The people who bought 2 years ago picked a bad time to get in. You should be investing for the long haul.
Right, they should have bought in ten years ago. But for those who didn’t….
The past performance of any instrument or portfolio is only important in the past. It doesn’t matter today or in the future in any practical way. It can be important in shaping investors’ beliefs about future performance, but not usually in a helpful way, at least in my observation.
Let me put this a different way… Do you, Sally, think we will see another 3000% gain (triple ten-bagger) over the next decade? Is that the lesson we should draw from your examination of these data?
If you believe that, I will offer you long odds that it won’t happen and we can compare notes in 2033…
Let me put this a different way… Do you, Sally, think we will see another 3000% gain (triple ten-bagger) over the next decade? Is that the lesson we should draw from your examination of these data?
If you believe that, I will offer you long odds that it won’t happen and we can compare notes in 2033…
I think that your observations simply point to the need to keep things in perspective.
While the highfliers have delivered enormous returns, they are relatively rare. So you might need only one such performer out of 20 failed attempts to still yield an overall profit.
And let's face it - the ability to grab any significant holding in a Tesla company when it was still in it's infancy just doesn't really happen. We just don't have that kind of insight. But to grab it when it was still young, but trading for a period of a few years, might be more realistic. That is what is going on now with some AI companies, a few years ago with solar panel companies, pot companies, electric vehicle companies, etc.
And I'm not just talking out of my a$$ either. I know this guy that built a position in Apple around 2001 or so and rode it up for a 3,800% appreciation. Among others.
Let me put this a different way… Do you, Sally, think we will see another 3000% gain (triple ten-bagger) over the next decade? Is that the lesson we should draw from your examination of these data?
If you believe that, I will offer you long odds that it won’t happen and we can compare notes in 2033…
I remember Dell being up 2,000% in three years in the 90s. For the "Magnificent 7" I highly doubt we will see another decade like that for AAPL. When I presented the data earlier, by no means was I suggesting we can expect that in the future. The guy I was responding to cherry-picked those 2 years because 1 of those years was a rotten one for those stocks. It was not an accurate depiction of how those stocks have performed. Anyone who thinks we can predict future performance by past performance should not be investing in the market.
That attached chart shows how the NASDAQ 100 has performed since 1986. 31 years up, 6 years down (only 3 years if you take out the dot-com bubble). I would never say that the NASDAQ 100 will have future performance like the last 37 years, but I will say I am going to be riding that horse until I determine that I should not be riding it any longer. The last 100-plus years the Dow has returned about 11 or 12% (with dividends reinvested) and until it stops having that type of return for an extended amount of time I will be happily investing in the market.
Lastly, I will say my portfolio mainly consists of mutual funds, actively managed and index, but I quit with actively managed 20 years ago when I discovered index funds win out most of the time. Diversification is key.
The best way to look at highfliers is that historically they power the indices. Anyone who owns the SP500 has benefitted mightily from the runup of the highfliers.
But the odds of picking an individual stock that you hold onto for 20 years and make thousands of percent on....very slim odds on accomplishing that.
The best way to look at highfliers is that historically they power the indices. Anyone who owns the SP500 has benefitted mightily from the runup of the highfliers.
But the odds of picking an individual stock that you hold onto for 20 years and make thousands of percent on....very slim odds on accomplishing that.
If only I had bought Monster Beverage Co. 30 years ago. It is up 213,000% in the last 30 years. Amazon in second with $168,000.
The best way to look at highfliers is that historically they power the indices. Anyone who owns the SP500 has benefitted mightily from the runup of the highfliers.
But the odds of picking an individual stock that you hold onto for 20 years and make thousands of percent on....very slim odds on accomplishing that.
If only I had bought Monster Beverage Co. 30 years ago. It is up 213,000% in the last 30 years. Amazon in second with $168,000.
The temptation to think like this is just about irresistible. It was rampant during the dot.com boom. All the stories started with 'if you bought XXX in ___ (usually a few years ago and when it had first started trading), a $10,000 would be worth $_____ some figure at or approaching a $1 mil.
I met many people who had Microsoft early on, or had chances to get in as angel investors, or had options that they cashed out too early. Starbucks, too. They almost always ended with selling too early and a shrug of their shoulders.
But that was the dream, and it was called 'grab the next Microsoft in it's infancy.
One of the main mistakes investors commit is investing with the headlines. Reading 'X is going on' and buying or selling because of it.
Here's a trucking company saying on April 18 2023 that its industry is in recession. Sell, right?
No, Buy.
Stock up 11% in those three months. The stock is looking forward, not backward.
Transports are up an amazing 20% from there. 20%! I'm going to say that if trucking was in a recession in April, it won't be in September.
Bespoke @bespokeinvest JB Hunt $JBHT didn't have much positive sentiment towards the economy on its conference call yesterday. President Shelley Simpson: “We're in a challenging freight environment, where there is deflationary price pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary cost pressures. Simply stated, we're in a freight recession.”
2:21 PM · Apr 18, 2023 · 22.5K Views
JB Hunt $JBHT didn't have much positive sentiment towards the economy on its conference call yesterday.
President Shelley Simpson: “We're in a challenging freight environment, where there is deflationary price pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary cost…
You know that expression 'don't fight the fed?' meaning sell stocks when the fed is trying to slow the economy/inflation?
Horseradish. Doesn't work to sell stocks when the Fed is raising rates. And the current cycle is another example. Although to be fair we aren't at all time highs yet.
Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com @fundstrat · Feb 22, 2023 5/6 - Since 1970, there have been 14 tightening cycles >12 mos - 11 of 14 were “data dependent” and stocks rose 🌹 - During Greenspan, 5 of 5 cycles saw higher stocks - exceptions Burns (2x) and 2022 Powell
This one is for Igy because he often says stocks being up is meaningless because it's just Fed increasing its balance sheet. I don't have a position in this fight tho.
Seth Golden @SethCL There is NO relationship between Fed's balance sheet and the stock market. Not just during the current cycle, but during any cycle as shown by the accompanying charts. Ice cream sales and shark attacks increase when weather is hot, but neither cause each other. @michaelsantoli
There is NO relationship between Fed's balance sheet and the stock market. Not just during the current cycle, but during any cycle as shown by the accompanying charts.
This one is for Igy because he often says stocks being up is meaningless because it's just Fed increasing its balance sheet. I don't have a position in this fight tho.
Seth Golden @SethCL There is NO relationship between Fed's balance sheet and the stock market. Not just during the current cycle, but during any cycle as shown by the accompanying charts. Ice cream sales and shark attacks increase when weather is hot, but neither cause each other. @michaelsantoli
This one is for Igy because he often says stocks being up is meaningless because it's just Fed increasing its balance sheet. I don't have a position in this fight tho.
Seth Golden @SethCL There is NO relationship between Fed's balance sheet and the stock market. Not just during the current cycle, but during any cycle as shown by the accompanying charts. Ice cream sales and shark attacks increase when weather is hot, but neither cause each other. @michaelsantoli
the AI revolution is so powerful that Taiwan Semi (world's largest chpimaker) which is the sole chip supplier to NVDA and the main supplier to AAPL, QCOM and AMD reported its first revenue drop since 2019 and slashed guidance; it now expects full-year sales to decline 10%
This one is for Igy because he often says stocks being up is meaningless because it's just Fed increasing its balance sheet. I don't have a position in this fight tho.
Seth Golden @SethCL There is NO relationship between Fed's balance sheet and the stock market. Not just during the current cycle, but during any cycle as shown by the accompanying charts. Ice cream sales and shark attacks increase when weather is hot, but neither cause each other. @michaelsantoli
How about the correlation of Fed Balance sheet with Commercial Real Estate (CRE)? Now one can say the fall in CRE is the direct result of work from home. True to a large extent, but also the reach for yield caused investors to pour money into private and public Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) as a supposed non-correlated bond proxy. That is not working out so well for investors, public or private.
I thought Carvana was pretty much done months ago. They had had so many complaints and the concept seemed pretty silly to me. Well, lo and behold, it is up 1000% YTD. Wasn't expect the company to make a comeback.
'TSMC now expects its 2023 revenue to drop by 10 per cent, rather than the less than 5 per cent it forecast three months ago. This would translate into a 15 per cent revenue decrease in the second half of the year, compared with the same period in 2022.' https://t.co/ONr001b1MU
Six of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through July 17, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 24.13%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 18.27% while France's CAC 40 finished in third with a YTD gain of 10.08%.
Reminder of the gloom from analysts earlier this year.
From January 22, 2023, a prediction of at least SPX 3600 and probably much lower as the hard landing took shape. None of that happened. We're at SPX 4500.
BofA's Michael Hartnett: One way or another, S&P 500 is going to retest 3,600, likely break to new lows and deliver deep value for savvy investors. $SPX $DIA $QQQ $NYA
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