Bill Parcells used to say your record is what it is. If the S & P finishes this year at 4,500 to 5,000, then it finished at 4,500 to 5,000. Doesn't matter how it got there. You predicted 3,000 with no qualifications. You predicted 3,000. But even predicting year-end 3,000 it kind of makes you relatively bullish compared to Jeremy Grantham's prediction of 2,000 at the very best.
You, Sally, are once again CORRECT!
The fact of the matter is that ANYONE who so confidently announces what will happen to the stock market in such a short period of time should be looked askance at. NO ONE can accurately predict how the markets will behave in such a short period of time. There are just too many factors involved CONSTANTLY...governments putting their thumb on the scale, unexpected world political or environmental events, the unexpected failure or triumph of a sector of the market, and on and on.
I would have let this lie, but I was called out (for really no reason, because I didn't say one way or the other how the markets would do in 2023)...so I'll just keep tabs on how it all goes. If the S&P 500 drops to 3,000 by the end of the year, I will give Igy kudos.
“Hard to see a year end 2023 S&P 500 much above 3,000, even without a recession.”
Bill Parcells used to say your record is what it is. If the S & P finishes this year at 4,500 to 5,000, then it finished at 4,500 to 5,000. Doesn't matter how it got there. You predicted 3,000 with no qualifications. You predicted 3,000. But even predicting year-end 3,000 it kind of makes you relatively bullish compared to Jeremy Grantham's prediction of 2,000 at the very best.
I am confident there will be a day of reckoning, a market rationalization. We have already seen that in the bond market. I wrote years ago about duration risk when investors here were scooping up long term bonds. Stocks are even a longer duration asset. I wish all of you well of course, but believe your equity centric financial foundation is filled with cracks and shifting sands.
We have had "days of reckoning" and the market always bounces back stronger before. Until I see that the market is not going to keep going up, then I shall expect that the market will keep going up. Until that happens I will keep my equities/mutual funds/ETFs that have been very very good to me for 35 years.
I am confident there will be a day of reckoning, a market rationalization. We have already seen that in the bond market. I wrote years ago about duration risk when investors here were scooping up long term bonds. Stocks are even a longer duration asset. I wish all of you well of course, but believe your equity centric financial foundation is filled with cracks and shifting sands.
We have had "days of reckoning" and the market always bounces back stronger before. Until I see that the market is not going to keep going up, then I shall expect that the market will keep going up. Until that happens I will keep my equities/mutual funds/ETFs that have been very very good to me for 35 years.
OK, I don’t think I ever said anything other than stocks are overvalued, which they remain so. You are big on long term time horizons like Flagpole. Factually, and supported by real data, the next decade MAY not be kind to domestic equity holders.
We have had "days of reckoning" and the market always bounces back stronger before. Until I see that the market is not going to keep going up, then I shall expect that the market will keep going up. Until that happens I will keep my equities/mutual funds/ETFs that have been very very good to me for 35 years.
OK, I don’t think I ever said anything other than stocks are overvalued, which they remain so. You are big on long term time horizons like Flagpole. Factually, and supported by real data, the next decade MAY not be kind to domestic equity holders.
That is not only permabear speak, but UBER permabear speak. Stocks are not undervalued or overvalued EVER, and if you think so, then you are just trying to add intelligence or study where none belongs. Yes, I know that experts say that stocks are undervalued or overvalued all the time, but that's BS. Stocks are worth on a specific day what someone will pay for them, and that price goes up or down every day. Your comment then that the next decade may not be kind (at least you said MAY) is also just permabear speak. You have ZERO basis for saying that. Monkeys MAY fly out of my butt. There is NOTHING that indicates that stocks will do anything over the next decade that they haven't done historically, and even if you point to something, that's so bogus as nothing could predict today how stocks will do over the next decade. I'm sorry you did not set yourself up to not be worried about such things.
What you SHOULD have done is this:
1) Began investing in diversified STOCK mutual funds as soon as you had a regular job. This should have been an unrelenting practice no matter what the stock market was doing. Pour money in. Pour money in. Pour money in. When the market goes up, great. When the market is down, stocks are just on sale.
2) Along with investing (at least 15% of your income), you should have done all you could to knock out any debt you had as quickly as possible.
3) Once the debt was gone (and even before if you could handle it if perhaps you still had a mortgage), you should have invested MORE than 15%...either in retirement accounts or also non-retirement accounts if necessary).
That's it. Then you wouldn't be worried about how the market does this year or in the next decade.
I know you are retired now, but for anyone who is still making an income and is worried about how the stock market will do in the next decade (or even just to have a very good safety net), one thing to do is to save up as much as 3 YEARS of expenses in cash that you could use to pay bills if the market tanked, giving you time to allow the market to recover...because it will. This money could go in a savings account (even a high yield savings account) or a checking account. The idea isn't to make money on that money...it's just a large emergency fund.
My AAPL is up over 25%. You really are a contrarian indicator.
All gone in the next 12 months. Agip can you bookmark it?
Not to pile on necessarily, but the anniversary of this prediction is coming up on October 25. Currently AAPL sits ~23% above where it was when Igy made his bold, yet foolish, prediction.
OK, I don’t think I ever said anything other than stocks are overvalued, which they remain so. You are big on long term time horizons like Flagpole. Factually, and supported by real data, the next decade MAY not be kind to domestic equity holders.
That is not only permabear speak, but UBER permabear speak. Stocks are not undervalued or overvalued EVER, and if you think so, then you are just trying to add intelligence or study where none belongs. Yes, I know that experts say that stocks are undervalued or overvalued all the time, but that's BS. Stocks are worth on a specific day what someone will pay for them, and that price goes up or down every day. Your comment then that the next decade may not be kind (at least you said MAY) is also just permabear speak. You have ZERO basis for saying that. Monkeys MAY fly out of my butt. There is NOTHING that indicates that stocks will do anything over the next decade that they haven't done historically, and even if you point to something, that's so bogus as nothing could predict today how stocks will do over the next decade. I'm sorry you did not set yourself up to not be worried about such things.
What you SHOULD have done is this:
1) Began investing in diversified STOCK mutual funds as soon as you had a regular job. This should have been an unrelenting practice no matter what the stock market was doing. Pour money in. Pour money in. Pour money in. When the market goes up, great. When the market is down, stocks are just on sale.
2) Along with investing (at least 15% of your income), you should have done all you could to knock out any debt you had as quickly as possible.
3) Once the debt was gone (and even before if you could handle it if perhaps you still had a mortgage), you should have invested MORE than 15%...either in retirement accounts or also non-retirement accounts if necessary).
That's it. Then you wouldn't be worried about how the market does this year or in the next decade.
I know you are retired now, but for anyone who is still making an income and is worried about how the stock market will do in the next decade (or even just to have a very good safety net), one thing to do is to save up as much as 3 YEARS of expenses in cash that you could use to pay bills if the market tanked, giving you time to allow the market to recover...because it will. This money could go in a savings account (even a high yield savings account) or a checking account. The idea isn't to make money on that money...it's just a large emergency fund.
I first invested in stocks in September 1982, so for almost 41 years. I spent 24 years managing other peoples’ money, over 500 households at Morgan Stanley, at my retirement three years ago my partner and I managed about $150 million. Your comments are good for someone age 35 with $35,000 in a 401k, but entirely inadequate for someone that is 60 and has accumulated a great deal of wealth, or depends on it for retirement. Your views are simple, and serve as a good advertisement for financial services industry.
I comment on many things in financial markets, long oil when no one was interested, or short long bond when it was a thing. Detested crypto, meme stocks, NFTs, and ARKK. Long SARK.
Over the next decade I would rather be long a 10 Year Treasury than long the S&P 500. I would rather be short the U.S. Dollar, than short oil.
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
In regards to Apple, it has not been a growth company in recent years. Cash flow to stock buybacks, and investors willing to pay up for a unit of earnings.
Current and historical p/e ratio for Apple (AAPL) from 2010 to 2023. The price to earnings ratio is calculated by taking the latest closing price and dividing it by the most recent earnings per share (EPS) number. The PE rati...
In regards to Apple, it has not been a growth company in recent years. Cash flow to stock buybacks, and investors willing to pay up for a unit of earnings.
In regards to Apple, it has not been a growth company in recent years. Cash flow to stock buybacks, and investors willing to pay up for a unit of earnings.
You’ve offered that same assessment before. And I’ve reminded you that there annual revenues continue to grow. Most investors would be happy with that.
FACTS: In the most recent quarterly filing, Apple for the three month and nine month period ending July 1, 2023, and in comparison to the 2022 filing for the same intervals, total net sales, net income, and earnings per share all declined. Nine month EPS ending June 25, 2022 $4.86 and July 1, 2023 $4.69. During that same year period Apple bought back just under 3% of the stock publicly traded.
FACTS: In the most recent quarterly filing, Apple for the three month and nine month period ending July 1, 2023, and in comparison to the 2022 filing for the same intervals, total net sales, net income, and earnings per share all declined. Nine month EPS ending June 25, 2022 $4.86 and July 1, 2023 $4.69. During that same year period Apple bought back just under 3% of the stock publicly traded.
If I wanted to be an ass hat, I would have posted this under the handle Fact Checker.
FACTS: In the most recent quarterly filing, Apple for the three month and nine month period ending July 1, 2023, and in comparison to the 2022 filing for the same intervals, total net sales, net income, and earnings per share all declined. Nine month EPS ending June 25, 2022 $4.86 and July 1, 2023 $4.69. During that same year period Apple bought back just under 3% of the stock publicly traded.
Apple revenue for last quarter did fall Year Over Year by 1%, but that isn't a lot, and likely represents lower consumer spending experiences market wide. iPhone sales were slightly lower, and while this is their leading revenue generating sector, it is closely followed by services, which experienced an 8% rise year over year. And perhaps most importantly, Apple is releasing their long awaited new iPhone at the end of the year, and this has been widely publicized, likely resulting in consumers holding off purchases until it's release.
All of which is to say that while year over year numbers did dip again (they have for several quarters), it is still a growth company with solid earnings and prospects.
FACTS: In the most recent quarterly filing, Apple for the three month and nine month period ending July 1, 2023, and in comparison to the 2022 filing for the same intervals, total net sales, net income, and earnings per share all declined. Nine month EPS ending June 25, 2022 $4.86 and July 1, 2023 $4.69. During that same year period Apple bought back just under 3% of the stock publicly traded.
Apple revenue for last quarter did fall Year Over Year by 1%, but that isn't a lot, and likely represents lower consumer spending experiences market wide. iPhone sales were slightly lower, and while this is their leading revenue generating sector, it is closely followed by services, which experienced an 8% rise year over year. And perhaps most importantly, Apple is releasing their long awaited new iPhone at the end of the year, and this has been widely publicized, likely resulting in consumers holding off purchases until it's release.
All of which is to say that while year over year numbers did dip again (they have for several quarters), it is still a growth company with solid earnings and prospects.
I suppose if you consider re-releasing modestly changed products, hyping the event, and buying back enormous amount of stocks as growth. Don’t forget the Republican tax cut of 2017 added about 5-10% revenue increase to most S&P 500 companies, which mostly went into stock buybacks and dividend payments. Tim Cook feels for the downtrodden and those that can’t do without the latest thing. I am writing on a six year old iPad that would be totally functional if Apple fully supported the device. Built in obsolescence is not environmentally friendly. Where is the outrage? Growth is not an upgraded camera, or a bigger screen, or a platinum case. CNBC on pins and needles awaiting the day, September 14th! Really? It is all so phony, like the fake markets. The Gilded Age of the 2020s.
Apple revenue for last quarter did fall Year Over Year by 1%, but that isn't a lot, and likely represents lower consumer spending experiences market wide. iPhone sales were slightly lower, and while this is their leading revenue generating sector, it is closely followed by services, which experienced an 8% rise year over year. And perhaps most importantly, Apple is releasing their long awaited new iPhone at the end of the year, and this has been widely publicized, likely resulting in consumers holding off purchases until it's release.
All of which is to say that while year over year numbers did dip again (they have for several quarters), it is still a growth company with solid earnings and prospects.
I suppose if you consider re-releasing modestly changed products, hyping the event, and buying back enormous amount of stocks as growth. Don’t forget the Republican tax cut of 2017 added about 5-10% revenue increase to most S&P 500 companies, which mostly went into stock buybacks and dividend payments. Tim Cook feels for the downtrodden and those that can’t do without the latest thing. I am writing on a six year old iPad that would be totally functional if Apple fully supported the device. Built in obsolescence is not environmentally friendly. Where is the outrage? Growth is not an upgraded camera, or a bigger screen, or a platinum case. CNBC on pins and needles awaiting the day, September 14th! Really? It is all so phony, like the fake markets. The Gilded Age of the 2020s.
You are not in touch with the market for such products and that's about as succinctly as I can say it. People don't just piss away a grand on crap they don't want. That's the cost of new phones.
Here's the scoop- it doesn't matter one bit (well, maybe one bit) what you settle for as personal preference. The things sell like nothing else. Wrap your head around that. And it doesn't matter if that is a good consumer decision or not - they sell.
Look, you can hate the way things are, but that doesn't change the fact that they are that way. The market is willing to pay for it and that's all an investor needs to know. And do understand that I have read in tech articles that the new iPhone is much anticipated and is believed to be suppressing current sales in anticipation of its release.
Apple revenue for last quarter did fall Year Over Year by 1%, but that isn't a lot, and likely represents lower consumer spending experiences market wide. iPhone sales were slightly lower, and while this is their leading revenue generating sector, it is closely followed by services, which experienced an 8% rise year over year. And perhaps most importantly, Apple is releasing their long awaited new iPhone at the end of the year, and this has been widely publicized, likely resulting in consumers holding off purchases until it's release.
All of which is to say that while year over year numbers did dip again (they have for several quarters), it is still a growth company with solid earnings and prospects.
I suppose if you consider re-releasing modestly changed products, hyping the event, and buying back enormous amount of stocks as growth. Don’t forget the Republican tax cut of 2017 added about 5-10% revenue increase to most S&P 500 companies, which mostly went into stock buybacks and dividend payments. Tim Cook feels for the downtrodden and those that can’t do without the latest thing. I am writing on a six year old iPad that would be totally functional if Apple fully supported the device. Built in obsolescence is not environmentally friendly. Where is the outrage? Growth is not an upgraded camera, or a bigger screen, or a platinum case. CNBC on pins and needles awaiting the day, September 14th! Really? It is all so phony, like the fake markets. The Gilded Age of the 2020s.
Maybe in around 2006 I bought the first iphone. The battery lasted forever. Worked so great. Like the original walkman which i got when they first came out. I have not been too impressed since. Just a slightly improved camera and some lesser improvements. I lived in a very hot climate and a few years ago I would go through like 2 iphones every few weeks because my sweat would cause it to not work when I would run. I wrapped it in a baggie and wrapped that in a towel and still it would go out very quickly. Sometimes it would go out before I finished my lap (3 miles). So now I have a cheap Motorla which has worked pretty well since I bought it. The people who get all excited about the new iphone - Why? Nothing has really changed - a slightly better camera and not much else.
I suppose if you consider re-releasing modestly changed products, hyping the event, and buying back enormous amount of stocks as growth. Don’t forget the Republican tax cut of 2017 added about 5-10% revenue increase to most S&P 500 companies, which mostly went into stock buybacks and dividend payments. Tim Cook feels for the downtrodden and those that can’t do without the latest thing. I am writing on a six year old iPad that would be totally functional if Apple fully supported the device. Built in obsolescence is not environmentally friendly. Where is the outrage? Growth is not an upgraded camera, or a bigger screen, or a platinum case. CNBC on pins and needles awaiting the day, September 14th! Really? It is all so phony, like the fake markets. The Gilded Age of the 2020s.
Maybe in around 2006 I bought the first iphone. The battery lasted forever. Worked so great. Like the original walkman which i got when they first came out. I have not been too impressed since. Just a slightly improved camera and some lesser improvements. I lived in a very hot climate and a few years ago I would go through like 2 iphones every few weeks because my sweat would cause it to not work when I would run. I wrapped it in a baggie and wrapped that in a towel and still it would go out very quickly. Sometimes it would go out before I finished my lap (3 miles). So now I have a cheap Motorla which has worked pretty well since I bought it. The people who get all excited about the new iphone - Why? Nothing has really changed - a slightly better camera and not much else.
I like it because it works and does what I need it to, and the big thing: it is integrated very nicely into a suite of apps and services that seamlessly allow me to switch between programs and devices almost effortlessly. The Airpods (Apple earbuds) work flawlessly with the iPhone, for example. I could drill down to how well they work together and how much time this saves me, in addition to affording nice capabilities, but you can look it up. It's all there, like all there services and programs and devices.
Look at 6 up days in a row - June 24, 2023 - July 2nd, 2023.
But more importantly, who cares?! The stock has killer ROI. Go ahead, keep grasping at straws, looking for one puny metric to somehow claim it isn't king of the hill. But it is, people buy their products and services, and it rules the markets. Deny it to your own detriment, as I'm sure you will. Fine, but don't expect us to believe you.
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