Let's talk Ohio HS XC

Do you give props to private schools who can leach kids from other distrcits? Ethan Cope ran for Perrysburg Middle School a few years back. Maybe some of their other runners did too?

Brebeuf Jesuit prep IN has a student population in the 700s or 800s.

and last year they were top 2 in the Midwest. They had a solid 1-6 but not much depth beyond that.

4 of those guys returned and a really good freshman closing the gap on their 5th now

Distance running is part of the culture at Mason and in the community. They start young and have a summer track club for the little kids. It is based more on having fun. The kids meet a few times a week in the summer to "train" and there are a few meets. Again, emphasis is on fun. Not only does Mason's size help, it is the whole attitude about the sport in the community and the effort to get kids interested in it at an early age. The community supports the teams.

I was curious to see if your remembrance of them not having a good boys team at the state level was accurate so I looked at some relatively recent results (over the last 10 years).

2014 the East boys were 5th at the state meet, 2015 they were 5th at the Troy regional and missed the state meet by 1 spot. IN 2016 East was 15th. The girls have had a bit more success. 2014 13th at state meet. 2017 10th. 2018 5th. 2019 2nd. 2020 9th.

Before Lakota divided up into East & West, it was just Lakota. I believe that the school also had some success at the state level at that time. If East & West were one school, it would be bigger than Mason. Mason could probably have two high schools and some believe that it is too large as is. There are communities around state that have more high schools than Mason does and still don't have as many students in those schools than Mason has in one school.

Lakota East and/or West should be represented at the state level nearly every year. The demographics of the Lakota school district are realtively similar to that of Mason. Lakota asl has good coaches. It really comes down to it not being as well-supported in the community and not as much of a part of the culture.

Hello, Tommy Rice or parent of Tommy Rice…

Actually this is probably a JV teammate or some other immature runner familiar with Tommy Rice. No chance it's Tommy Rice or a parent of his. No chance.

I think that he is clearly the favorite and should win the 2022 State XC race based on his results this season BUT...

I think that there is A LOT of pressure on him to win and exercise some demons of being the runner-up to many times in his HS career (XC/Indoor/Outdoor). That does funny things on a high school runner much less college and Olympians.

I can see him:

1) going out too fast and the pack (Sam, Tommy, Liam, Ben) works together to reel him in the last 800m or
2) goes out at an appropriate pace and with a mile to go he has people around him and he begins to tighten up because A) he's not use to it, B) he remembers past XC/Track Championship Races and someone else running away from him, he stresses and tightens up.
3) his coach reads this and they plan accordingly and he wins!
(I don't know him, have anything against him but simply an observation of what might happen in the race)

Is it becoming clearer to any of you as who is #2 behind mason?

I don’t think we learned anything about Mas. Jackson, Tol. St. Francis, or St. Xavier last week.

I think we saw that Lancaster is probably better than Hil. Davidson, but it’s pretty close. And obviously Hil. Davidson beat Dub. Coffman, but that was close as well.

I’m not really sure we’re going to learn anything this week either. Plus, you have to now factor in that not every team is going to race all out 100% at both Conference and District if they can win easily without a max effort or full roster.

I actually think we will learn a lot in Central OH. When all of D1 Region 3 races at Hilliard Darby this Saturday, you'll be able to have a fair, recent comp of times. I don't see any teams in those district sections with the luxury of taking a week off, not giving "max effort", etc.

Orange-PickN-Coffman-HD-Desales-Kilbourne-WestervilleN-Lancaster-Jerome

Only five will advance out of Pickerington next week. We'll get a good idea who those teams will be this Saturday.

All of those teams are not racing each other in the same race. They are divided into 3 races, with the teams being seeded. Lancaster, Davidson, and Coffman are all seeded top 3 so they are in the 3 different races. Same goes with the next 3. All of those teams you listed will qualify to regionals.

District 1 - Jerome, Lancaster, West. North

District 2 - Davidson, Pick. North, DeSales

District 3 - Coffman, Orange, Kilbourne

Yeah, I know they're not all in the same race. C'mon. Read my post. What's significant is all 3 district sections are running on the same course. So we'll be able to compare times - the 1st time we have a legit, recent comp. In fact, you'll be able to score a combined meet if you so choose & get a nice glimpse into that regional race at PickN in two weeks.

That is a fair point. Same course, same day, etc. Same with Mason and St. X at VOA.

But like I mentioned, I doubt all of the top teams are racing 100% efforts or 100% rosters. I don't think anyone is making the same mistake as the Centerville Girls did a few years back, but still.

Your point is taken as well. I do think SOME teams (Mason?) have the luxury of maybe sitting someone out or planning a more conservative race strategy, but I don't think that applies to any D1 boys teams in Central OH where I'm a fan.

If any of these teams hold someone out or race poorly they can be beaten by a team like Gahanna, Dubin Scioto, Marysville, Westerville Central, etc. Since only 5 teams qualify, I don't think coaches here will take that chance. Esp knowing what happened to Centerville girls. It's just too close.

Good point. But for example, I am confident that Hil. Davidson and Dub. Coffman could have their top guys (espcially Ackley) dial it back and still place essentially the same as if they were racing all out.

All that to say, I don't think we are going to learn very much unless we see somebody who wasn't on the radar run incredible.

Agreed with Ackley. Not so much with Coffman. If Liam S or any of the top Coffman guys hold back, they'll get their a** handed to them by Kilbourne's Smith and Miller (15:30s the past two weeks) or Orange's Radruraju (16th at last year's state meet). Heck, it might happen anyway with these guys, and their teams are really close.

I don't think Coffman will want to limp into regionals, even if they could. As I said before, it's pretty wide open at Pick N and if you're off just a little, you won't make it.

Ask last year's Olentangy Orange team, who rolled into regionals with 5 under 16:00 and got bounced.

1. Lancaster

2. HD

3. Coffman

Those 3 might as well be locks, assuming the unthinkable doesn't happen. That leaves 6 teams for 2 spots. I personally would list them like this:

Less Likely - Jerome, WN, Desales

While Jerome has been trending in the right direction as of late, they still are not a crazy strong team. Ricchiuti and Razor have looked solid, but they will need to tighten up their 3-5 if they want a chance. Sure, a couple of their runners have dipped into the mid 16s once or twice, but I'm not sure what they showed at OCCs will be enough. Westerville North has a similar case, they have shown that they are capable of a States run, but they have been trending backwards as of late. 7th at Berlin behind many of these other teams, and then an OCC loss to Kilbourne, whom they beat by 20 points at their home meet. Gabelman and Bracken are both solid front runners, but he gap between their 2 and 3 was over a minute at OCCs. Yes, they have like 8 runners in that 17-17:25 range, but 3 scorers in that range at Regionals will not be enough this year. And as for Desales, they certainly have a lot of depth in the 16s and have shown good performances, but with no realistic runners finishing in the top 25-30, and the lack of D1 regional experience, I see this team packing most of it's scorers in the 40-60 range. It's possible for them to do better, but I don't see them beating 5 out of these 6 teams.

More Likely - PickN, Kilbourne, Orange

PickN has shown up as of late in a big way. Back to back wins at Eisenhart and OCCs, this team deserves the praise. By no means are they a lock, the times they put up at Eisenhart were magical, but they seemed a bit back down to earth at their OCC race. If their top 3 can find consistency around that 16-16:15 range(which they have yet to find), and their 4-5 find themselves at 17 minutes or under, it will be tough for this team to be knocked out. Kilbourne is in a similar situation. Had it not been for one of their runners dropping out, they would have finished right behind PickN at Eisenhart. And a week later they beat WN on a sub par day for some of their runners. Their inconsistency has hurt them at times this season, but they are starting to preform when it matters. Smith and Miller are solid top 10 runners, and their 3rd has also shown solid performances under 16:15 this season. If their 4-5 can put themselves around that 17 minute and under bubble, Kilbourne will be competing closely for a state spot. And lastly Orange. I struggle to understand this team. Rudraraju as battled injury and hasn't quite been able to keep pace with other top regional runners, and Giacomelli who qualified for states individually last year has seemingly fallen off a cliff, but sophomore Schroff has been coming up big this season as a solid #2 runner, and runners Woolard and Allender have been running in the mid 16s fairly often. I was doubtful of this team for a while because of the uncertainly of some of their runners and that their 5th runner seems weak compared to some other teams, but they just beat 4/6 teams I'm discussing at Berlin. So they have to be a solid contender right? Idk.

I'd like to hear some thoughts from other central Ohioans, this regional meet is going to be wild.

Anyone know if Neuberger will be racing with Mason’s top 7 at state and NXR?

he seems way far from that based on everyone else’s times but going from #1 nonsenior last year to jv this year can hurt a team a lot if they wanna go to nxn. I think they should still win state without him

No one knows this, not even Mason at this point. I'm sure they hope so but they don't know for sure.