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  • retiree

    Anonymous Poster

    2 years ago 07/15/2023 9:24am EDT
    re: Econ primer

    Curious what folks think about how the current AI craze will play out.

    To me, this feels in a number of ways like the internet craze of the mid to late 90s that led up to the tech bubble and crash. If I were a betting man, I might put money on the expectation that there will be a steep run up on tech stocks that might last another 1 to 5 years, followed by a big tech crash. I think there’s probably a lot of potential money to be made speculating, but the winners will be those who take their money off the table at a good time.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/15/2023 11:01am EDT
    re: retiree

    A point to consider is the liquidity the Fed provided to markets in the year before Y2K. Remember computer systems needed to be upgraded, and there was a fear that ATMs, banking, and corporate systems would have glitches. This drove excess spending and capacity that was not fully utilized at the time. Covid spending did the same, to a much larger degree, and still is. AI, belongs with Meme stocks, crypto, ARKK, NFTs, etc. of examples of liquidity driven bubbles. AI is not new, and new systems will take years to drive profitability. The present speculation powered by liquidity following the regional bank collapse. Financial conditions have loosened since March, even with Fed rate hikes.

    This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/15/2023 11:01am EDT
    re: retiree

    A point to consider is the liquidity the Fed provided to markets in the year before Y2K. Remember computer systems needed to be changed, and there was a fear that ATMs, banking, and corporate systems would have glitches. AI, belongs with Meme stocks, crypto, ARKK, NFTs, etc. of examples of liquidity driven bubbles. AI is not new, and new systems will take yeats to drive profitability.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/15/2023 11:01am EDT
    re: retiree

    A point to consider is the liquidity the Fed provided to markets in the year before Y2K. Remember computer systems needed to be changed, and there was a fear that ATMs, banking, and corporate systems would have glitches. AI, belongs with Meme stocks, crypto, ARKK, NFTs, etc. of examples of liquidity driven bubbles. AI is not new, and new systems will take yeats to drive profitability.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/15/2023 11:01am EDT
    re: retiree

    A point to consider is the liquidity the Fed provided to markets in the year before Y2K. Remember computer systems needed to be changed, and there was a fear that ATMs, banking, and corporate systems would have glitches. AI, belongs with Meme stocks, crypto, ARKK, NFTs, etc. of examples of liquidity driven bubbles. AI is not new, and new systems will take yeats to drive profitability.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/15/2023 11:11am EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/15/2023 11:21am EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

  • WuTang_Finance

    Anonymous Poster

    2 years ago 07/15/2023 12:42pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

  • retiree

    Anonymous Poster

    2 years ago 07/15/2023 2:26pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    AI, belongs with Meme stocks, crypto, ARKK, NFTs, etc. of examples of liquidity driven bubbles. AI is not new, and new systems will take yeats to drive profitability.

    This is where you and I disagree. AI does not belong in that group. True, AI as a concept is not new, it’s been around a long time. However, it has finally become widely useful. In my view, we will see a step change in many areas as a result, and overall market behaviour should be wildly unpredictable, with a lot of upward movement preceding an eventual collapse.

    $0.02 please and thank you

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/16/2023 11:40am EDT
    re: retiree

    retiree wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    AI, belongs with Meme stocks, crypto, ARKK, NFTs, etc. of examples of liquidity driven bubbles. AI is not new, and new systems will take yeats to drive profitability.

    This is where you and I disagree. AI does not belong in that group. True, AI as a concept is not new, it’s been around a long time. However, it has finally become widely useful. In my view, we will see a step change in many areas as a result, and overall market behaviour should be wildly unpredictable, with a lot of upward movement preceding an eventual collapse.

    $0.02 please and thank you

    OK, I would assume you know more about the topic than I. There is a actors and writers strike in part based on future AI use. Modern film using technology, as art, is inferior to films made in the 50s, or earlier. They are patently fake looking. Mining data bases to produce something expediently may be financially successful, but esthetically lacking.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/16/2023 11:42am EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    retiree wrote:

    This is where you and I disagree. AI does not belong in that group. True, AI as a concept is not new, it’s been around a long time. However, it has finally become widely useful. In my view, we will see a step change in many areas as a result, and overall market behaviour should be wildly unpredictable, with a lot of upward movement preceding an eventual collapse.

    $0.02 please and thank you

    OK, I would assume you know more about the topic than I. There is a actors and writers strike in part based on future AI use. Modern film using technology, as art, is inferior to films made in the 50s, or earlier. They are patently fake looking. Mining data bases to produce something expediently may be financially successful, but esthetically lacking.

    Same could be said of the writing, storyline. Many current films unwatchable.

  • sayer of what must be said:

    Anonymous Poster

    2 years ago 07/16/2023 12:15pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    OK, I would assume you know more about the topic than I. There is a actors and writers strike in part based on future AI use. Modern film using technology, as art, is inferior to films made in the 50s, or earlier. They are patently fake looking. Mining data bases to produce something expediently may be financially successful, but esthetically lacking.

    Same could be said of the writing, storyline. Many current films unwatchable.

    How do you know? Do you know that? Or are you just once again spouting your make return to the good ole' days diatribe?

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/16/2023 1:36pm EDT
    re: sayer of what must be said:

    sayer of what must be said: wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Same could be said of the writing, storyline. Many current films unwatchable.

    How do you know? Do you know that? Or are you just once again spouting your make return to the good ole' days diatribe?

    Matter of opinion of course. On Friday I watched Tea for Sympathy with Deborah Kerr, John Kerr, and Lief Erickson, 1956. Far better than any of the recent movies I have viewed. Of course without the unnecessary violence and sex to tell a story. Yes the good old days were better in many ways.

  • Know-nothing know-it-all

    Anonymous Poster

    2 years ago 07/16/2023 1:48pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    retiree wrote:

    This is where you and I disagree. AI does not belong in that group. True, AI as a concept is not new, it’s been around a long time. However, it has finally become widely useful. In my view, we will see a step change in many areas as a result, and overall market behaviour should be wildly unpredictable, with a lot of upward movement preceding an eventual collapse.

    $0.02 please and thank you

    OK, I would assume you know more about the topic than I. There is an actors and writers strike in part based on future AI use. Modern film using technology, as art, is inferior to films made in the 50s, or earlier. They are patently fake looking. Mining data bases to produce something expediently may be financially successful, but esthetically lacking.

    Aesthetically**

  • registered

    Johannes

    Member since 02/01/2020.

    359 posts. Last post 1 year ago.
    2 years ago 07/16/2023 1:52pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Matter of opinion of course. On Friday I watched Tea for Sympathy with Deborah Kerr, John Kerr, and Lief Erickson, 1956. Far better than any of the recent movies I have viewed. Of course without the unnecessary violence and sex to tell a story. Yes the good old days were better in many ways.

    I admit to being surprised to learn of your affection for a movie centered on the social struggles of an alleged homosexual youth. There may be hope for you yet.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/16/2023 3:49pm EDT
    re: Johannes

    Johannes wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Matter of opinion of course. On Friday I watched Tea for Sympathy with Deborah Kerr, John Kerr, and Lief Erickson, 1956. Far better than any of the recent movies I have viewed. Of course without the unnecessary violence and sex to tell a story. Yes the good old days were better in many ways.

    I admit to being surprised to learn of your affection for a movie centered on the social struggles of an alleged homosexual youth. There may be hope for you yet.

    You would be wrong to believe homosexuality is something unique. The Pride movement is more about degrading traditional values.

    The husband character (Leif Erickson) appeared more latent homosexual, hanging out with the boys, no desire to touch the wife (Deborah Kerr). As the wife says the boy (John Kerr) is more of a man, willing to be kind. Something you could learn from.

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/16/2023 3:52pm EDT
    re: Know-nothing know-it-all

    Know-nothing know-it-all wrote:

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    OK, I would assume you know more about the topic than I. There is an actors and writers strike in part based on future AI use. Modern film using technology, as art, is inferior to films made in the 50s, or earlier. They are patently fake looking. Mining data bases to produce something expediently may be financially successful, but esthetically lacking.

    Aesthetically**

    **

    “The fundamental distinction between aesthetics and esthetics is that "aesthetic" is used in British English, whereas "esthetics" is used in American English. Aesthetics and esthetics are two terms frequently used to discuss ideas such as beauty and taste.”

  • Ghost of Igloi

    Member since 05/09/2006.

    31,334 posts. Last post 10 hours ago.
    2 years ago 07/16/2023 4:02pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

  • retiree

    Anonymous Poster

    2 years ago 07/16/2023 4:32pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    retiree wrote:

    This is where you and I disagree. AI does not belong in that group. True, AI as a concept is not new, it’s been around a long time. However, it has finally become widely useful. In my view, we will see a step change in many areas as a result, and overall market behaviour should be wildly unpredictable, with a lot of upward movement preceding an eventual collapse.

    $0.02 please and thank you

    OK, I would assume you know more about the topic than I.

    I think this is almost certainly true, although I guess you never know. I’ve been in and around forms of artificial intelligence since my undergrad, so coming up on 40 years. I’ve been deeply involved with data science and machine learning in my work, when I was still working, for a long time. AI for the longest time was entirely uninspiring. But every now and then we arrive at a critical point where things change radically. I think this is one of those times, and we will see things unfold very quickly and largely unpredictably. While most market sectors are likely to feel the headwinds of further rate hikes, I will be completely unsurprised to see the main US market indices continue to March upward, driven by tech, for some unknown time (I think 1 to 5 years).

    Of course, I could very well be very wrong.

  • registered

    Johannes

    Member since 02/01/2020.

    359 posts. Last post 1 year ago.
    2 years ago 07/16/2023 4:52pm EDT
    re: Ghost of Igloi

    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Johannes wrote:

    I admit to being surprised to learn of your affection for a movie centered on the social struggles of an alleged homosexual youth. There may be hope for you yet.

    You would be wrong to believe homosexuality is something unique. The Pride movement is more about degrading traditional values.

    The husband character (Leif Erickson) appeared more latent homosexual, hanging out with the boys, no desire to touch the wife (Deborah Kerr). As the wife says the boy (John Kerr) is more of a man, willing to be kind. Something you could learn from.

    Never said anything about homosexuality being unique. Interesting that you think the coach appeared to be homosexual.

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