OK, I see how he gets such high correlations. He's correlated log values. That's sneaky, because it implies very high correlations, when in fact when you revert to natural values from log values, the correlation dissipates.
Remember folks, when you take the logarithm (base 10, let's assume) of something, you are, in simplistic terms, converting from actual numbers to orders of magnitude. So his correlations relate orders of magnitude with a fairly strong link, which is a (very) low bar.
OK, but on his matrix he uses the same to evaluate other commonly used stock market valuation models. One can say nothing matters because it is all psychologically driven, if that gives you confidence. Examine results of statistical evaluation of S&P 500 run March 2009. What result would that give? Anyway, if one wished to borrow money from a bank to buy a business, valuation based on cash flow would be a bank requirement. I assume these stock market models attempt to do the same.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
One can say nothing matters because it is all psychologically driven, if that gives you confidence.
ell, that is more or less the personal thesis behind my use of the "idiot" nom-de-plume for several years. I DO happen to believe that very little "matters" in a purely causative sense, at least when it comes to explaining most movement in financial markets.
The only time causative links between market behavior and external forces can ever be done is in hindsight. Which again, tells us little or (next to) nothing conclusive about the future.
One can say nothing matters because it is all psychologically driven, if that gives you confidence.
ell, that is more or less the personal thesis behind my use of the "idiot" nom-de-plume for several years. I DO happen to believe that very little "matters" in a purely causative sense, at least when it comes to explaining most movement in financial markets.
The only time causative links between market behavior and external forces can ever be done is in hindsight. Which again, tells us little or (next to) nothing conclusive about the future.
So sez I, anyway...
I suppose on a micro level then, investing in WeWork was 50/50 proposition, even though the numbers never added up. I think the same logic could be applied to the larger domestic stock and bond market where the numbers don’t add up; borrowing large sums of money to prop up the illusion of growth. In either case, the consequences of poor behavior may be excused as a function of markets, unpredictable and largely a roll of the dice. Therefore, only an occasional prosecution of a Bankman-Fried gives the populace a belief that the odds are not tilted to the investor class. Clearly that is not true, and how this is reconciled in the future is anyone’s guess. Perhaps there will be no payback, which in my view would be unfortunate.
OK, I see how he gets such high correlations. He's correlated log values. That's sneaky, because it implies very high correlations, when in fact when you revert to natural values from log values, the correlation dissipates.
Remember folks, when you take the logarithm (base 10, let's assume) of something, you are, in simplistic terms, converting from actual numbers to orders of magnitude. So his correlations relate orders of magnitude with a fairly strong link, which is a (very) low bar.
OK, but on his matrix he uses the same to evaluate other commonly used stock market valuation models. One can say nothing matters because it is all psychologically driven, if that gives you confidence. Examine results of statistical evaluation of S&P 500 run March 2009. What result would that give? Anyway, if one wished to borrow money from a bank to buy a business, valuation based on cash flow would be a bank requirement. I assume these stock market models attempt to do the same.
Retárd alert 🚨. I love watching this never-was lose money.
Sure seems more like luck than science but these seasonal trends are interesting.
This one found the third year of a presidency is usually a good one for stocks and yes so far the SP500 is up 15% year to date.
Another one of these showed that the second half of October is seasonably terrible for investing but it rebounds late Oct/early Nov and yeah that happened this year. Have to wonder if multiple versions of AI investing software are taking these patterns into account and making them become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Which might suggest following along with them.
Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick Year three of the Presidential Cycle is usually strong, but things get even better under a new President. Here's an old one we shared a lot at the start of the year.
1:53 PM · Jul 14, 2023 · 13K Views
Year three of the Presidential Cycle is usually strong, but things get even better under a new President.
Sure seems more like luck than science but these seasonal trends are interesting.
This one found the third year of a presidency is usually a good one for stocks and yes so far the SP500 is up 15% year to date.
Another one of these showed that the second half of October is seasonably terrible for investing but it rebounds late Oct/early Nov and yeah that happened this year. Have to wonder if multiple versions of AI investing software are taking these patterns into account and making them become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Which might suggest following along with them.
Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick Year three of the Presidential Cycle is usually strong, but things get even better under a new President. Here's an old one we shared a lot at the start of the year.
Since 1950 November has been strongest month for stocks. S & P only declined once, 2021, in last 11 years. December also very good for the market. 3000 per Igy is looking less and less likely.
Sure seems more like luck than science but these seasonal trends are interesting.
This one found the third year of a presidency is usually a good one for stocks and yes so far the SP500 is up 15% year to date.
Another one of these showed that the second half of October is seasonably terrible for investing but it rebounds late Oct/early Nov and yeah that happened this year. Have to wonder if multiple versions of AI investing software are taking these patterns into account and making them become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Which might suggest following along with them.
Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick Year three of the Presidential Cycle is usually strong, but things get even better under a new President. Here's an old one we shared a lot at the start of the year.
You know what's better than following trends like that? Just invest. Invest 15% or more of your income from the moment you have a self-supporting job until you retire. That way, you don't have to care who the Super Bowl winner is or if some dumb@ss "expert" said to do something or if there was snow in September.
'Net interest costs have surpassed 14% of revenues, historically the inflection point for a shift from fiscal accommodation to fiscal austerity. Essentially, tension is building up over how the federal gov. will pay for all the things that it's doing.' bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
'Net interest costs have surpassed 14% of revenues, historically the inflection point for a shift from fiscal accommodation to fiscal austerity. Essentially, tension is building up over how the federal gov. will pay for all the things that it's doing.'
'Estimated annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month. That amount has doubled in the past 19 months, and is equivalent to 15.9% of the entire Federal budget for fiscal year 2022.' bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
'Estimated annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month. That amount has doubled in the past 19 months, and is equivalent to 15.9% of the entire Federal budget for fiscal year 2022.'
"Amzn and AAPL will lead the next decline in market. Since then one is up 70% and the up hugely. Maybe quit the predictions for a bit? Your track record sucks.
'Estimated annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month. That amount has doubled in the past 19 months, and is equivalent to 15.9% of the entire Federal budget for fiscal year 2022.'
"Amzn and AAPL will lead the next decline in market. Since then one is up 70% and the up hugely. Maybe quit the predictions for a bit? Your track record sucks.
My wife is a very savvy investor. She laughs when I mention Hussman. Maybe you should too, yes?
"Amzn and AAPL will lead the next decline in market. Since then one is up 70% and the up hugely. Maybe quit the predictions for a bit? Your track record sucks.
My wife is a very savvy investor. She laughs when I mention Hussman. Maybe you should too, yes?
Is your savvy investor wife buying AAPL and AMZN today?
Could we just marvel at microsoft for a minute here?
Gigantic megacap, one of the biggest companies ever. And its stock just keeps motoring. Right at all-time highs. All time.
Amazing stuff. And it doesn't seem to have much hype..it's just making a lot of money and not making mistakes.
Annualized returns:
1 year: +62%
3: 18%/year
5: 28%/year
10: 26%/year
It’s performance from 2000-2010 is why I have stayed away and stuck with QQQ.
Funny you should say that.
Likewise, I avoided it for years, and wisely so. But it was about 2017 or 2018 on this thread where I declared my change of heart (which was discouraged by a certain poster) and starting building a position in it. And I did so because it was moving aggressively into cloud computing strategies and because the momentum was changing.
Is your savvy investor wife buying AAPL and AMZN today?
Yeah, Sally, what is she buying? Throw us a bone, will ya?
FWIW, I've been buying Microsoft, so chew on that, Igy.
As you can imagine, going the other direction. My short position up to a 9% portfolio weight, EMD up more than NASDAQ, so account modestly positive on the day.
Yeah, Sally, what is she buying? Throw us a bone, will ya?
FWIW, I've been buying Microsoft, so chew on that, Igy.
As you can imagine, going the other direction. My short position up to a 9% portfolio weight, EMD up more than NASDAQ, so account modestly positive on the day.
Good going, Igy.
The short positions must be dragging it down, though (?). At least, I would have thought so. SOXX up a little, but it appears SQQQ down over three percent.
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