Trabuco very nice, but only their top 4 are strong, 5 is their weak link.
Vista goes 7 deep, Bethlehem 5.
I pick 1- Vista, 2- Bethlehem 3- Trabuco.
I agree, I don’t see how vista loses.
Ive got Bethlehem over Trabuco but it could go either way. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Bethlehem wins on points but Trabuco has a decently lower team average.
The problem for Trabuco is thier 1-2 could be a full minute faster than bethlehems pack but in actual team scoring numbers that would still look like the two Trabuco girls in the top 4 and the Bethlehem pack going 15-20. Whereas the Bethlehem pack could be a minute in front of Trabuco’s 5 and she places around 90+.
Obviously these are estimations. If either team has a good day, they will take it.
Vista isn't just 7 deep. Sure, only 7 matter that day, but they had 14(?) girls under 19 mins at NXR. I can't image a world in which training with a large group wouldn't be beneficial. The open team won with 29 points. Let's just say "if" something happens between now and NXN they have nothing to worry about. They run well in tough conditions. They aren't weather dependant. Look at nationals last year they took 3rd and no one saw that coming. They returned all of them, and a few of them got replaced by even better runners. Why would anyone think they aren't the #1 team?
Trabuco very nice, but only their top 4 are strong, 5 is their weak link.
Vista goes 7 deep, Bethlehem 5.
I pick 1- Vista, 2- Bethlehem 3- Trabuco.
I agree, I don’t see how vista loses.
Ive got Bethlehem over Trabuco but it could go either way. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Bethlehem wins on points but Trabuco has a decently lower team average.
The problem for Trabuco is thier 1-2 could be a full minute faster than bethlehems pack but in actual team scoring numbers that would still look like the two Trabuco girls in the top 4 and the Bethlehem pack going 15-20. Whereas the Bethlehem pack could be a minute in front of Trabuco’s 5 and she places around 90+.
Obviously these are estimations. If either team has a good day, they will take it.
My very debatable girls NXN predictions (and rankings):
1. Mtn Vista - Loaded. Dominant. Unbeatable.
...Every other team is battling for 2nd. Teams that get this week off of racing and get to do some mud training (at altitude) for NXN will probably prevail, per usual.
2. Trabuco Hills - peaking and healthy at the perfect time. Dominant at CIF Regionals.
3. Buchanan - young and loaded with talent.
4. Flower Mound - Woodbridge wasn't their best. They're prepped for NXN.
5. Bethlehem - pack-runners with no low stick. Maybe overrated, but they're solid.
6. Santiago Corona - Outstanding Top 2. 3-9 are interchangable.
7. Air Academy - lost a lot of girls, rebuilt and is peaking on schedule.
8. J Serra - super deep, similar to Bethlehem. Would be top 3 if their #1 hadn't transferred.
9. Lone Peak - Not as good as years past, but would still win most regions.
10. Wayzata/Romeo - Balanced and deep, but racing in weak, cold regions
Ive got Bethlehem over Trabuco but it could go either way. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Bethlehem wins on points but Trabuco has a decently lower team average.
The problem for Trabuco is thier 1-2 could be a full minute faster than bethlehems pack but in actual team scoring numbers that would still look like the two Trabuco girls in the top 4 and the Bethlehem pack going 15-20. Whereas the Bethlehem pack could be a minute in front of Trabuco’s 5 and she places around 90+.
Obviously these are estimations. If either team has a good day, they will take it.
My very debatable girls NXN predictions (and rankings):
1. Mtn Vista - Loaded. Dominant. Unbeatable.
...Every other team is battling for 2nd. Teams that get this week off of racing and get to do some mud training (at altitude) for NXN will probably prevail, per usual.
2. Trabuco Hills - peaking and healthy at the perfect time. Dominant at CIF Regionals.
3. Buchanan - young and loaded with talent.
4. Flower Mound - Woodbridge wasn't their best. They're prepped for NXN.
5. Bethlehem - pack-runners with no low stick. Maybe overrated, but they're solid.
6. Santiago Corona - Outstanding Top 2. 3-9 are interchangable.
7. Air Academy - lost a lot of girls, rebuilt and is peaking on schedule.
8. J Serra - super deep, similar to Bethlehem. Would be top 3 if their #1 hadn't transferred.
9. Lone Peak - Not as good as years past, but would still win most regions.
10. Wayzata/Romeo - Balanced and deep, but racing in weak, cold regions
My very debatable girls NXN predictions (and rankings):
1. Mtn Vista - Loaded. Dominant. Unbeatable.
...Every other team is battling for 2nd. Teams that get this week off of racing and get to do some mud training (at altitude) for NXN will probably prevail, per usual.
2. Trabuco Hills - peaking and healthy at the perfect time. Dominant at CIF Regionals.
3. Buchanan - young and loaded with talent.
4. Flower Mound - Woodbridge wasn't their best. They're prepped for NXN.
5. Bethlehem - pack-runners with no low stick. Maybe overrated, but they're solid.
6. Santiago Corona - Outstanding Top 2. 3-9 are interchangable.
7. Air Academy - lost a lot of girls, rebuilt and is peaking on schedule.
8. J Serra - super deep, similar to Bethlehem. Would be top 3 if their #1 hadn't transferred.
9. Lone Peak - Not as good as years past, but would still win most regions.
10. Wayzata/Romeo - Balanced and deep, but racing in weak, cold regions
So who are the wild cards in this scenario?
The only top 10 Girls teams dependent on At-larges here would be Santiago and J Serra, assuming Trabuco and Buchanan get the Cali automatics. Lone Peak complicates things because they finished a distant 4th at NXR behind Fossil Ridge, who probably didn’t make a strong enough case to get the invite… but both of those altitude teams would probably perform very well at NXN if they get the invite. Not quite sure who gets the other at-larges.
The only top 10 Girls teams dependent on At-larges here would be Santiago and J Serra, assuming Trabuco and Buchanan get the Cali automatics. Lone Peak complicates things because they finished a distant 4th at NXR behind Fossil Ridge, who probably didn’t make a strong enough case to get the invite… but both of those altitude teams would probably perform very well at NXN if they get the invite. Not quite sure who gets the other at-larges.
Timberline girls finished a narrow 3rd at NXR and beat J Serra earlier this year at Firman. Wouldn’t be shocked to see them get an at large.
Timberline girls finished a narrow 3rd at NXR and beat J Serra earlier this year at Firman. Wouldn’t be shocked to see them get an at large.
HUGE reach there.
Can’t even think about using Firman against JSerra, or to support a mediocre Timberline team. J Serra only sent 5 girls up there and their top girl (CIF Champ) wasn’t one of them. Timberline finished 6th place at a weak race this year with nobody on that team finishing under 19:00.
But also has a win over Rocky Mountain, and had 4 girls break 19 at state and then 3 break 19 with a 4th at 19:04. Boise was 2nd at Firman and they easily handled them at their district and state meets. They were a much better team at the end of the year than they were at Firman, which didn’t look like a great day considering they lost to Boise and Rocky by a ton, and they beat those teams the week before.
They won Nike Twilight, have a win over an AQ and have a win over JSerra when they also clearly had a bad day. Don’t be shocked if they get a spot.
And, at NXN, appears we will finally get that matchup which has been brewing for years: healthy & fit Hedengren vs healthy & fit Englehardt.
Holly Barker has entered the conversation. She bested Blade by 10secs this past weekend at Mt. Sac, while Sadie was only 7secs ahead of Blade at the Clovis Invite.
However, yet again Barker will be going toe-to-toe against Blade at Woodward Park one week out from NXN. That is your “equalizer”.
And, at NXN, appears we will finally get that matchup which has been brewing for years: healthy & fit Hedengren vs healthy & fit Englehardt.
Holly Barker has entered the conversation. She bested Blade by 10secs this past weekend at Mt. Sac, while Sadie was only 7secs ahead of Blade at the Clovis Invite.
However, yet again Barker will be going toe-to-toe against Blade at Woodward Park one week out from NXN. That is your “equalizer”.
Holly Barker has been running much better recently than she was earlier in the season but she still isn't at the level of Englehardt and Hedengren.
Holly Barker has entered the conversation. She bested Blade by 10secs this past weekend at Mt. Sac, while Sadie was only 7secs ahead of Blade at the Clovis Invite.
However, yet again Barker will be going toe-to-toe against Blade at Woodward Park one week out from NXN. That is your “equalizer”.
Holly Barker has been running much better recently than she was earlier in the season but she still isn't at the level of Englehardt and Hedengren.
Good call not dismissing Barker, as she's starting to roll. If you look at last year's NXN California performances, here is what you get, so not sure why we're talking about Englehardt or Blade on a course like NXN. Perhaps suits a runner like Barker as the second highest returner from CA -
7th - Jaelyn Williams (Injured)
12th - Holly Barker (16:41 at Woodbridge, won CIF SS)
24th - Hanne Thomsen (15:40 at Woodbridge, CIF North Win)
26th - Sadie Englehardt (15:40 at Woodbridge, won CIF SS)
53rd - Sophie Polay (won CIF SS)
68th - Molly Sundgren (11th at Clovis)
76th - Riley Blade (15:20 at Woodbridge; 3rd at CIF SS)
But also has a win over Rocky Mountain, and had 4 girls break 19 at state and then 3 break 19 with a 4th at 19:04. Boise was 2nd at Firman and they easily handled them at their district and state meets. They were a much better team at the end of the year than they were at Firman, which didn’t look like a great day considering they lost to Boise and Rocky by a ton, and they beat those teams the week before.
They won Nike Twilight, have a win over an AQ and have a win over JSerra when they also clearly had a bad day. Don’t be shocked if they get a spot.
I admire the effort, but you are beggin'. T'Line got beat by 88 points at NXR and lost 36-78 at IHSAA. They scored 100+ at Twighlight with no competition. Lincoln beat T'Line at NXR and even they know they don't have a shot at NXN. No chance an at-large comes out of the NW, especially not them. They have a couple freshmean girls and are only losing 1 Senior, so I'm sure they'll be solid next year... but sorry, in 2024 it's time for them to get ready for track.
But also has a win over Rocky Mountain, and had 4 girls break 19 at state and then 3 break 19 with a 4th at 19:04. Boise was 2nd at Firman and they easily handled them at their district and state meets. They were a much better team at the end of the year than they were at Firman, which didn’t look like a great day considering they lost to Boise and Rocky by a ton, and they beat those teams the week before.
They won Nike Twilight, have a win over an AQ and have a win over JSerra when they also clearly had a bad day. Don’t be shocked if they get a spot.
I admire the effort, but you are beggin'. T'Line got beat by 88 points at NXR and lost 36-78 at IHSAA. They scored 100+ at Twighlight with no competition. Lincoln beat T'Line at NXR and even they know they don't have a shot at NXN. No chance an at-large comes out of the NW, especially not them. They have a couple freshmean girls and are only losing 1 Senior, so I'm sure they'll be solid next year... but sorry, in 2024 it's time for them to get ready for track.
Who are the at-large favorites?
I know NXR SW will get two, but I'm admittedly unfamiliar with the other regions.
I know NXR SW will get two, but I'm admittedly unfamiliar with the other regions.
Please read the previous posts about it.
SW may end up getting 2 (Fossil Ridge and Lone Peak) but they shouldn't get theirs until AFTER Cali gets their 2 at-larges.
There should definitely be 4 Cali teams there this year, in one of the most talented, deep and competitive XC seasons of all time. It would be a travesty if Trabuco, Buchanan, Santiago and J Serra weren't all there, as this is probably the best team ever for each of those teams, and all but Trabuco were there last year - and they're definitely going this year.
Jaelyn Williams ran in her section finals and won, so she’s off the injured list
Jaelyn Williams is not currently injured but she is still working her way back into shape after being injured for a while. Qualifying for NXN this year will be challenging for her. Hopefully she has a good race on Saturday.
I know NXR SW will get two, but I'm admittedly unfamiliar with the other regions.
Please read the previous posts about it.
SW may end up getting 2 (Fossil Ridge and Lone Peak) but they shouldn't get theirs until AFTER Cali gets their 2 at-larges.
There should definitely be 4 Cali teams there this year, in one of the most talented, deep and competitive XC seasons of all time. It would be a travesty if Trabuco, Buchanan, Santiago and J Serra weren't all there, as this is probably the best team ever for each of those teams, and all but Trabuco were there last year - and they're definitely going this year.
California is a good region. If I had to rank the top 16 girl’s teams nationally (it’s a little tough to rank the CA based on sectional meets because it is tough to determine who was running hard and who wasn’t), it would look something like this:
SW may end up getting 2 (Fossil Ridge and Lone Peak) but they shouldn't get theirs until AFTER Cali gets their 2 at-larges.
There should definitely be 4 Cali teams there this year, in one of the most talented, deep and competitive XC seasons of all time. It would be a travesty if Trabuco, Buchanan, Santiago and J Serra weren't all there, as this is probably the best team ever for each of those teams, and all but Trabuco were there last year - and they're definitely going this year.
California is a good region. If I had to rank the top 16 girl’s teams nationally (it’s a little tough to rank the CA based on sectional meets because it is tough to determine who was running hard and who wasn’t), it would look something like this:
1. Mountain Vista
2. Flower Mound
3. Ventura
4. Air Academy
5. Bethlehem
6. Fossil Ridge
7. Santiago Cordova
8. Cardinal Gibbons
9. Lone Peak
10. Wayzata
11. Buchanan
12. Chaparral
13. Niwot
14. Timpview
15. J Serra
16. Trabuco Hills
And to think .. Chaparral and Niwot don't even get to go.
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.