I made a lot of money the last few days.
I made a lot of money the last few days.
LOLOLOLOL wrote:
Ghost of lgloi wrote:agip,
No worries. My gastrointestinal functions are under control.
This bounce was not unexpected. But the near long term outlook is still precarious. Buyer beware.
Igy
It's WAY cool how nothing is unexpected to you! Must be awesome to be you!
Sounds like you doubt him. Which is odd, considering reading his posts it is quite clear that he was considering that possibility when he said he thinks cooler heads will prevail & the panic selling is over for now.
You guys sound like a bunch of hobby traders. I'd bet you've never broken 3,000K
US now down 11% in 5 trading sessions.
When the market opened after 911 after being closed a week it fell just 7%. Although that was in the middle of a bear market so it had already fallen a lot.
But jayzus - is a china slowdown worse than 911?
Also, we're down 13% from 52 weeks highs. Pretty standard stuff if it ends here, although this was very quick.
It's not just "a china slowdown", and the totality is infinitely "worse" than 9/11.
Yes this was quick, quicker than I had expected--which makes it difficult for me to interpret.
The best thing is to stick to what I believed when I got out at the end of 2014, because nothing essentially different has happened since then in the real economy, in economic policy, in monetary policy, in fiscal policy. Things have just played out according to the conditions in which they were set in motion years ago, and all the intervening events have been only noise.
I must admit, it's tough to filter out the noise, I find it somewhat entertaining.
These "levels" are better than prior "levels", which IMO were absurdly inflated...BUT these "levels" need to be tested with regard to the economics that result...the cost of money, capital investment, revenues, declared dividends, etc...before "value" can be assessed in any meaningful way.
But the thing is that something fake, like the markets, can not only fall very quickly, they can presumably also rise very quickly, although I doubt that they can rise as quickly as they fall.
We're around 15.7k now, and looking at ONLY price, some things look like bargains at the moment. Because I think that people are nervous, I think that markets will actually settle at a lower level for a while, rather than bouncing up and down repeatedly.
I am still watching...
I am firmly grounded in reality. I don't "trade", fantasy or otherwise.
I know guys who do. Some of them have made gobs, some of them have lost gobs, all of them have ulcers, some retired at 40 expatriated, others are living with their parents (literally). Not for me.
And as I have stated many, many times before, I have only been "out" very few times, and it has worked out for me every time. It will also work out for me this time. I don't "buy on the dips and sell on the bounces", unless you are talking a long time frame.
The only thing I have going for me is a very good b.s. detector. If you read back in the thread, you will see that the reason I got out when I did this time was mostly because of the insane gains of 2014 (unjustifiable economically), which I chalked up to fake effects--mostly cheap money, and the need for pension funds, etc. to look like they were doing well.
I got out after a more than 30% gain in 2014. Like I said, ridiculous.
And here I sit, in reality, not fantasy. I have also said that I want to be in somehow, because it is "easy". I am now looking to see if there is a way to construct a reasonable dividend portfolio, while essentially forgetting about future share price. Yes I know the inherent problems with such a portfolio, which is why I haven't yet made such a move, and why I am unlikely to. To the extent that I engage in fantasy, that is it, that there is some perfect "buy-and-set" dividend portfolio out there that will perform well for the next 40 years.
My bottom line is that I know less about the markets than I do about other things, meaning that I can manage my money better outside the markets, when the markets are not doing great. Everything requires work, and the tradeoff for me is control and responsiveness out of the markets, versus maybe more free time while in the markets.
Ghost of lgloi wrote:
my BS detector works overtime whenever you post.
Igy
+1
I know that's not you, ghost.
has the DJI dropper 10% in the last week?
From Bloomberg: "Losses in equities are confounding some investors who say not enough has changed in the global economy since May to justify the velocity of the plunge."
LMAO, but enough changed in the global economy in the single year 2013 to justify the velocity of that rise, right? Or the subsequent rise from Jan 2014 until March 2015?
Maserati wrote:
It's not just "a china slowdown", and the totality is infinitely "worse" than 9/11.
Yes this was quick, quicker than I had expected--which makes it difficult for me to interpret.
The best thing is to stick to what I believed when I got out at the end of 2014, because nothing essentially different has happened since then in the real economy, in economic policy, in monetary policy, in fiscal policy. Things have just played out according to the conditions in which they were set in motion years ago, and all the intervening events have been only noise.
I must admit, it's tough to filter out the noise, I find it somewhat entertaining.
These "levels" are better than prior "levels", which IMO were absurdly inflated...BUT these "levels" need to be tested with regard to the economics that result...the cost of money, capital investment, revenues, declared dividends, etc...before "value" can be assessed in any meaningful way.
But the thing is that something fake, like the markets, can not only fall very quickly, they can presumably also rise very quickly, although I doubt that they can rise as quickly as they fall.
We're around 15.7k now, and looking at ONLY price, some things look like bargains at the moment. Because I think that people are nervous, I think that markets will actually settle at a lower level for a while, rather than bouncing up and down repeatedly.
I am still watching...
Sorry, not the end of 2014, I got out at the end of 2013/beginning of 2014, with 2013 having been the big year. I wrote the wrong dates.
Why so frustrated pal? wrote:
LOLOLOLOL wrote:It's WAY cool how nothing is unexpected to you! Must be awesome to be you!
Sounds like you doubt him. Which is odd, considering reading his posts it is quite clear that he was considering that possibility when he said he thinks cooler heads will prevail & the panic selling is over for now.
You may have missed it but there have been multiple posts coming from GOI on this thread.
LOLOLOLOL wrote:
Why so frustrated pal? wrote:Sounds like you doubt him. Which is odd, considering reading his posts it is quite clear that he was considering that possibility when he said he thinks cooler heads will prevail & the panic selling is over for now.
You may have missed it but there have been multiple posts coming from GOI on this thread.
I believe the real Igy is off fishing in the wilds someplace.
Ghost of lgloi wrote:
Maserati wrote:I know that's not you, ghost.
Maserati,
You are entitled to believe whatever you want. It's a free world and you obviously have a vivid imagination.
I notice that you have taken to writing posts in reply to yourself. And to think some have accused me of enjoying the sound of my own voice.
Have a great night.
Igy
You are both full of shit and yourselves. You deserve each other.
Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
Ghost of lgloi wrote:Maserati,
You are entitled to believe whatever you want. It's a free world and you obviously have a vivid imagination.
I notice that you have taken to writing posts in reply to yourself. And to think some have accused me of enjoying the sound of my own voice.
Have a great night.
Igy
You are both full of shit and yourselves. You deserve each other.
Ouch! Now that was not very nice.
Tuesday was overall a pretty good day. No Monday gains, but much higher than average. God, I love big swings.
[quote]day trading frenzy wrote:
Tuesday was overall a pretty good day.
How's that?
All major indices down at least 1%.
Unfortunate that the troll is so active these days.
Chucker, I defer to your greater understanding of the VIX. From where I stand, though it's always something...from what you said, now structural or functional difficulties with the VIX.
Whatever. Its apparent susceptibility to inaccurate perturbation, requiring conscious manipulation or interference, is enough to indicate to me that it can therefore be used, manipulated, and interfered with to suit particular purposes, not necessarily related to smooth and transparent functioning of the markets.
Anybody got any thoughts on dividend stocks or funds?
Maserati wrote:
Unfortunate that the troll is so active these days.
Chucker, I defer to your greater understanding of the VIX. From where I stand, though it's always something...from what you said, now structural or functional difficulties with the VIX.
Whatever. Its apparent susceptibility to inaccurate perturbation, requiring conscious manipulation or interference, is enough to indicate to me that it can therefore be used, manipulated, and interfered with to suit particular purposes, not necessarily related to smooth and transparent functioning of the markets.
Anybody got any thoughts on dividend stocks or funds?
Look at Chinese stocks such as
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CEO&ql=1(7.4%)
How in the Hull wrote:
Tuesday was overall a pretty good day.
How's that?
All major indices down at least 1%.
Hi, K5!