Official Idaho HS XC 2023 Thread

I think Ringert has the 6th best speed rating in the NW so far, but I would expect him to move down a lot after the Oregon and Washington state meets this weekend. Not a ton of races in those states get speed rated so I expect more high scores to appear.

Nathan Neil should be considered a lock and there are 7 other non-Idaho guys who have run a sub 9:02 3200. Three from Idaho in the top 5 is a stretch.

I know I predicted 7 Idaho boys to be top 20, but lately 5 seems to be the high end. It’s a numbers game and Idaho is just a smaller state.

I'm responding to the post that says three boys under 15. The post sounded to me like it they meant 3 Idaho boys.

I'm guessing that Heemeyer and Stadtlander run on top of 15 minutes if the footing is good. I think Ringert could run in the 15:15 range, as well as Athay, Helder, and Stockett. Those guys all have pretty good shots of being top 20.

I feel like Sheesley, Lucas, Cervi-Skinner, May, Kemper, and King could also all threaten top 20.

I highly doubt that. I think only the winner goes sub 15, with the winner (Neil or Heemeyer most likely, although Stadtlander, the mercer island kid, and a couple others will be in the mix as well) running ~14:54. Second place at 15:02.

Heemeyer and Stadtlander both get top 8. No other Idaho kids in the top 12. Ringert and either Stockett, Skinner, or another dark horse CDA kid get top 20 for 4 Idaho kids.

One Idaho team gets an auto on the boys side, taking 2nd. Another gets 3rd and Rich Gonzalez flips a coin to see if he should screw them over or not.

I think andrew ringert has a breakout race and potentially finds himself in the top 8 and yes i think he goes under 15 i think this will be a relatively quick race

Wouldn't count out Athay either (if he runs). Just went 15:38 while frontrunning the entire 4a state race(and running almost half of it completely by himself). Obviously has the talent and seems to be peaking and showing a really solid return to form at the end of his season

I completly think athay could be up there with ringert or in the top 10ish he just really hasnt made a huge statement post injury and im waiting to see that be made

speed scores, where is the CDA season breakdown. Tired of hitting refresh.

He had the largest in season speed rating improvement at state and is still very undertrained compared to most elite runners. Unless actually running during the 16 months before the XC season starts doesn’t matter.

If his district race was speed rated, maybe not. Even so, Helder had 10 points and Athay had 11. Not exactly a huge difference.

Helders 175 from Cardinal Classic wasn’t speed rated accurately…his time on that course should have easily received 180ish.

lol. I've been slammed at work so taking the 20 minutes to pull these together has been way down on my priority list.

M. Cervi-Skinner- 177/179/180/179/182/182
May- 171/166/173/180/184/174
King- 176/175/180/176/176/178
Reitze- 150 (JV)/162/173/165/170/174
Z. Cervi-Skinner- 171/170/168/164/168/171
Rohlinger- 162/162/158/159/161/164
Carr- 167/165/170/169/173/165

Average improvement from start of season to state: +4.85 (+3.14 if going from Reitze's first varsity race)
Average improvement from start of season to season's best: +7.71 (+6 same thing ^)
Removing the highest and lowest performance and averaging each runner's middle scores:
M Cervi-Skinner: 180 May: 174.5 King: 176.5 Reitze: 167.5 (169.33 if excluding JV meet) Z Cervi-Skinner: 169.25 Rohlinger: 161 Carr: 167.75
Average improvement from start of season to average score: +3.57 (+3.42 if excluding Reitze's first meet)

Current order of improvement from first meet to districts:
Eagle: +10.28
Mountain View: +6.85
Rocky: +2.71 (+.85 if you go from Tuft's first varsity race)
Boise: +.57

CDA: N/A

Current order of improvement from first meet to state:
Eagle: +12.42
Mountain View:+8
Boise: +7.28
CDA: +4.85 (+3.14 if including only varsity races)
Rocky: +4 (+1.71 same thing)

Current order of improvement from first meet to average:
Eagle: +8.71
Mountain View: +5.5
CDA: +3.57 (+3.42 if including only varsity races)
Boise: +2.71
Rocky: +2.42 (+1.71 same thing)

I would be curious to see how Rocky would fair 15 runners deep and if that number holds up. They have so many quality guys that more data points of guys that were fringe varsity guys probably paints the picture more.

But, when including only varsity races, being at ~50% and 63% of other teams is statistically significant.

There is a component where more talented and fit runners will see a smaller gain over the course of a season, so I would expect to see teams like CDA, Boise, and Rocky see smaller improvements, however, Boise saw a lot of gain in their top 3 guys where Rocky didn’t. Excluding the highs and lows punishes the teams that had big days at state. I’d be curious to see the averages with those, with the first meet excluded, and Firman onwards. Also with the average exempting district and state performance vs those. Who was better in the regular season vs. championship? It’s almost like we have two different seasons between regular season and championship.

Also, isn’t Eagle’s coach a first year coach? I don’t know that I would attribute the gains over the season to much more than they probably realized they were messing up and changed things in the training quickly or they didn’t do a good job prepping the kids over the summer.

It’s easy to mess up a progression if it’s your first season writing it. If it was unintentional and they changed things, kudos to them for recognizing something wasn’t right. Unless someone knows that they were following their original progression exactly, the most likely scenario is that something wasn’t right early. If they do the same thing next year it’s a different conversation. The boys raced better at the end of the season and the girls melted down at the end, barely qualifying for state and then taking 9th.

Who were the first and second year head coaches in the state this year?

Just message Hampton on instagram. I asked him some questions a while back and he answered with a lot of detail.

Who does rocky bring back next year and how do they stack up to cda or will boise be the next closest to being the best in idaho for boys?

It has to be Rocky. Boise graduates a ton. Mt View returns a decent amount but everyone else is losing a good chunk.

Who do you think will be on varsity or like top ten for boise and rocky next year and will it be enough to stop Cda or do they just have way to much depth and talent with all the freshman that came in this year like carr and others.

State next year should be a Rocky CDA duel meet (mostly, theres always room for dark horses so far out)

I think Rocky will have the slight edge. CDA's freshman are running fast times, but all their meets have either been short or on fast courses. Also the 2 mile marks for rockys sophomore and freshman classes were really legit.

CDA will have a pretty significant advantage on returning speed ratings.

They lose May and King, but return guys that have run 182, 174, 173, 171, and 164 marks.

Rocky returns 180, 173, 166, 164, 159.

Mt. View returns 170, 165, 161, 157 and then a few low 150's guys I believe

Boise returns 183, 171, 164, 160. I'd have to peak back at what their 5th returner is.

Rocky has a ton of depth, and so does CDA. Boise has an excellent amount of depth as well.

As far as what speed ratings say, these are by far the top 4 teams in 5A next year.

After that, I think the next grouping of teams would be Timberline, Highland, and Centennial.

Right now, the fringe qualifying teams in 5A District III based on returners would be Eagle, Meridian, and Capital. Capital appears to be the next best team in 5A.

If I had to guess, the qualifying teams out of District III would be Rocky, Boise, Mountain View, Timberline, Centennial, Capital, and then a toss up between Meridian and Eagle in that order.