemic, inflation would drop preciptiously. This is EXACTLY what has happened...and I'm no soothsayer...any expert worth his/her salt said the same thing (and even there, it didn't take an expert to see this). No, Joe Biden nor his policies created the high inflation, and no, his policies (not even the Inflation Reduction Act) caused inflation to fall back to historical norms.
Of course the morons who blame Biden for the high inflation that we HAD won't now credit him for the lower inflation we HAVE.
Could we just marvel at microsoft for a minute here?
Gigantic megacap, one of the biggest companies ever. And its stock just keeps motoring. Right at all-time highs. All time.
Amazing stuff. And it doesn't seem to have much hype..it's just making a lot of money and not making mistakes.
Annualized returns:
1 year: +62%
3: 18%/year
5: 28%/year
10: 26%/year
MSFT keeps chugging along. I thought it would be gone many years ago.
Total return of S & P from 1990 to 2020 - 1,950%
For MSFT - 57,730%
This is astounding - $10,000 invested in MSFT - 1986 when it went public - worth $39 million today. Total return of 389,000% compared to measly return of 4,270% of S & P over same time
Looks like "no recession" is the answer to this. From April 2023.
Alf @MacroAlf History shows that stock markets bottom on average 11 months after (not before) a recession starts. If you think the S&P500 lows were hit last year, then you think: - We already had a mild recession in 2022 - We don't get a recession at all - ''This time is different''
As long as the unemployment rate remains so insanely low, the NBER is not likely to ever call a recession. But, as I've said before, I'm no fan of the NBER declaring recessions anyway as it does it way after the fact so it is hardly helpful. The much better and cleaner and immediate way to determine a recession is the traditional look at GDP. Two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth should be the defining definition. Easy to measure and easy to react to.
Looks like "no recession" is the answer to this. From April 2023.
Alf @MacroAlf History shows that stock markets bottom on average 11 months after (not before) a recession starts. If you think the S&P500 lows were hit last year, then you think: - We already had a mild recession in 2022 - We don't get a recession at all - ''This time is different''
As long as the unemployment rate remains so insanely low, the NBER is not likely to ever call a recession. But, as I've said before, I'm no fan of the NBER declaring recessions anyway as it does it way after the fact so it is hardly helpful. The much better and cleaner and immediate way to determine a recession is the traditional look at GDP. Two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth should be the defining definition. Easy to measure and easy to react to.
the problem with your method is that, in fact, real GDP is very hard to measure correctly.
using a broader definition like NBER's is better because it takes more into consideration than just one difficult-to-measure and error-prone number.
As long as the unemployment rate remains so insanely low, the NBER is not likely to ever call a recession. But, as I've said before, I'm no fan of the NBER declaring recessions anyway as it does it way after the fact so it is hardly helpful. The much better and cleaner and immediate way to determine a recession is the traditional look at GDP. Two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth should be the defining definition. Easy to measure and easy to react to.
the problem with your method is that, in fact, real GDP is very hard to measure correctly.
using a broader definition like NBER's is better because it takes more into consideration than just one difficult-to-measure and error-prone number.
and also on the use of unemployment...that's very tricky. Odds are that if unemployment rises just 0.5% from its low...a recession will arrive pretty soon.
So in this case, if we get to, say, 4.0% unemployment, we're likely to get a recession. Even though unemployment is still very low. When the economy is running quickly, like it is now, it's hard to keep finding growth and new jobs. A little recession is normal to clean out the cobwebs and misallocated capital.
But a recession isn't necessarily bad times...it could be a tiny slowdown from a high level of economic activity, for example.
As of 11/8/2023 (well, my results are as of 11/7/2023, and the indicies are from current moment 11/8/2023).
Flagpole: UP 11.88% YTD
Dow: UP 3.15% YTD
S&P 500: UP 14.09% YTD
NASDAQ: UP 30.11% YTD (um...DAMN!)
Flagpole - don't take this the wrong way but not sure you understand the markets too well. The Flagpole YTD of 11% - is that capital appreciation or also including dividends? Same with the markets. Only cap. Appreciation or also dividends. This might be 2 bad years for you. I have a ranch with bunkhouse you and your lovely wife can stay in. No charge!
As of 11/8/2023 (well, my results are as of 11/7/2023, and the indicies are from current moment 11/8/2023).
Flagpole: UP 11.88% YTD
Dow: UP 3.15% YTD
S&P 500: UP 14.09% YTD
NASDAQ: UP 30.11% YTD (um...DAMN!)
Flagpole - don't take this the wrong way but not sure you understand the markets too well. The Flagpole YTD of 11% - is that capital appreciation or also including dividends? Same with the markets. Only cap. Appreciation or also dividends. This might be 2 bad years for you. I have a ranch with bunkhouse you and your lovely wife can stay in. No charge!
Also, unfair to put your diversified portfolio up against the 30 conservative stocks making up the Dow. Apples and oranges.
“Analysts made the largest cuts to quarterly EPS estimates for $SPX companies during the first month of a quarter in October 2023 since April 2020. #earnings, #earningsinsight,
Given concerns in the market about a possible economic slowdown or recession, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the fourth quarter? The answer is yes.
As of 11/8/2023 (well, my results are as of 11/7/2023, and the indicies are from current moment 11/8/2023).
Flagpole: UP 11.88% YTD
Dow: UP 3.15% YTD
S&P 500: UP 14.09% YTD
NASDAQ: UP 30.11% YTD (um...DAMN!)
Flagpole - don't take this the wrong way but not sure you understand the markets too well. The Flagpole YTD of 11% - is that capital appreciation or also including dividends? Same with the markets. Only cap. Appreciation or also dividends. This might be 2 bad years for you. I have a ranch with bunkhouse you and your lovely wife can stay in. No charge!
1) Um...there is nothing about what I have provided there that I don't understand.
2) I'll leave the "including dividends" to myself just to bother you.
3) Might be a bad 2 years for me? Ha! What are you talking about? I'm not just barely above water, brother. I've won the financial battle. I have more money than I will ever need even if the market goes down every year from here until I die (and it won't). This is why you don't ever see me fretting about the direction of the market or crowing that I sold X and made this or that on a short-term sale. I don't care. I don't need to care. I've put myself in a position to not have to care due to consistent, unwavering HUGE investing since 1989.
4) Hard truth...I would rather stick a Tabasco-soaked finger in my eye than spend even one minute under the same room with you. I have no place in my life for Trumpers.
“Analysts made the largest cuts to quarterly EPS estimates for $SPX companies during the first month of a quarter in October 2023 since April 2020. #earnings, #earningsinsight, ”
Flagpole - don't take this the wrong way but not sure you understand the markets too well. The Flagpole YTD of 11% - is that capital appreciation or also including dividends? Same with the markets. Only cap. Appreciation or also dividends. This might be 2 bad years for you. I have a ranch with bunkhouse you and your lovely wife can stay in. No charge!
1) Um...there is nothing about what I have provided there that I don't understand.
2) I'll leave the "including dividends" to myself just to bother you.
3) Might be a bad 2 years for me? Ha! What are you talking about? I'm not just barely above water, brother. I've won the financial battle. I have more money than I will ever need even if the market goes down every year from here until I die (and it won't). This is why you don't ever see me fretting about the direction of the market or crowing that I sold X and made this or that on a short-term sale. I don't care. I don't need to care. I've put myself in a position to not have to care due to consistent, unwavering HUGE investing since 1989.
4) Hard truth...I would rather stick a Tabasco-soaked finger in my eye than spend even one minute under the same room with you. I have no place in my life for Trumpers.
Congratulations, FP.
Regarding your comment, Sally, about taking last years declines into the equation when considering this years gains, I did some checking on my own portfolio, and it just so happens that last years downturn exactly equals this years gains ytd thus far in percentage terms.
So, point being, while i don't need to be looking for a ranch bunkhouse, it is instructive to keep these things in perspective in that markets don't only move in only one direction.
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