Labor participation rates are just one factor. Inflation hurts main street in that the costs of goods becomes prohibitive. You know how much complaining there has been about rising prices - how much more of that do you think people can afford? It also hurts growth due to the cost of borrowing.
What you said there has nothing to do with my comment above. The NBER won't declare a recession with the unemployment rate so low.
The Fed needs to stop. The reason inflation has dropped as it has isn't due to what they've done. We're just moving further away from the even that caused the inflation...the ending of the pandemic. The raising of rates have done next to nothing to help...neither have any polices of Biden's either or any realistic policy that anyone could dream up. The global economy affects inflation more than anything, and what The Fed can do about inflation is a drop in a bucket. Makes them feel relevant I guess.
Apparently economic growth is slowing as the Fed raised rates. That is the whole idea - higher costs to borrowing dampen growth and spending by both businesses and consumers. Something lowered the metrics of economic growth in the last few months, and by all appearances, it was the higher cost of borrowing.
And I quote from an article on the subject:
"U.S. gross domestic product grew by a 1.1% annualized rate over the three months ending in March, according to government data released Thursday. The data marked a slowdown from 2.6% growth in the previous quarter. The slowdown resulted from a decline in business investment and residential fixed investment, which includes money spent on home buying and construction, the data showed."
Note: I have seen numbers of 2.0 % Real growth rate for 1st quarter '23, but that is still a slow down.
Also, European Central Bank and the Bank of England have been raising rates overseas, so world banks seem to be on the same track. And Inflation and growth is moderating. Besides insisting this is not due to the action of the Fed and Central Banks, I don't see compelling evidence that it isn't.
Ghost of Igloi wrote: The period of S&P 500 companies over earning has ended. Stimulus, low interest rates done, higher labor costs, margins shrinking. Last year 2022 GAAP EPS down to $171. I expect by Q3 2023 the previous 52 week number to be in the $150s. Hard to see a year end 2023 S&P 500 much above 3,000, even without a recession.
Flagpole wrote: Permabear.
Ghost of Igloi wrote: Agip, if you don’t mind bookmark this for year end review.
One guy who Igy reveres, Jeremy Grantham, said in April 85% chance of stock market crash this year and the S & P likely to be lower than 2000 year-end. So, Igy relatively positive compared to Grantham.
Here's mighty B of A forecasting SP500 3600 in the first half of 2023. Instead we got a rollicking rally to 4458, or 18%ish. Hard to be much wronger than this one. Lord knows how many billions it cost investors who took their advice. Although these analysts were correct about the 4% on the 10 year.
HARTNETT “Nasdaq taking 10-yr yield back to 4%, US$ surging in May, financial conditions tightening again; once spreads in global HY bonds back above >550bps, we expect another bout of risk-off to return late June ..” If at 1st you dont succeed...(Jan. note)
🗣 HARTNETT “Nasdaq taking 10-yr yield back to 4%, US$ surging in May, financial conditions tightening again; once spreads in global HY bonds back above >550bps, we expect another bout of risk-off to return late June ..”
bad news over at the inflation nowcast...the Fed now thinks inflation is rising rather briskly. After it has been falling for many months. That will be bad for stocks and bonds if the actual numbers follow the nowcast.
The point being a lot gets posted here. Very little specific at all, and when the market goes down--quiet. Especially from Trolls, or posters like Flagpole.
Ha! 2022 was a year of prolific posting on this thread. Granted, much of it was your gloating and posting nonsense tweets. Just another example of your struggles with the truth.
What you said there has nothing to do with my comment above. The NBER won't declare a recession with the unemployment rate so low.
The Fed needs to stop. The reason inflation has dropped as it has isn't due to what they've done. We're just moving further away from the even that caused the inflation...the ending of the pandemic. The raising of rates have done next to nothing to help...neither have any polices of Biden's either or any realistic policy that anyone could dream up. The global economy affects inflation more than anything, and what The Fed can do about inflation is a drop in a bucket. Makes them feel relevant I guess.
Apparently economic growth is slowing as the Fed raised rates. That is the whole idea - higher costs to borrowing dampen growth and spending by both businesses and consumers. Something lowered the metrics of economic growth in the last few months, and by all appearances, it was the higher cost of borrowing.
And I quote from an article on the subject:
"U.S. gross domestic product grew by a 1.1% annualized rate over the three months ending in March, according to government data released Thursday. The data marked a slowdown from 2.6% growth in the previous quarter. The slowdown resulted from a decline in business investment and residential fixed investment, which includes money spent on home buying and construction, the data showed."
Note: I have seen numbers of 2.0 % Real growth rate for 1st quarter '23, but that is still a slow down.
Also, European Central Bank and the Bank of England have been raising rates overseas, so world banks seem to be on the same track. And Inflation and growth is moderating. Besides insisting this is not due to the action of the Fed and Central Banks, I don't see compelling evidence that it isn't.
If inflation heads north again (as agip just posted at least someone out there is concerned about), and the unemployment rate stays historically low, then all of this rate raising has been for naught, only succeeding in keeping the markets artificially low. I don't really care about that as eventually there will be a pressure release and the market will climb heartily northward again (and to be clear, at this point I only care about that because other people need the market to go north). I would like to see The Fed at least "do no harm," and I'm not seeing this now.
You might think that I would want The Fed to raise rates to continue to try to ease inflation because that could only make Biden look good...but I'm not convinced it has done much, and even if so, there can always be too much of a good thing. I think The Fed is chasing after an unemployment rate figure (higher than what it is now, of course) that might not be attainable anytime soon. It should stop what it has been doing.
Ghost of Igloi wrote: The period of S&P 500 companies over earning has ended. Stimulus, low interest rates done, higher labor costs, margins shrinking. Last year 2022 GAAP EPS down to $171. I expect by Q3 2023 the previous 52 week number to be in the $150s. Hard to see a year end 2023 S&P 500 much above 3,000, even without a recession.
Flagpole wrote: Permabear.
Ghost of Igloi wrote: Agip, if you don’t mind bookmark this for year end review.
One guy who Igy reveres, Jeremy Grantham, said in April 85% chance of stock market crash this year and the S & P likely to be lower than 2000 year-end. So, Igy relatively positive compared to Grantham.
I have seen little real data and market action that says this is nothing more than a Bear Market Rally. Higher rates are very poor for Technology, and rates will likely stay higher for longer. So these moves up are very telling examples of speculation. And yet the Troll is calling for truth. :-)
Finally, we start to get some reality (after all the AI hype) with Q2 earnings reports. Samsung "reported its worst decline in quarterly revenue since at least 2009, stoking uncertainty over when a year-long electronics & memory chip demand slump will end" https://t.co/E2J6OdIkt0
One guy who Igy reveres, Jeremy Grantham, said in April 85% chance of stock market crash this year and the S & P likely to be lower than 2000 year-end. So, Igy relatively positive compared to Grantham.
I have seen little real data and market action that says this is nothing more than a Bear Market Rally. Higher rates are very poor for Technology, and rates will likely stay higher for longer. So these moves up are very telling examples of speculation. And yet the Troll is calling for truth. :-)
One guy who Igy reveres, Jeremy Grantham, said in April 85% chance of stock market crash this year and the S & P likely to be lower than 2000 year-end. So, Igy relatively positive compared to Grantham.
I have seen little real data and market action that says this is nothing more than a Bear Market Rally. Higher rates are very poor for Technology, and rates will likely stay higher for longer. So these moves up are very telling examples of speculation. And yet the Troll is calling for truth. :-)
The S&P 500 is less than 8% from it's All Time High. And that is an ATH that was a decade in the making.
This has frankly been an unprecedented wealth building opportunity. Yet some have managed to be on the wrong side of it, unfortunately.
I have seen little real data and market action that says this is nothing more than a Bear Market Rally. Higher rates are very poor for Technology, and rates will likely stay higher for longer. So these moves up are very telling examples of speculation. And yet the Troll is calling for truth. :-)
The S&P 500 is less than 8% from it's All Time High. And that is an ATH that was a decade in the making.
This has frankly been an unprecedented wealth building opportunity. Yet some have managed to be on the wrong side of it, unfortunately.
Last year was a tough year for the markets. People panicked. The people who sold locked in their losses. The people who refrained from selling have recouped all of their temporary losses and those that added to their portfolio with the massive dips have made out like bandits.
I have seen little real data and market action that says this is nothing more than a Bear Market Rally. Higher rates are very poor for Technology, and rates will likely stay higher for longer. So these moves up are very telling examples of speculation. And yet the Troll is calling for truth. :-)
The S&P 500 is less than 8% from it's All Time High. And that is an ATH that was a decade in the making.
This has frankly been an unprecedented wealth building opportunity. Yet some have managed to be on the wrong side of it, unfortunately.
If by the bolded part above you mean since 1989 when I started investing, then I agree. Long term wins. Long term wins. Long term wins.
Buying at these levels brings to mind the Woody Allen joke: "This guy goes to a psychiatrist and says, Doc, my brother’s crazy. He thinks he’s a chicken. The doctor says, Well, why don’t you turn him in? And the guy says, I would but I need the eggs."
The market just seems to keep grinding up. And with that in mind, I added some more Nvidiia this morning, and already up on it for the day.
The S&P 500 is less than 8% from it's All Time High. And that is an ATH that was a decade in the making.
This has frankly been an unprecedented wealth building opportunity. Yet some have managed to be on the wrong side of it, unfortunately.
Last year was a tough year for the markets. People panicked. The people who sold locked in their losses. The people who refrained from selling have recouped all of their temporary losses and those that added to their portfolio with the massive dips have made out like bandits.
Panicking about the stock market should NEVER happen. It ONLY happens to people who are trying to make short-term gains OR who are not properly diversified...well, or also those who are just too stupid to know better.
1) Should you panic if you are a new investor and have decades before retirement? No.
2) Should you panic if you are IN retirement? Not if you did what you should have done...invested enough while working, retired with NO debt including a paid-for house and up to 3 YEARS of expenses liquid saved outside of stocks.
It is SIMPLE to put yourself in a position to never have to panic about stocks, but people are greedy and chase a big quick gain or just don't invest enough regularly enough.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2023 (with 18 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 14 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 12 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Did you read this, Igy? It’s quite optimistic about Samsung. Even your boys at Morgan Stanley appear bullish on Samsung. And the graph headline reads, “Samsung Outperforms Kospi”. I guess that’s the truth.
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