Let me say that I'm balls-to-the-wall in agreement with Sally on this one.
Me too. Hopefully Igy can sack up and improve his verbiage.
Judging by the Johannes posting history your Igy erection is well beyond four hours, actually more than four years. A visit to a medical doctor is of no use, only a psychiatrist can recommend a proper course of treatment.
I've never seen such a wrong know-it-all as this Ghost of Igloi person. He spouts very specific details about how the market will do, when he can't possibly know that, and he's wrong and full of stinky poo. I hope you people don't listen to this person.
Apparently Augusts have recently often been poor months in pre-presidential election years. We were down 1.8% in August 2023, before the dividend. September looks rocky too, over the last 40 years(meaning 10 pre-election years) but then a rally in the fall.
Which would suggest starting to go all-in as Sept runs.
Seth Golden @SethCL Oppenheimer : Looking for a late August consolidation trough, to be right on schedule with last 10 Pre-Election years. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA $AAPL via @AriWald
but in it goes to the agip-matic calendar for Labor Day.
DGTD Prediction Resolution!
The facts of the case are a bit complex so I will simplify. The asker was a poster named 'Investor Noob.'
4/3/22 Noob asked for 401k advice. He uses the Vanguard Total US Stock Market Fund.
He said he had $285,000 on 4/3/22. Igy said it would be worth just $150,000 a year later if he held onto it. But that prediction came a cropper as it was worth $260,000 on 4/3/23. So Igy was correct on the direction - downwards - but was too pessimistic on the downward slope.
On 4/3/23 Igy doubled down and said the 401k would be down to $150,000 by 9/4/23.
Instead, since then, as of 9/5/23 the 401k has rebounded to $286,500. So Igy was wrong there too. It went up 10% instead of falling 42% over the summer.
We do have to recognize that the 401k is worth now...exactly what it was worth on 4/3/2022, and a good deal less after inflation. Shows you how long this market is going between new highs. 1.7 years so far. Igy has been correct to predict no new highs in the US stock market. Similar to the post-2000 peak that took a decade-ish to get your money back.
Me too. Hopefully Igy can sack up and improve his verbiage.
Judging by the Johannes posting history your Igy erection is well beyond four hours, actually more than four years. A visit to a medical doctor is of no use, only a psychiatrist can recommend a proper course of treatment.
I've never seen such a wrong know-it-all as this Ghost of Igloi person. He spouts very specific details about how the market will do, when he can't possibly know that, and he's wrong and full of stinky poo. I hope you people don't listen to this person.
As others have pointed out, we do listen to him. Then we do the opposite of what he recommends. That strategy has been a proven money maker.
but in it goes to the agip-matic calendar for Labor Day.
DGTD Prediction Resolution!
The facts of the case are a bit complex so I will simplify. The asker was a poster named 'Investor Noob.'
4/3/22 Noob asked for 401k advice. He uses the Vanguard Total US Stock Market Fund.
He said he had $285,000 on 4/3/22. Igy said it would be worth just $150,000 a year later if he held onto it. But that prediction came a cropper as it was worth $260,000 on 4/3/23. So Igy was correct on the direction - downwards - but was too pessimistic on the downward slope.
On 4/3/23 Igy doubled down and said the 401k would be down to $150,000 by 9/4/23.
Instead, since then, as of 9/5/23 the 401k has rebounded to $286,500. So Igy was wrong there too. It went up 10% instead of falling 42% over the summer.
We do have to recognize that the 401k is worth now...exactly what it was worth on 4/3/2022, and a good deal less after inflation. Shows you how long this market is going between new highs. 1.7 years so far. Igy has been correct to predict no new highs in the US stock market. Similar to the post-2000 peak that took a decade-ish to get your money back.
I have written in several posts how the Fed intervention in regional bank crisis, so far $1.5 Trillion in Government stimulus, and AI hype have altered the timeline to market lows. Likely, this just extends the pain.
Interestingly, Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates spoke on Bloomberg about NVDA being priced for more than perfection, and extending the bubble in mega caps. Like myself, Arnott is comfortable in the company of Hussman and Grantham in using valuation as a market guide for longer term performance. :-)
The Administration’s attempt to corner the chip market away from China hit a brick wall as Huawei reverse engineered their own smart phone chip. That is what happens when you throw money at problems that were created by past Administrations decades ago.
The Administration’s attempt to corner the chip market away from China hit a brick wall as Huawei reverse engineered their own smart phone chip. That is what happens when you throw money at problems that were created by past Administrations decades ago.
We don't get too much trivia here, but how many of the top 10 chipmakers in the world can you name? No cheating!
The Administration’s attempt to corner the chip market away from China hit a brick wall as Huawei reverse engineered their own smart phone chip. That is what happens when you throw money at problems that were created by past Administrations decades ago.
We don't get too much trivia here, but how many of the top 10 chipmakers in the world can you name? No cheating!
Couldn’t do 10: Micron, Taiwan Semi, Huawei, Nvidia, Arm Holdings, Hynix, Samsung, Sony
We don't get too much trivia here, but how many of the top 10 chipmakers in the world can you name? No cheating!
Couldn’t do 10: Micron, Taiwan Semi, Huawei, Nvidia, Arm Holdings, Hynix, Samsung, Sony
Then there is biggest by market cap, or production? Then there are the designers like a Qualcomm or a Marvel. Anyway, less in touch with the market than I once was.
The facts of the case are a bit complex so I will simplify. The asker was a poster named 'Investor Noob.'
4/3/22 Noob asked for 401k advice. He uses the Vanguard Total US Stock Market Fund.
He said he had $285,000 on 4/3/22. Igy said it would be worth just $150,000 a year later if he held onto it. But that prediction came a cropper as it was worth $260,000 on 4/3/23. So Igy was correct on the direction - downwards - but was too pessimistic on the downward slope.
On 4/3/23 Igy doubled down and said the 401k would be down to $150,000 by 9/4/23.
Instead, since then, as of 9/5/23 the 401k has rebounded to $286,500. So Igy was wrong there too. It went up 10% instead of falling 42% over the summer.
We do have to recognize that the 401k is worth now...exactly what it was worth on 4/3/2022, and a good deal less after inflation. Shows you how long this market is going between new highs. 1.7 years so far. Igy has been correct to predict no new highs in the US stock market. Similar to the post-2000 peak that took a decade-ish to get your money back.
I have written in several posts how the Fed intervention in regional bank crisis, so far $1.5 Trillion in Government stimulus, and AI hype have altered the timeline to market lows. Likely, this just extends the pain.
Interestingly, Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates spoke on Bloomberg about NVDA being priced for more than perfection, and extending the bubble in mega caps. Like myself, Arnott is comfortable in the company of Hussman and Grantham in using valuation as a market guide for longer term performance. :-)
fair enough, but I'd ask why you serially don't build into your predictions that fact that the US government is pretty good at acting to hold together the economy, like it did in the mini-financial crisis this year? The government isn't great at pulling back spending in quiet times, but when the merde is flying, the US government has done a good job holding up its end, something government is supposed to do and only the government can do. You endlessly discount that.
And also you are correct to talk about valuation's influence on long-term returns...but then you also make short term predictions based on valuations. Which doesn't work out too well.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
I have written in several posts how the Fed intervention in regional bank crisis, so far $1.5 Trillion in Government stimulus, and AI hype have altered the timeline to market lows. Likely, this just extends the pain.
Interestingly, Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates spoke on Bloomberg about NVDA being priced for more than perfection, and extending the bubble in mega caps. Like myself, Arnott is comfortable in the company of Hussman and Grantham in using valuation as a market guide for longer term performance. :-)
fair enough, but I'd ask why you serially don't build into your predictions that fact that the US government is pretty good at acting to hold together the economy, like it did in the mini-financial crisis this year? The government isn't great at pulling back spending in quiet times, but when the merde is flying, the US government has done a good job holding up its end, something government is supposed to do and only the government can do. You endlessly discount that.
And also you are correct to talk about valuation's influence on long-term returns...but then you also make short term predictions based on valuations. Which doesn't work out too well.
I disagree with the Government being positive influence, both Fed and Treasury. Of course Congress does little to address real problems. But we get the Government we deserve. American exceptionalism was long ago sold off to the defense contractors and Chinese imported goods that fill landfills. Strange how little we talk about the destructive nature of a continuous consumer growth model is to the environment.
One can see the social ills that the Government has encouraged. A market that has been manipulated to the advantage of the wealthy, investor class. While the average Joe faces poor paying jobs, unfulfilling, while inflation continues to be an issue. No wonder large cities become receptacles of the homeless and drug culture. Hard to see any of this ending well, economically or socially.
In regards to my “predictions,” largely a goading of posters. And, other than the “stocks for the long run” view, few others ever stick their neck out on any view.
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
fair enough, but I'd ask why you serially don't build into your predictions that fact that the US government is pretty good at acting to hold together the economy, like it did in the mini-financial crisis this year? The government isn't great at pulling back spending in quiet times, but when the merde is flying, the US government has done a good job holding up its end, something government is supposed to do and only the government can do. You endlessly discount that.
And also you are correct to talk about valuation's influence on long-term returns...but then you also make short term predictions based on valuations. Which doesn't work out too well.
I disagree with the Government being positive influence, both Fed and Treasury. Of course Congress does little to address real problems.But we get the Government we deserve. American exceptionalism was long ago sold off to the defense contractors and Chinese important goods that fill landfills. Strange how little we talk about the destructive nature of a continuous consumer growth model is to the environment.
In regards to my “predictions,” largely a goading of posters. And, other than the “stocks for the long run” view, few others ever stick their neck out on any view.
I maintain that in times of crisis this century, the fed and the US government have done a solid job getting us through the crises. Sure, one could argue they are just kicking the can up the road, but in the long run we're all dead so might as well do what you can now.
I disagree with the Government being positive influence, both Fed and Treasury. Of course Congress does little to address real problems.But we get the Government we deserve. American exceptionalism was long ago sold off to the defense contractors and Chinese important goods that fill landfills. Strange how little we talk about the destructive nature of a continuous consumer growth model is to the environment.
In regards to my “predictions,” largely a goading of posters. And, other than the “stocks for the long run” view, few others ever stick their neck out on any view.
I maintain that in times of crisis this century, the fed and the US government have done a solid job getting us through the crises. Sure, one could argue they are just kicking the can up the road, but in the long run we're all dead so might as well do what you can now.
Heh about your predictions - good stuff.
Oh, my view is things are on a historical continuum that we don’t control. Where I currently differ, is whether that has reached a point where the next stage is clearly not good.
In regards to predictions, early on in this thread I only spoke of relative value. The prediction thing started with “retired,” then Sally. Got to the point where it is meaningless, so really just post whatever comes to mind at the time. That said, I stand by my thought that a market low has not been reached. And I do believe there is a high likelyhood we get under 4,000 by year end. Is high 30% probability? Yes, maybe even better than 50%. Admittedly just a reasonable guess. I could be wrong. :-)
Couldn’t do 10: Micron, Taiwan Semi, Huawei, Nvidia, Arm Holdings, Hynix, Samsung, Sony
Then there is biggest by market cap, or production? Then there are the designers like a Qualcomm or a Marvel. Anyway, less in touch with the market than I once was.