I maintain that in times of crisis this century, the fed and the US government have done a solid job getting us through the crises. Sure, one could argue they are just kicking the can up the road, but in the long run we're all dead so might as well do what you can now.
Heh about your predictions - good stuff.
Oh, my view is things are on a historical continuum that we don’t control. Where I currently differ, is whether that has reached a point where the next stage is clearly not good.
In regards to predictions, early on in this thread I only spoke of relative value. The prediction thing started with “retired,” then Sally. Got to the point where it is meaningless, so really just post whatever comes to mind at the time. That said, I stand by my thought that a market low has not been reached. And I do believe there is a high likelyhood we get under 4,000 by year end. Is high 30% probability? Yes, maybe even better than 50%. Admittedly just a reasonable guess. I could be wrong. :-)
Think about all the things written about here and elsewhere that were wrong: TINA, transitory inflation, meme stocks, crypto, NFTs, CRE, even the wisdom of the lockdowns…
Let me say that I'm balls-to-the-wall in agreement with Sally on this one.
I have Flagpole on my feed block, so he will be posting to anyone but me. At some point enough is enough, and it just becomes weird behavior.
What a big baby. So, he's allowed to come on to this thread, spew his permabear nonsense, and then call me out and is SO CERTAIN OF HIS CALL IN FEBRUARY THAT HE ASKS AGIP TO BOOKMARK THE PAGE, and then block me when I keep an eye on his call for him? Note that I had NO IDEA in Feb. if he'd be right or not. I didn't have a feeling or inside knowledge or hope or anything. Was just keeping track to see if he was going to be right. He still could be.
Man, talk about taking your ball and going home. If you're going to make such a definitive declaration, ESPECIALLY IF YOU PRESENT YOURSELF AS AN EXPERT AND BELITTLE OTHERS WHO DON'T AGREE WITH YOU, then you should have the balls enough to see that through.
I have Flagpole on my feed block, so he will be posting to anyone but me. At some point enough is enough, and it just becomes weird behavior.
What a big baby. So, he's allowed to come on to this thread, spew his permabear nonsense, and then call me out and is SO CERTAIN OF HIS CALL IN FEBRUARY THAT HE ASKS AGIP TO BOOKMARK THE PAGE, and then block me when I keep an eye on his call for him? Note that I had NO IDEA in Feb. if he'd be right or not. I didn't have a feeling or inside knowledge or hope or anything. Was just keeping track to see if he was going to be right. He still could be.
Man, talk about taking your ball and going home. If you're going to make such a definitive declaration, ESPECIALLY IF YOU PRESENT YOURSELF AS AN EXPERT AND BELITTLE OTHERS WHO DON'T AGREE WITH YOU, then you should have the balls enough to see that through.
Relax, Flaggy. Igy just “pretend blocks” people. Be assured that he is still reading all of your posts.
Couldn’t do 10: Micron, Taiwan Semi, Huawei, Nvidia, Arm Holdings, Hynix, Samsung, Sony
You did well. You forgot Frito Lay (kidding), Broadcom, Qualcom - forget the rest.
Off the top of my head, I can add Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technologies (MRVL), and a chip software developer I've mentioned on here before: Synopsis (SNPS).
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Reason provided:
corrected stock ticker for Synopsis , Inc.
What a big baby. So, he's allowed to come on to this thread, spew his permabear nonsense, and then call me out and is SO CERTAIN OF HIS CALL IN FEBRUARY THAT HE ASKS AGIP TO BOOKMARK THE PAGE, and then block me when I keep an eye on his call for him? Note that I had NO IDEA in Feb. if he'd be right or not. I didn't have a feeling or inside knowledge or hope or anything. Was just keeping track to see if he was going to be right. He still could be.
Man, talk about taking your ball and going home. If you're going to make such a definitive declaration, ESPECIALLY IF YOU PRESENT YOURSELF AS AN EXPERT AND BELITTLE OTHERS WHO DON'T AGREE WITH YOU, then you should have the balls enough to see that through.
Relax, Flaggy. Igy just “pretend blocks” people. Be assured that he is still reading all of your posts.
I am ALWAYS relaxed. I will though call out lameness when I see it.
You did well. You forgot Frito Lay (kidding), Broadcom, Qualcom - forget the rest.
Off the top of my head, I can add Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Marvell Technologies (MRVL), and a chip software developer I've mentioned on here before: Synopsis (SNPS).
And there's also the Israeli based semiconductor company, Tower Semiconductor, that has done well. They have manufacturing facilities in the US as well as Israel. Sticker: TSEM
AMD was another obvious I forgot. I cut my teeth early on with Micron in town, they had two dpin-offs: Micron Electronics (MUEI) and Micron Custom Manufacturing, not publicly traded. Both spin-offs exist today in other forms a web hosting and chip recovery business (refurbishing damaged/recycled chips); forget names after multiple reiterations. MUEI became Interland (INLD) at one point.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
AMD was another obvious I forgot. I cut my teeth early on with Micron in town, they had two dpin-offs: Micron Electronics (MUEI) and Micron Custom Manufacturing, not publicly traded. Both spin-offs exist today in other forms a web hosting and chip recovery business (refurbishing damaged/recycled chips); forget names after multiple reiterations. MUEI became Interland (INLD) at one point.
Years ago i had tried to trade AMD, TSEM, INTL, and BRCM, maybe a couple of others, but never got too far with them and gave up.
I was able to get IPO shares in MRVL and did well with that for a while, but got out of the whole sector long ago.
If you were a Boise broker you traded MU back during the Tech Bubble. JR Simplot, the French fry king, was the money behind the growth. Spun off a whole host of businesses, which was also true with potatoes and real estate. One such private company was Aceco. Started making blades to cut fries to imbedded chip manufacturing tools for flat screen TVs. Company was acquired, one of my masters running buddies was bought out for early retirement. Tentacles of Simplot businesses still there, but presence less of an influence since the old man died.
I have Flagpole on my feed block, so he will be posting to anyone but me. At some point enough is enough, and it just becomes weird behavior.
What a big baby. So, he's allowed to come on to this thread, spew his permabear nonsense, and then call me out and is SO CERTAIN OF HIS CALL IN FEBRUARY THAT HE ASKS AGIP TO BOOKMARK THE PAGE, and then block me when I keep an eye on his call for him? Note that I had NO IDEA in Feb. if he'd be right or not. I didn't have a feeling or inside knowledge or hope or anything. Was just keeping track to see if he was going to be right. He still could be.
Man, talk about taking your ball and going home. If you're going to make such a definitive declaration, ESPECIALLY IF YOU PRESENT YOURSELF AS AN EXPERT AND BELITTLE OTHERS WHO DON'T AGREE WITH YOU, then you should have the balls enough to see that through.
Igy - I respect a lot of what you say and your expertise and often disagree with Flagpole, but he is right here. You make all of these declarations but when they don't come to fruition you never say you were wrong. Just more declarations from you are coming. Please just acknowledge when you are wrong. If you are a Permabear 100% of the time your predictions don't carry much weight. Hussman is a Permabear and Grantham too. No one but a fool would listen to them.
AMD was another obvious I forgot. I cut my teeth early on with Micron in town, they had two dpin-offs: Micron Electronics (MUEI) and Micron Custom Manufacturing, not publicly traded. Both spin-offs exist today in other forms a web hosting and chip recovery business (refurbishing damaged/recycled chips); forget names after multiple reiterations. MUEI became Interland (INLD) at one point.
Years ago i had tried to trade AMD, TSEM, INTL, and BRCM, maybe a couple of others, but never got too far with them and gave up.
I was able to get IPO shares in MRVL and did well with that for a while, but got out of the whole sector long ago.
What a big baby. So, he's allowed to come on to this thread, spew his permabear nonsense, and then call me out and is SO CERTAIN OF HIS CALL IN FEBRUARY THAT HE ASKS AGIP TO BOOKMARK THE PAGE, and then block me when I keep an eye on his call for him? Note that I had NO IDEA in Feb. if he'd be right or not. I didn't have a feeling or inside knowledge or hope or anything. Was just keeping track to see if he was going to be right. He still could be.
Man, talk about taking your ball and going home. If you're going to make such a definitive declaration, ESPECIALLY IF YOU PRESENT YOURSELF AS AN EXPERT AND BELITTLE OTHERS WHO DON'T AGREE WITH YOU, then you should have the balls enough to see that through.
Igy - I respect a lot of what you say and your expertise and often disagree with Flagpole, but he is right here. You make all of these declarations but when they don't come to fruition you never say you were wrong. Just more declarations from you are coming. Please just acknowledge when you are wrong. If you are a Permabear 100% of the time your predictions don't carry much weight. Hussman is a Permabear and Grantham too. No one but a fool would listen to them.
Igy does say when he is wrong. Didn’t he just do that today or yesterday in regard to the mini financial crisis of 2023?
Igy - I respect a lot of what you say and your expertise and often disagree with Flagpole, but he is right here. You make all of these declarations but when they don't come to fruition you never say you were wrong. Just more declarations from you are coming. Please just acknowledge when you are wrong. If you are a Permabear 100% of the time your predictions don't carry much weight. Hussman is a Permabear and Grantham too. No one but a fool would listen to them.
Igy does say when he is wrong. Didn’t he just do that today or yesterday in regard to the mini financial crisis of 2023?
Agip - he might have - I have my popcorn ready for 12/31/23 when we learn if it is Igy at 3,000 or Flagpole at 4,500. This is going to be great. Are we ready to rumble?!!
What a big baby. So, he's allowed to come on to this thread, spew his permabear nonsense, and then call me out and is SO CERTAIN OF HIS CALL IN FEBRUARY THAT HE ASKS AGIP TO BOOKMARK THE PAGE, and then block me when I keep an eye on his call for him? Note that I had NO IDEA in Feb. if he'd be right or not. I didn't have a feeling or inside knowledge or hope or anything. Was just keeping track to see if he was going to be right. He still could be.
Man, talk about taking your ball and going home. If you're going to make such a definitive declaration, ESPECIALLY IF YOU PRESENT YOURSELF AS AN EXPERT AND BELITTLE OTHERS WHO DON'T AGREE WITH YOU, then you should have the balls enough to see that through.
Igy - I respect a lot of what you say and your expertise and often disagree with Flagpole, but he is right here. You make all of these declarations but when they don't come to fruition you never say you were wrong. Just more declarations from you are coming. Please just acknowledge when you are wrong. If you are a Permabear 100% of the time your predictions don't carry much weight. Hussman is a Permabear and Grantham too. No one but a fool would listen to them.
Sally, how many declarations of being wrong in 2022 did you make? I do have one regret, not making you grovel on your hands and knees with a donation to the Lymphoma Foundation. If you read more carefully, I already stated near 3,000 will not happen. If we do get there, or even back under 4,000, I will be relentless in rubbing salt into your wounds.
Igy does say when he is wrong. Didn’t he just do that today or yesterday in regard to the mini financial crisis of 2023?
Agip - he might have - I have my popcorn ready for 12/31/23 when we learn if it is Igy at 3,000 or Flagpole at 4,500. This is going to be great. Are we ready to rumble?!!
I didn't make a call at all. Didn't make a numeric call. Didn't make a call of up or down. I'm just keeping an eye on what happens since Igy called me out so decisively. So, only IGY can be either right or wrong here. I am just a recorder of history.
1. Apple’s recent results were quite similar to IBM’s on a topline basis, with Apple seeing a third straight quarter of negative YoY revenue growth.
2. Bernstein finds that financial comparisons with IBM two decades ago are not unfounded: "Apple between 2015 and 2023 has had strikingly similar pre-tax income and EPS growth as IBM did between 1997 and 2012."
3. Apple has seen a dramatic re-rating, especially between 2019-2021, resulting in the stock going from a below market multiple at ~11z in 2015 to ~29x today.
4. Bernstein sees two takeaways we can learn from IBM twenty years ago for Apple today (a) "....revenue growth matters, and strong EPS growth absent revenue growth is unlikely to be afforded a rich multiple...(b) customer lock-in can prove ephemeral when platforms change. IBM's strength in mainframes and associated account control once seemed unassailable, but the world moved to industry standard servers and the cloud"
Charlie Kirk (implications the growth is fake-surprise):
“The Washington Post is reporting that the budget deficit had "unexpectedly" come in $1 TRILLION higher than expected!
No way. Anyone could have anticipated that a blank check for Ukraine, open borders, and repeated halts on student loan repayments would have caused a deficit explosion. Anyone except the Bidens, apparently.
And another thing: "There’s never been anything like it. ... A good and strong economy, with no new emergency spending — and yet a deficit like this."
Maybe the reality is that Biden's economic "boom" is as fake as the rest of his accomplishments?
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