Down goes the Dow

I would do it incrementally, but that's just me.

My reservation is that each of these has already booked some serious appreciation.

My hunch is that Apple is perhaps the safest bet and Tesla offers the opportunity for a bigger run-up, and I say that based on the way they have been trading in the last few months. Nvidia could make some big moves up as well but all the AI hype may have run its course, and it does seem to be topping off as of late.

Microsoft is a real powerhouse with a wide range of income streams. I would say that one is the gem in disguise.

Seattle - they were saying they had already booked serious appreciation YEARS AGO. And they just keep going up and keep going up and keep going up.

yes, precisely, and that is why i say buy incrementally, systematically.

If you saw an attractive entry point, I would say that that would be an opportunity to take a bigger stake.

I have a lot of these already, so I buy incrementally more. But if I didn't, maybe open a holding with a larger exposure, and I could see that. But I would be careful that you don't make the mistake of putting the whole thing in at what might be a top. This is esp. true of Nvidia and Tesla.

This is just how I would approach it, sharing my thinking here. I like building positions over time based on how sure I am about a particular investment.

One thing to watch is how each performs on a pullback. That tells you a lot. Is there support? Are there a lot of interest looking for an entry point?

Given that, I would feel a lot more comfortable with Apple and Microsoft, of that group.

Junk bonds have a terrible reputation. But junk bond funds - different story. You have a number of duds but have some really, really great junk bonds. I am not even sure that is a good comparison but these 6 or 7 or 8 stocks - some might do okay in the next decade, some be not so great, and some will be really great. I am willing to take a chance that a number of them will continue to do great. Besides, if they stink, that means the market as a whole stinks too.

You can't time the market. The market (so far) has always gone up. Put your money in and let it ride.

Funny you should say that because I was going to suggest you look at a tech ETF. I like XLK. And i was just checking performance over various timeframes against Apple and Microsoft and they are very close.

I feel confident about any of those, but tesla and Nvidia are riskier. Amazon and Google have been rebounding lately but have kind of lagged, in different ways.

Suit yourself. But do realize that Microsoft, for instance experienced a downturn in the last 18 months of approximate 36%. And it happened in a matter of months. Others in your list also had big downturns.

Are you going to weather that or dump for a loss? Only you can answer that.

And if there is a downturn, it's nice to have some powder dry to put into the market and use it to your benefit.

Ultimately, pay attention to your strategies and what works for you, and learn from your mistakes.

You might be better off buying over priced Kevin O‘Leary QVC wine than trading overvalued index funds for the ten stocks driving the overvalued index funds.

You and Flagpole with both be tech heavy. 😁

MSFT was at $106 5 years ago. Now it is at $335. Sure it had a downturn 17 months ago but has rebounded nicely. MSFT when went public was at 0.05 cents. It is at $335. Put on these 6 or 7 stocks and let it ride.

Two years ago Kevin O’Leary’s QVC wine was $12 a bottle, and now it is $18. So, so what?

It's worked well for me.

I mean, not like beating the Dow 34 of the last 32 years or anything like that, but you know, well enough.

Analysts aren't always wrong. This one at Stifel pretty much nailed the SP500. ALthough he said we'd be led by cyclicals...when it was tech that led the surge.

Seth Golden
@SethCL
STIFEL’S Barry Bannister:
“Our view is that in the next 6 months inflation cools & a recession is delayed to 3Q 2023, lifting the S&P 500 to 4300 while favoring Cyclicals”

6:59 AM · Oct 26, 2022

It's hard to be a contrarian. I can't do it, certainly.

A year ago both stocks and bonds were sitting low, after among the worst first six months in modern history. BOTH stocks and bonds.

Those who were able to courageously buy at that point did well for themselves. As Sally often says, after a very bad year it's probably safe to get back in the water.

Tech +32%

SP500 +17%

Bonds +1%

Global 60/40 +8%

7/1/2022:

Accelerating inflation and rising interest rates fueled a monthslong rout that left few markets unscathed. The S&P 500 fell 21% through Thursday, suffering its worst first half of a year since 1970, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Investment-grade bonds, as measured by the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond exchange-traded fund, lost 11%—posting their worst start to a year in history. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 15%.

wsj.com

Stock Markets Post Worst First Half of a Year in Over Five Decades

Akane Otani

Stocks, bonds and crypto all tumbled in the first six months of the year, with commodities markets including oil about the only place that didn’t lose ground.

Link:www.wsj.com/articles/markets-head-towa...

I believe in you

A thrift store going public tells the true state of things.

You're trying to beat the market. I wish you all the best, but it's probably not gonna work out for you.

The “new” bull market:

Here's a fun one. Literally AT THE BOTTOM on October 10. Almost to the very day and minute of that bottom, none other than Jaime Diamond says stocks might have another 20% to fall and we'd be in a recession in mid 2023. Stocks have risen strongly from that point and there is no sign of recession. There are no wizards. We're all blind and feeling around the elephant in the dark.

WSJ:

Jamie Dimon said he thinks the U.S. is heading for recession in the middle of next year and that stocks have much further to fall.
The JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO has for months been warning that booming consumer spending would collide with Federal Reserve rate hikes to throw the economy for a loop. The war in Ukraine, he has said, only adds to the uncertainty.
“These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,” Mr. Dimon said in a CNBC interview Monday.
The S&P 500, he said, could fall another 20%. Still, the bank’s customers are still spending and borrowing at a healthy clip, he said, defying recession fears.

wsj.com

Jamie Dimon Sees U.S. Recession in 6 to 9 Months

Jamie Dimon said he thinks the U.S. is heading for recession in the middle of next year and that stocks have much further to fall. The JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO has for months been warning that [booming consumer spending would...

Link:www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-...