Oregon 1-3 is lights out. 4 frias and 5 Thompson extremely consistent. Barnett at 6 they need to let run wild and go for something special or crash out. I’m that confident that Oregon 4 and 5 will hold up. They need to take a risk with one runner. Barnett was great at Oklahoma state finishing 44. I think she needs to try a crash or flourish strategy.
Oregon 1-3 are very accomplished but I don't know that in aggregate they will best NC St 1-3. I don't think Thompson has been that good so far this season although B1G was her best result of the season. Perhaps peaking late, we will see. Frias has run twice, at about the same level. But, for comparison at B1G she got beat by Caron and barely beat Forsyth while at Nuttycombe 2 weeks prior Michalak beat Caron by 16 seconds and beat Forsyth by 24 seconds. Engelhardt has been running 10-15 seconds behind Michalak.
I do agree Oregon is the underdog. I give them 20% chance. They need an unusual performance from one runner.
Disagree.
Believe OR is a very slight favorite over NC State w/BYU a clear bronze medal over whichever team finishes 4th on the podium.
Draw same conclusion as Isaac Wood: Cherotich/OR #1 is lots better than most think -- note her 40+ second win over teammate Cherubet at Dellinger along with a 15 second win at B1Gs over a field loaded with 2024 AAs -- while no one seems to have faith in Thomson/OR #6 at B1Gs who finished 32nd at 2024 NCAAs.
Actually Barnett beat Thompson at Big ten. She was 7th and Thompson 9th. It was her first race over 1500 in over a year. I think due to late training after world championships might be growing in confidence with this distance.
Actually Barnett beat Thompson at Big ten. She was 7th and Thompson 9th. It was her first race over 1500 in over a year. I think due to late training after world championships might be growing in confidence with this distance.
That is understood. The long shot hope (see post #600 to this thread) was that since Thompson ran a 15:31 on the track a year ago, maybe she is holding back with the wild possibility she is really worthy of a TiC Rating much lower than her current 15:49 ‘Season Fitness Estimate’.
Actually Barnett beat Thompson at Big ten. She was 7th and Thompson 9th. It was her first race over 1500 in over a year. I think due to late training after world championships might be growing in confidence with this distance.
yes my error, Thompson's result at Regionals was her best....
I think when all is said and done we will see BYU ran their best race of the season, and ditto for Hartman, Gapes, Michalak, Engelhardt - but not for Napoleon, Rauber, Templier.
I think when all is said and done we will see BYU ran their best race of the season, and ditto for Hartman, Gapes, Michalak, Engelhardt - but not for Napoleon, Rauber, Templier.
to my point, Chamberlain 4th, 7 seconds off Jane was outstanding, but their 5th, Lovell was only 56 seconds off Jane, vs 68, 84, 104 in prior races. Rohatinsky, their 4th was 51 vs 60, 109, 81 and Roberts their 3rd was 42 vs 68 and 80. Michalak stayed 20 seconds off of Hartman/Gapes per every race and Engelhardt stayed about 15 seconds off Michalak - despite how fast Hartman and Gapes were. OR other than Aaylidiz and Barnett had tough days.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
I think when all is said and done we will see BYU ran their best race of the season, and ditto for Hartman, Gapes, Michalak, Engelhardt - but not for Napoleon, Rauber, Templier.
to my point, Chamberlain 4th, 7 seconds off Jane was outstanding, but their 5th, Lovell was only 56 seconds off Jane, vs 68, 84, 104 in prior races. Rohatinsky, their 4th was 51 vs 60, 109, 81 and Roberts their 3rd was 42 vs 68 and 80. Michalak stayed 20 seconds off of Hartman/Gapes per every race and Engelhardt stayed about 15 seconds off Michalak - despite how fast Hartman and Gapes were. OR other than Aaylidiz and Barnett had tough days.
I could argue that BYU’s gaps narrowed because Jane Hedengren had an off day. Chamberlain is outstanding. Others don’t really matter before they can get into AA positions. Gapes, Hartman, Michalak, and Engelhardt all ran as expected, Napoleon was 20 places off, but NC State has enough buffer to absorb her miss. OR is known for choke during big times.
I could argue that BYU’s gaps narrowed because Jane Hedengren had an off day. Chamberlain is outstanding. Others don’t really matter before they can get into AA positions. Gapes, Hartman, Michalak, and Engelhardt all ran as expected, Napoleon was 20 places off, but NC State has enough buffer to absorb her miss. OR is known for choke during big times.
State has a knack for doing 'just enough'.
Napoleon faded this time. (As did Gapes and Hartman in other early season races), but Michalak and Engelhardt held firm...and they had to, as on this day there was no help from Rauber and Templier.
Chamberlain by the way was great. Probably her best BYU race.
As the starter of this thread, I felt like popping in here to say, during race review, I just made a shocking discovery. It is so sublime, so incredible, so beautiful and so wonderful.
I think when all is said and done we will see BYU ran their best race of the season, and ditto for Hartman, Gapes, Michalak, Engelhardt - but not for Napoleon, Rauber, Templier.
to my point, Chamberlain 4th, 7 seconds off Jane was outstanding, but their 5th, Lovell was only 56 seconds off Jane, vs 68, 84, 104 in prior races. Rohatinsky, their 4th was 51 vs 60, 109, 81 and Roberts their 3rd was 42 vs 68 and 80. Michalak stayed 20 seconds off of Hartman/Gapes per every race and Engelhardt stayed about 15 seconds off Michalak - despite how fast Hartman and Gapes were. OR other than Aaylidiz and Barnett had tough days.
let me correct myself....Frias was very good as well for OR
As the starter of this thread, I felt like popping in here to say, during race review, I just made a shocking discovery. It is so sublime, so incredible, so beautiful and so wonderful.
I realize if I was a curious reader, I would probably be a bit peeved if the OP did not reveal this discovery which he has announced that he discovered. But maybe there are a few out there that want to go on a treasure hunt and discover this for themselves, so shall I first give them that opportunity?
It’s so wonderfully incredible that you can’t make it up.
to my point, Chamberlain 4th, 7 seconds off Jane was outstanding, but their 5th, Lovell was only 56 seconds off Jane, vs 68, 84, 104 in prior races. Rohatinsky, their 4th was 51 vs 60, 109, 81 and Roberts their 3rd was 42 vs 68 and 80. Michalak stayed 20 seconds off of Hartman/Gapes per every race and Engelhardt stayed about 15 seconds off Michalak - despite how fast Hartman and Gapes were. OR other than Aaylidiz and Barnett had tough days.
I could argue that BYU’s gaps narrowed because Jane Hedengren had an off day. Chamberlain is outstanding. Others don’t really matter before they can get into AA positions. Gapes, Hartman, Michalak, and Engelhardt all ran as expected, Napoleon was 20 places off, but NC State has enough buffer to absorb her miss. OR is known for choke during big times.
Jane ran faster than she did before....hard for me to say it was a off day...if it was it was not much