Down goes the Dow

Another terrible prediction. We got down to 3491 and no more. Gundlach is widely listened to and respected. Maybe he shouldn't be.

FXHedge
@Fxhedgers
GUNDLACH’S S&P TARGET 3000 -CNBC
4:05 PM · Sep 13, 2022

Perhaps not a bad prediction if we get a UAW Strike and Government shut down at the same time.

Good points. Now I'm not so sure either.....

VIX 12.82

remarkable. No fear in this market.

Another billionaire legend got it wrong.

A year ago Sternlicht said housing and the economy were breaking hard. From there the economy has roared and housing prices nationally have risen 3%. A very bad call.

Danielle DiMartino Booth
@DiMartinoBooth
From the mouth of the first big housing investor to dump houses:
Billionaire Sternlicht says economy ‘breaking hard,' sees major `housing crash'
@SeekingAlpha
Three months ago, we saw…
Sternlicht's Starwood Looks to Unload 3,000 Homes for $1 Billion

9:33 AM · Sep 15, 2022

Another tweetstorm forecasting doom, from six months ago. Instead, more jobs and a strong economy. This guy works for Wisdom Tree.

He was right we'd have slower inflation...but he thought it would come via economic pain. Instead, it's been painless.

Jeff Weniger
@JeffWeniger
1/9
The metrics point to job losses and rapidly declining inflation.
THREAD

6:28 PM · Mar 15, 2023
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35K
Views

My general plan is to use iBonds as my emergency fund...I'm building up to I dunno $30,000 in iBonds that, after the 1 and 5 year lockups, will be liquid and usable for emergencies. The iBonds should get a higher interest rate than any savings account over time, is safe from inflation shocks or bank runs, isn't taxed at the state level....

So I'm not looking at iBonds as a money-making investment...just as a way to store cash in case I need it, and have it keep up with inflation. In a no-think investment for decades.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2023 (with 3 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 3 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 2 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

I started trading options recently. I have an open call on my Assets page that lists a +$340 open P/L, but in a different section it lists only +$159. What’s up with that? Btw, I created a thread about this topic but it seems to have been deleted. If so, mods, please tell me why.

Likely intrinsic and time value. I could tell you more with an actual statement.

Thanks. Yeah, I thought Theta was the likely explanation. It’s .073 or so, and it expires near the end of October, but the math still doesn’t work out, I don’t think. Intrinsic value is 340 - 33(7.3) … 33 days from date of purchase till expiry = around 100. Like I said, it lists the P/L at $159.

^ That wasn’t me.

Wow. You’re nuts. I couldn’t reply with the same username bc of this board’s weird rules so I used another one. then you went and registered the original name I used? you’re sick. get a life

Pay attention. My name is not registered. You can’t use the name because I was the first to use it here. Stop trolling.

Dude, i happened to pick the same username as you. stop thinking the world revolves around you.

Great call from Bernstein here - a year ago they suggested a recession was already priced into tech so there might not be much more downside. They were right.

tech is up 28% over the past year.

And also easy to forget now, with tech having led the market so strongly, how badly tech got smashed in 2022. It's a volatile sector to invest in.

Carl Quintanilla
@carlquintanilla
BERNSTEIN: "The Recession is (Probably) Priced In. Internet stocks' "are already being priced for a macro downturn. .. The relative underperformance of Internet stocks this time around has been far worse than it was during the financial crisis.” [Schmulik]

An oofingly bad call here in April 2023 hinting that a new housing collapse was imminent. Instead, DR Horton shares rose around 23% to a new 52 week high soon after the tweet. You can't just read the news and invest on it.

DR Horton sales order backlog just fell by 44% YoY. 📉
2022 Q2: $13.3 Billion
2023 Q2: $7.4 Billion
That type of drop is comparable to what occurred from 2006 to 2007 in the beginning stages of the last Housing Downturn.

2:16 PM · Apr 20, 2023
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700.8K
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A year ago, a perfect call from DB on the future of the fed funds rate. It was probably shocking back then, and you would have guessed stocks would get hurt, but instead the SP500 is up around 16%.

(((The Daily Shot)))
@SoberLook
With the stubbornly sluggish pullback in inflation,
@DeutscheBank
now sees the Fed raising rates to 5%.

5:32 AM · Sep 16, 2022

Kobeissi letter:

“BREAKING: S&P data shows debt defaults by US companies surged 176% in the first 8 months of 2023.

Furthermore, defaults in August reached their highest monthly count since 2009.

Higher interest rates have been cited as the primary reason behind these defaults.
The pain of higher interest rates seems to be increasingly setting in.

Can the Fed really avoid a recession?”