Down goes the Dow

Not planning to call him out every time he's wrong. In this case, he called me out and asked for agip to bookmark the page, signifying HOW CERTAIN he was. So, I'm just keeping track to see if he'll be right or not. To be clear, I'm not calling him wrong yet. Something could happen to make him right (well, on the NUMBER...he's already wrong about the REASON it could be at or near 3,000 by the end of the year).

Regarding bandwidth, there will be three more updates from me by the end of the year. That's not that much time or effort on my part.

He has no credibility whatsoever.

The market has been described as resilient since the close of the Q2 2021 which saw the S&P 500 at 4,297.50. Friday’s close 27 months later was down slightly at 4,288.05. Index earnings have hovered at roughly the same level during that period, driven largely by the same handful of companies influencing the index. While the intervening 2 1/4 years saw big moves in other benchmarks, notably WTI advanced from $71.38 to $90.77, 10 Year Treasury from 1.49% to 4.579%, and a 30 Year Mortgage 2.98% to 7.31%. It will be interesting to see how long the perma-bulls penchant to pay more for a unit of earnings will continue. Long dated Treasuries have lost about 50% of their value during this period. I would suspect equities will follow, as fiscal and monetary policies that have supported markets in the past, encourage inflationary pressures, and complicate the Government’s ability to finance expenditures. It continues to be an extraordinary period in markets.

So, you can look in the rearview mirror and make declarations about what has happened. Um...ok. Stick with that. You can't predict sh!t.

Also, just as more evidence of your permabearness, you ALWAYS look for how something is down or bad. You DO know that the S&P 500 is UP 11.68% YTD AND also up from February when you declared it would drop to at or about 3,000 by the end of the year, right? Good grief man.

:-)

"Even if a wannabe retiree manages to achieve a savings rate 10 times the average, he would be socking away less than $24,000... [and] would take more than 7 additional years of working to save the $170,000 needed to cover the inflation Biden’s overseen..."

—E.J. Antoni, Phd.

Supid, ignorant comment.

And STUPID too!

Boy does this tone and view sound familiar! From a year ago. Stocks are up 21% from then, and bonds +1%. Meanwhile the global economy has been coughing and stuttering but chugging away.

Tuomas Malinen
@mtmalinen
I have a really bad 'deja vu', from 2008.
During that summer I often worried that so many people really did not know what was about to hit.
Same now. People live their lives without understanding that our (financial) world may shatter as early as next week.

11:52 AM · Oct 2, 2022

65k followers of that guy for some reason.

A buy signal a year ago for the contrarians! And it worked like a charm. People were really scared a year ago, which brought prices down to a low level, good for scooping up.

Ryan Detrick, CMT
@RyanDetrick
AAII bears above 60% for two consecutive weeks.
This poll has been around since 1987 and this is the first time it has ever happened.
Not during the crash of '87, tech bubble, financial crisis, or 100 year pandemic. Contrarian?

2:33 PM · Sep 30, 2022

This rule didn't work in 2023! September turned out to be a terrible month - Stocks down around 5%.

Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
FUNDSTRAT: “When markets up 15% ytd thru august + Aug is a down month, Sept is good 6 of 7 times. Only exception is 1975. Meaning we see +2% to +3% gains this month.”

6:07 PM · Sep 5, 2023
·
65K
Views

Today's the day, gents. Buckle thy tushies to your seats! 600k views!

Endless Capital w/ no pullbacks
@endless_frank
Ready to have your mind blown? 🧵
This 1987 crash analogue sets up for a crash on Monday October 2nd 2023.
If you notice the comparison charts 87 had a double test of the 100 day and then a bounce followed by a 3rd test Thursday October 8th 1987…cont..

Today happens to be a Thursday and we’re challenging the 100 day for a 3rd time.
If the analogue follows we trade in a 1-2% range the next 3-4 days and by mid week next week start to free fall.
By EOD Friday next week $SPX would be in the 4100-4200 range and Oct 2nd crash.

What’s happening on Oct 2nd? The beginning of a govt shutdown, payment of student loans restarting and also potentially UAW strikes expanding.
Everything comes to a head that Monday & that’s the same timeframe, based on the technical setup that took us into the 1987 crash. /end

11:55 AM · Sep 21, 2023
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611K
Views

The perma-bulls have been correct on one thing. The “Magnificent 7 Stocks have contributed 9.91% of the SPX's 10.57% gain in market cap. The “other 493 stocks” have contributed just 0.67% of the overall SPX gain this year.

'Researchers examined the median home prices last year for roughly 575 U.S. counties and found that home prices in 99% of those areas are beyond the reach of the average income earner, who makes $71,214 a year, according to ATTOM.'

10 Year Treasury highest since 2007 at 4.70%

strange days. Virtually every piece of economic data show inflation falling back to an acceptable range. Which normally would quiet down interest rates. But instead, rates keep marching higher. What is the reason for that abnormal behavior?

either the market is saying inflation is about to resurge

or

that there are just too many bonds coming out on the market and demand can't sop it them all up.

Or some combination of the two.

But if you believe inflation will stay in the 2-4% range for a few years (or lower) then it seems like this is a great time to back up the truck on bonds.

Certainly the market is saying inflation will be in the 2-3% range, judging by the TIPS spread. So all you have to do is agree with the market in order to be a bond bull.

fred.stlouisfed.org

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate

Link:fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE

So, gains are bad?

'Lawmakers have long gambled the federal budget — and the US economy — on an assumption that interest rates will never rise again. But it was absurd and ahistorical to believe that interest rates would never rise this much.'

—CNN, opinion, Brian Reidel