Down goes the Dow

Pretty good call from this guy. He took a look at a bunch of precursers to lower inflation and they all pointed down. And figured they were leading inflation down. At the time PCE inflation was 4.5%. Now it's 3.5%ish and falling. We're still talking about inflation, but it has fallen.

AndreasStenoLarsen
@AndreasSteno
10 reasons why no one will talk inflation in 6 months from now
A thread 1/n

2:13 PM · Apr 8, 2023
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How about choosing a Senator appointment because she is Black and a lesbian? Seems like that is great criteria, three preferred classes in one.

In Flagpole we have a White, straight male, yet ugly. It appears he overcame a lot of hurdles. Good for him, but he will never be a California Senator. Even if he buys a home in Burbank, next door to Adam Schiff.

well my bond long will lose money but at least I'll also lose money on my stocks.

you aren't wrong Igy

Even a quarter century ago it was easier to get a track coaching job if you were Black or a woman. Why was that? Well, track was three sports, cross country, indoor track, and outdoor track. So, if you had a preferred demographic that helped your staff scoring. I never railed against this, it was unfair, and understood.

In Flagpole we have a White, straight male, yet ugly. It appears he overcame a lot of hurdles. Good for him, but he will never be a California Senator. Even if he buys a home in Burbank, next door to Adam Schiff.

ok I closed out my TLT long in the pre-market at a loss of $19.45

told you it was teen-tiny.

interesting that short term bonds are down just 10 bps or so vs the 150 bp carnage at the long end. If you own primarily short term bonds today you probably won't be hurt badly.

And it looks like the curve inversion will finally end. 15 months of inversion probably coming to a close. I read somewhere that a de-inversion is often not good for stocks.

Somebody’all triggered. 😂

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hah someone on twitter is playing the same game as me - looking back at old predictions and checking them. Good one here. Bloomberg Economics said there was no less than a 100% chance of recession in the 10/22-10/23 zone. Not 90%. 100%.

NEVER say something is 100% likely. It's stupid to do. Leave yourself an out.

Anyway, here we are a year later ripping and roaring at 3-5% real GDP growth and massive job gains.

I said very little for months to his posts, even though at the point Flagpole decided to ride my ass, the market did nothing but go down.

Seems you like to dish it out, but can’t take.

336,000 job gains last month. That brings job gains under Biden to roughly 14 million. Trump's were a net negative. You may refer to the pandemic, but job gains have continued for years under Biden despite the Fed doing everything it can to slow the economy down. You may also say that presidents have no role in job gains and losses. However, you now have to go back all the way to Harding/Coolidge to find a Republican president with job gains even close to a Democratic president. Whether it's FDR vs. Hoover or Truman vs. Eisenhower vs. Kennedy and Johnson, Carter vs. Reagan or Nixon/Ford, Clinton vs. Bush I or Bush II, Obama vs. Trump or Biden vs. Trump, the picture is all the same, a landslide for jobs under Democrats.

Democrat shutdowns caused the 'job losses'. Biden caused the sky-high inflation and sky-high crime.

Interesting reaction by the market to the jobs numbers released this morning. First a sizable drop, as would be expected since a strong jobs report would suggest a need for the Fed to raise rates again. But then the reversal and market rises.

Why?

Only guess is that the strong jobs report allays fears of a recession, and the much sought after "soft-landing" seems more likely.

Additionally, the report showed that wage growth was moderating (slowing), and that will be met favorably by the Fed as they consider whether to raise rates further.

yeah it sounds to me that people are looking at the stock market and saying 'huh. Higher interest rates seem to have little impact on businesses profitability, hiring or stock prices. So why am I so worried about rates?' And the lack of wage growth means the fed won't need to raise rates more to fend off a wage-price spiral.

Plus, many investors have priced in a recession to stocks, and well a recession is not happening any time soon, so those folks have to buy back stocks.

Sort of a good place for stocks. Maybe immunized a bit against the fear of higher rates. A fast-growing economy is, after all, helpful to corporate profits.

Jealousy has never looked good on you, no matter how many handles, or times you try.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2023 (with 20 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 17 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 14 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.