If the Dow finishes today higher that would be the 14th consecutive day of gains, and the longest run since 1897. If it finishes today higher and tomorrow higher, that would be the index's longest winning streak, at 15 consecutive days, ever.
I am really looking forward to the day when we can make money in bonds. Will be amazing. Getting a 5% coupon and being allowed to keep it and not have it drained by capital losses.
Bond funds down 90 bps today. 2022-level carnage in bondlandia.
I am really looking forward to the day when we can make money in bonds. Will be amazing. Getting a 5% coupon and being allowed to keep it and not have it drained by capital losses.
Bond funds down 90 bps today. 2022-level carnage in bondlandia.
As an alternative to 5% coupon in bonds would be one of the High Yield Interest Bearing accounts offered by a bank now. There's a few of these out there as I've found. Any reason that wouldn't suit the same purpose?
I know you call them something different stateside, but GICs (guaranteed investment certificates) can be had in the GWN at 5.5% from my bank (and better from small shops) for 1 year and nearly 5.3% for 3 year. Also, high interest savings account ETFs or mutual funds are paying good money; the big banks are a bit chintzier than, say, Horizons CASH, which is I think yielding 5.4%, but I put some money into an HISA mutual fund offering from one of the "big six" banks the past few days at 4.55%. No fees, and can be bought and sold, with something like 1-2 days lag. The interest rates un US fund accounts is slightly better. That's close to the weighted average I'm earning on cash I've moved into GICs over the past 8-10 months, but has no set term and can be withdrawn at no cost very quickly. The yield is tied to the BoC rate, so "should" stay there or maybe 0.25 higher over the next 6-12 months, making it a pretty attractive form of cash.
I am really looking forward to the day when we can make money in bonds. Will be amazing. Getting a 5% coupon and being allowed to keep it and not have it drained by capital losses.
Bond funds down 90 bps today. 2022-level carnage in bondlandia.
As an alternative to 5% coupon in bonds would be one of the High Yield Interest Bearing accounts offered by a bank now. There's a few of these out there as I've found. Any reason that wouldn't suit the same purpose?
yes, savings accounts are an option. But there's always a gimme and a gotcha.
Say interest rates go down. Which is what the market has been saying they will do, and that's my bet.
If you put money into a savings account, the interest you get will also go down, and you will not have locked in these higher rates.
On the other hand, if you buy bonds or bond funds now, if interest rates fall in the future, you will get a sizable capital gain to make up for the lower interest your bonds pay. No such capital gain exists in savings accountlandia.
(of course the opposite is also true - if rates rise, if you own bonds you will get a sizable capital loss. That doesn't happen with savings account.
Since my bet is that interest rates will fall (wrong so far!) I think bonds are a better option right now.
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Looks like the guy runs a buy side fund of some sort.
335k views, so not nothing.
Back in April 2023 he looked at the GDP Nowcast and saw growth. he looked at the PMI and saw growth. So he said 'there will be growth through the end of 2023 and the Fed will hike rates again.'
And voila that is what happened.
The fun is to look at the responders who just did not believe there was accelerating growth in the US. They mostly said one form of 'take off your rose-colored glasses man we're doomed.'
But we are having a growth spurt and the Fed is indeed still hiking.
I don’t want to add to the noise and digital ink spilled over CPI this morning.
But I do want to redirect your attention to something else a lot of folks have missed (based on my TL)…
The Dow Jones is only about 1,100 off its all time high. I think we will easily get that by year-end. It was just 14 years ago (2009) when the S & P was around $600. Who would have thought back then that it would be around $4,600 today? I could see it finishing the year maybe breaking the $5,000 barrier.
The Dow Jones is only about 1,100 off its all time high. I think we will easily get that by year-end. It was just 14 years ago (2009) when the S & P was around $600. Who would have thought back then that it would be around $4,600 today? I could see it finishing the year maybe breaking the $5,000 barrier.
And someone is of like mind regarding prospects for the S&P 500:
headline of Blomberg article of July 13th: "S&P 500 on Track to Hit Record High Before Year-End, Goldman's Flood Says"
This is a fascinating question. This post-pandemic disinflation is breaking all the rules...I hope the Fed does not think it just another 70s inflation. The economy is healing. Inflation is crashing. We don't need a recession this time for the last bit.
Jeff Stein @JStein_WaPo I am not an economist but it does seem worth asking the question: If we can get from 9% to 3% inflation w/ no big spike in unemployment, how important is it really to get that last 1 percentage point to 2% if you believe doing so requires millions losing their jobs?
Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2023 (with 51% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Cause the asset holders again got bailed out by intervention (March), stocks are soaring as a result of injected liquidity and the lower income groups are stuck with all the price increases & pain of higher rates with housing affordability in the toilet all of which hardly impact… https://t.co/yYvRqYUW8cpic.twitter.com/8kNe5b4tJ5
it's true that macro measures of liquidity show increased liquidity.
Why an investor would want to bet against that helping stocks is a good question though.
Here's one good measure of liquidity, and it is suggesting loosening conditions despite a recent banking crisis, high rates and a shrinking Fed balance sheet. Remarkable.
it's true that macro measures of liquidity show increased liquidity.
Why an investor would want to bet against that helping stocks is a good question though.
Here's one good measure of liquidity, and it is suggesting loosening conditions despite a recent banking crisis, high rates and a shrinking Fed balance sheet. Remarkable.
