SOXS bought at $9.57 7/3 , over $11.00 earlier today. :-)
Congradulations.
I might make a speculative trade of this sort, very infrequently, with a tiny amount of funds. Frankly, it's just a diversion.
But I don't confuse that with investing. Their are worlds of difference and surely a financial advisor would know this.
To resort to this kind of comparison, one would think that it be done out of desperation (no better argument to be made) or that one was investing major portions of their portfolio in this manner.
And to make this painstakingly clear, by speculative I mean at or below 5% of one's investment portfolio.
SOXS bought at $9.57 7/3 , over $11.00 earlier today. :-)
TECS bought at $13.73 7/3, over $14.60 earlier today. :-)
Not that it matters, but I bought the exact opposite (the triple leveraged bull version) TECL this morning at 51.19 and it is now at 52.06. Again, pocket change, lunch money, but couldn't resist.
I think it's time The Fed recognizes that its string of raising rates has had little to nothing to do with the tamping down the job market. It really needs to stop raising rates. The real target is inflation, and that rate has dropped consistently for 10 straight months. It will continue to trend toward the norm too even if The Fed does nothing.
The job market is hot and likely will remain hot for a long while yet, and here are the three main reasons (none of which have to do with Biden):
1) Boomers are retiring...and retiring for good. Many of them did very well in the stock market, and so they can afford to just flat out retire rather than take on part-time or easier jobs as many retired people have done in the past.
2) Fewer immigrants here. The MAIN reason we have that now is because the pandemic kept a lot of them from coming here. Trump's demonizing of them didn't help, but that's a small factor.
3) Obamacare (Affordable Care Act if you'd rather) has allowed a very reasonable way to retire before age 65 while not having to be as concerned about healthcare attached to a full-time job.
It's time (long past time) to allow normal market forces shape the job market and how much companies need to pay people to get them to work for them. The Fed should keep its hands off. Inflation has gone down. No need to keep raising rates.
I agree with the Feds stated direction, which was to pause at their last meeting, but resume rate hikes depending on the data, at a slower pace as they near their target. They are slowing the rate of increases. The risk of a recession has gone down and a more moderate inflation rate will help the economy long term. They are approaching their target and the notion of a couple of more quarter point raises this year into early next year seems prudent.
This post was edited 12 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
incorrectly sited target interest rate while intending inflation rate
Bond market disagrees with your analysis with the 2 Year Treasury yield at a 16 year high. How come your analysis always excuses your positioning?
Meh. Positioning schmichioning. There is no positioning. I just own very diversified mutual funds made up of stocks, and that's the best way to go over time. People are in trouble when they start talking about "positioning." You're trying to be and hoping to be intellectual about a subject that doesn't require it. Invest today what you don't need so that you have money later when you don't have an income. Diversified mutual funds made up of stocks is the way to go. That's it.
I think it's time The Fed recognizes that its string of raising rates has had little to nothing to do with the tamping down the job market. It really needs to stop raising rates. The real target is inflation, and that rate has dropped consistently for 10 straight months. It will continue to trend toward the norm too even if The Fed does nothing.
The job market is hot and likely will remain hot for a long while yet, and here are the three main reasons (none of which have to do with Biden):
1) Boomers are retiring...and retiring for good. Many of them did very well in the stock market, and so they can afford to just flat out retire rather than take on part-time or easier jobs as many retired people have done in the past.
2) Fewer immigrants here. The MAIN reason we have that now is because the pandemic kept a lot of them from coming here. Trump's demonizing of them didn't help, but that's a small factor.
3) Obamacare (Affordable Care Act if you'd rather) has allowed a very reasonable way to retire before age 65 while not having to be as concerned about healthcare attached to a full-time job.
It's time (long past time) to allow normal market forces shape the job market and how much companies need to pay people to get them to work for them. The Fed should keep its hands off. Inflation has gone down. No need to keep raising rates.
I agree with the Feds stated direction, which was to pause at their last meeting, but resume rate hikes depending on the data, at a slower pace as they near their target. They are slowing the rate of increases. The risk of a recession has gone down and a more moderate interest rate will help the economy long term. They are approaching their target and the notion of a couple of more quarter point raises this year into early next year seems prudent.
Seems silly to me. It isn't going to HURT anything, but it's not going to help either, so why do it?
If we go by the NBER's definition of a recession, we likely can't even have one in the near term because the unemployment rate is so low (I don't use its definition though).
One possible unintended consequence is that with the raises, this keeps the stock market from going north much, and that MIGHT keep a few people in the work force a little longer than they would have been, so when The Fed finally starts to lower rates, we might have a short period of time where there's a mass exodus from the workforce (due to a market boom) that will hurt an already smallish labor force. No guarantee of that, but messing around with the interest rates too much can have results you didn't want.
Bond market disagrees with your analysis with the 2 Year Treasury yield at a 16 year high. How come your analysis always excuses your positioning?
Are you really going to question someone who has beaten the market 35 times out of the last 32 years?
You WOULD be wise to not question me, because what I do is the absolute BEST way to invest...BUT the reason not to question me has nothing to do with my track record in the market...that is mostly luck...lucky early moves when I first started investing, fortunate extra dumps into the market mid-year when it was down, etc. The fact that I invested at all isn't luck, and the fact that I invested in the best way (continuing to more and more diversify my mutual funds made up of stocks in as many sectors as possible) is not luck, but the percentages of holdings in certain years over time has been lucky. I can't have that level of luck going forward because I am not heavily weighted or even slightly weighted in any one area these days...but I don't need luck anymore.
The one thing I DON'T do that my stage in life would allow is that I don't invest in individual stocks. The criteria for that is that you have at least a million dollars invested in mutual funds, you have zero debt including a paid for house and you are still investing in retirement accounts at least 15% of your income if you or a spouse is still working. If you are in that position, you CAN then invest in individual stocks, and you should buy no fewer than 5 and you should have no more than about 20% of those stocks in any one sector of the market. So, I COULD do that, but I just don't have the need to make more money at this point. I have more than enough.
I agree with the Feds stated direction, which was to pause at their last meeting, but resume rate hikes depending on the data, at a slower pace as they near their target. They are slowing the rate of increases. The risk of a recession has gone down and a more moderate interest rate will help the economy long term. They are approaching their target and the notion of a couple of more quarter point raises this year into early next year seems prudent.
Seems silly to me. It isn't going to HURT anything, but it's not going to help either, so why do it?
If we go by the NBER's definition of a recession, we likely can't even have one in the near term because the unemployment rate is so low (I don't use its definition though).
One possible unintended consequence is that with the raises, this keeps the stock market from going north much, and that MIGHT keep a few people in the work force a little longer than they would have been, so when The Fed finally starts to lower rates, we might have a short period of time where there's a mass exodus from the workforce (due to a market boom) that will hurt an already smallish labor force. No guarantee of that, but messing around with the interest rates too much can have results you didn't want.
Labor participation rates are just one factor. Inflation hurts main street in that the costs of goods becomes prohibitive. You know how much complaining there has been about rising prices - how much more of that do you think people can afford? It also hurts growth due to the cost of borrowing. The Fed is simply trying to cool down the economy to a sustainable level, what it has been doing has had some noticeable effect, and it's too early to take their foot off the brake entirely.
SOXS bought at $9.57 7/3 , over $11.00 earlier today. :-)
Congradulations.
I might make a speculative trade of this sort, very infrequently, with a tiny amount of funds. Frankly, it's just a diversion.
But I don't confuse that with investing. Their are worlds of difference and surely a financial advisor would know this.
To resort to this kind of comparison, one would think that it be done out of desperation (no better argument to be made) or that one was investing major portions of their portfolio in this manner.
And to make this painstakingly clear, by speculative I mean at or below 5% of one's investment portfolio.
The point being a lot gets posted here. Very little specific at all, and when the market goes down--quiet. Especially from Trolls, or posters like Flagpole.
I might make a speculative trade of this sort, very infrequently, with a tiny amount of funds. Frankly, it's just a diversion.
But I don't confuse that with investing. Their are worlds of difference and surely a financial advisor would know this.
To resort to this kind of comparison, one would think that it be done out of desperation (no better argument to be made) or that one was investing major portions of their portfolio in this manner.
And to make this painstakingly clear, by speculative I mean at or below 5% of one's investment portfolio.
The point being a lot gets posted here. Very little specific at all, and when the market goes down--quiet. Especially from Trolls, or posters like Flagpole.
Cogent point being - markets fluctuate.
Understand that the group here are not day traders, not swing traders, either, for that matter. They are long term investors even to the extent of largely prefering passive index funds over actively managed funds.
As such, they are mostly concerned with long term trends and the strategies with the greatest likelihood of delivering favorable returns.
To compare those day trades with long term portfolio management is ludicrous. Again, to do so, it is either an act of desperation or a tacit admission that one is handling their portfolio in said fashion (which we both know is not the case).
I might make a speculative trade of this sort, very infrequently, with a tiny amount of funds. Frankly, it's just a diversion.
But I don't confuse that with investing. Their are worlds of difference and surely a financial advisor would know this.
To resort to this kind of comparison, one would think that it be done out of desperation (no better argument to be made) or that one was investing major portions of their portfolio in this manner.
And to make this painstakingly clear, by speculative I mean at or below 5% of one's investment portfolio.
The point being a lot gets posted here. Very little specific at all, and when the market goes down--quiet. Especially from Trolls, or posters like Flagpole.
someone should go back to the October 2022 lows and copy-paste some posts from that period.
The point being a lot gets posted here. Very little specific at all, and when the market goes down--quiet. Especially from Trolls, or posters like Flagpole.
Cogent point being - markets fluctuate.
Understand that the group here are not day traders, not swing traders, either, for that matter. They are long term investors even to the extent of largely prefering passive index funds over actively managed funds.
As such, they are mostly concerned with long term trends and the strategies with the greatest likelihood of delivering favorable returns.
To compare those day trades with long term portfolio management is ludicrous. Again, to do so, it is either an act of desperation or a tacit admission that one is handling their portfolio in said fashion (which we both know is not the case).
Enough said.
All those posters missed the point that long term investment returns are determined by cash flow and price. And if you are truly an investor you would be paying attention to the bond market.
Seems silly to me. It isn't going to HURT anything, but it's not going to help either, so why do it?
If we go by the NBER's definition of a recession, we likely can't even have one in the near term because the unemployment rate is so low (I don't use its definition though).
One possible unintended consequence is that with the raises, this keeps the stock market from going north much, and that MIGHT keep a few people in the work force a little longer than they would have been, so when The Fed finally starts to lower rates, we might have a short period of time where there's a mass exodus from the workforce (due to a market boom) that will hurt an already smallish labor force. No guarantee of that, but messing around with the interest rates too much can have results you didn't want.
Labor participation rates are just one factor. Inflation hurts main street in that the costs of goods becomes prohibitive. You know how much complaining there has been about rising prices - how much more of that do you think people can afford? It also hurts growth due to the cost of borrowing.
What you said there has nothing to do with my comment above. The NBER won't declare a recession with the unemployment rate so low.
The Fed needs to stop. The reason inflation has dropped as it has isn't due to what they've done. We're just moving further away from the even that caused the inflation...the ending of the pandemic. The raising of rates have done next to nothing to help...neither have any polices of Biden's either or any realistic policy that anyone could dream up. The global economy affects inflation more than anything, and what The Fed can do about inflation is a drop in a bucket. Makes them feel relevant I guess.
I might make a speculative trade of this sort, very infrequently, with a tiny amount of funds. Frankly, it's just a diversion.
But I don't confuse that with investing. Their are worlds of difference and surely a financial advisor would know this.
To resort to this kind of comparison, one would think that it be done out of desperation (no better argument to be made) or that one was investing major portions of their portfolio in this manner.
And to make this painstakingly clear, by speculative I mean at or below 5% of one's investment portfolio.
The point being a lot gets posted here. Very little specific at all, and when the market goes down--quiet. Especially from Trolls, or posters like Flagpole.
Pffft! You think I actually watch the stock market or care if it goes up or down on any given day or even within a period of time? Oh man, you so do not know anything. Sorry that you didn't know how to invest properly so that you sweat every day watching the markets. I made sure not to be in that position.
The only reason I posted here recently is just for an update about where the S&P 500 is after your declaration. And, let's be clear, you didn't just SAY the S&P 500 would drop to or near 3000 by the end of the year, you asked agip to bookmark the page for you so you could revisit later because you were so confident of your pontification...oh, and you did that after I called you a permabear (which you are). Also to be clear, I didn't make an end of the year call on any of the indices. We're just keeping track of what you said. Year's half over. We shall see what the rest of the year will bring. Maybe you will be right at the S&P 500 will drop 1400 points from where it is now.
The thing is though that you shouldn't really care.
someone should go back to the October 2022 lows and copy-paste some posts from that period.
agip, here you go...from 2/23/2023:
Ghost of Igloi wrote: The period of S&P 500 companies over earning has ended. Stimulus, low interest rates done, higher labor costs, margins shrinking. Last year 2022 GAAP EPS down to $171. I expect by Q3 2023 the previous 52 week number to be in the $150s. Hard to see a year end 2023 S&P 500 much above 3,000, even without a recession.
Flagpole wrote: Permabear.
Ghost of Igloi wrote: Agip, if you don’t mind bookmark this for year end review.
Ghost of Igloi wrote: The period of S&P 500 companies over earning has ended. Stimulus, low interest rates done, higher labor costs, margins shrinking. Last year 2022 GAAP EPS down to $171. I expect by Q3 2023 the previous 52 week number to be in the $150s. Hard to see a year end 2023 S&P 500 much above 3,000, even without a recession.
Flagpole wrote: Permabear.
Ghost of Igloi wrote: Agip, if you don’t mind bookmark this for year end review.
The S&P 500 was at 3,991 when Igy wrote that. Since then, the index has risen to 4,411, and it is up nearly 15% YTD.
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