Down goes the Dow

ryan foreman wrote:

Yes, but unemployment rate is low (at least by the metrics of what they look at). The Fed has been preparing the markets to expect rate rises for months. And from what I read, lots of economists are advocating rate hikes.

Actually, if the Fed doesn't raise rates I bet the reason would be to help emerging markets. It sounds like there is a serious issue of investment being pulled out of those markets and being put into U.S. treasuries. Raising rates only encourages that flight.

Big Dog Investments wrote:

Given that inflation is essentially nonexistent, if not negative, I don't see the Fed raising rates in September.

The unemployment "metrics" they look at are fraudulent and insulting to your intelligence.

By analogy, those "long term unemployed" during the great depression, would not have counted statistically.

Their methodology for "unemployment rate" is total Republican cooked up BS to fool you the public.

If you want to go down that road as to how they come up with statistics then I have a lot of opinions on the matter. But I think inflation metrics are even worst when it comes to the fed because inflation is really what the fed should be worried about. Its arguably the only thing they should be worried about. If we measured inflation like we did in the 70s I think you would see we have an inflation rate about what we had in the 70s. Not the near zero inflation rate we report now. In any case I'm just speaking to what the fed DOES look at, not what they should.

metrics, lies, damm lies stats wrote:

The unemployment "metrics" they look at are fraudulent and insulting to your intelligence.

By analogy, those "long term unemployed" during the great depression, would not have counted statistically.

Their methodology for "unemployment rate" is total Republican cooked up BS to fool you the public.

The Usual wrote:

Hello Again wrote:

And again, K5.

Thanks for the insightful explanation as to why markets will always go up given a sufficient time period. Just as I have come to expect.

Hey K5. Are you really that simple?

Why do you think that people go into business?

FUTURES Index Close 16459.75

Cur Future 16081.0

Change -386.00

FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-35.25) Fair Val Close 16431.75

Cur Future 16081.0

Change -350.75

Last Updated: Mon, 24 Aug '15 | 12:14 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeU34lyPvbQ

Black Monday wrote:

FUTURES Index Close 16459.75

Cur Future 16081.0

Change -386.00

FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-35.25) Fair Val Close 16431.75

Cur Future 16081.0

Change -350.75

Last Updated: Mon, 24 Aug \'15 | 12:14 AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeU34lyPvbQ

And this is not even a crash. Just wait.

starting to look like panic - this is going to be 9 or 10% down in 5 or 6 trading days - I wonder how rare that is historically.

This is going to be very entertaining to watch in about 45 minutes.

Bwack Monday!

"even after last week's washout, the US stock market is 25.2% higher than when K5 (pbuh), started the thread."

LMAO, care to revise?

15,405

That's 15.4k, not 16.4k

Now THIS looks promising, finally.

Darn it, back up to 15.9k

What a day this has been already. I find it tremendous fun, like watching a 6.5-hour movie play out, with a bit of a lull during lunch.

Took my phone off the hook. People expect me to know what to say. I told them everything I needed to tell them more than a year ago, at the close of 2014. Now they expect crisis management advice.

lol, I should start selling them gold

Friday was unusual as the Dow dropped nearly a hundred points over the last half hour of trading. Usually when Friday is a down day, short traders cover their positions before the weekend. That didn't happen Friday, so I was expecting a lower open today, but I wasn't expecting this.

There is a precedent. A similar drop occured in 1987. It was a scary day and I was glad I wasn't working directly with customers then. The phones were ringing off the hook all day.

This was triggered in part by events in foreign markets.

The sham is starting to unravel most in China, where the sham is perhaps the most egregious.

Lots of money being made. An a-hole friend of mine made a killing on open today.

I'm spending my day researching dividend stocks, and getting ready to travel.

anyone remember August 8, 2011?

anyone?

the SP500 fell 6.7% in one day - far worse than we've seen in this drop.

It took a few months to recoup but the market rose c. 50% from there.

I won't tell you what caused the fall, just to emphasize the point that these things come and go and doing nothing is usually the right play.

one more bit of perspective - the vix appears to be around 50 right now. the last time it was this high was in oct 2008. I don't have to tell you what was going on then. Is this moment as bad as the global financial system collapsing?

I just put the last bit of my cash to work in US stocks.

agip wrote:

one more bit of perspective - the vix appears to be around 50 right now. the last time it was this high was in oct 2008. I don't have to tell you what was going on then. Is this moment as bad as the global financial system collapsing?

I just put the last bit of my cash to work in US stocks.

Are you parroting that VIX information, or do you have handy access to the long-term VIX chart?

If you have a chart, I'd be curious to know what the VIX did between late 2007 and Oct 2008. When did it first spike over, say 30, during that time period, and how many times?

The "last bit of cash"?

I don't think that even Flagpole would countenance that, agip.

The best move is probably to do nothing? IDK about that, but I do know that I will be traveling for a while, and strangely, that puts my mind at ease because I won't be focused on doing any buying.

I don't think this market is anywhere near "settling at a bottom".

In fact, I just looked again. Down only around 450 now.

Yes, anything can still happen.

Go back further wrote:

agip wrote:

one more bit of perspective - the vix appears to be around 50 right now. the last time it was this high was in oct 2008. I don't have to tell you what was going on then. Is this moment as bad as the global financial system collapsing?

I just put the last bit of my cash to work in US stocks.

Are you parroting that VIX information, or do you have handy access to the long-term VIX chart?

If you have a chart, I'd be curious to know what the VIX did between late 2007 and Oct 2008. When did it first spike over, say 30, during that time period, and how many times?

{"showSma":true,"smaColors":"#cc0000","smaPeriods":"200","smaWidths":"1","smaGhosting":"0","range":"10y","allowChartStacking":true}

yahoo finance is not working well today, but from other sites I believe the VIx hit 50 today. Not sure where it is right now.

a caveat is that this is closing prices - the vix was likely far higher intraday than this chart shows.

agip wrote:

one more bit of perspective - the vix appears to be around 50 right now. the last time it was this high was in oct 2008. I don't have to tell you what was going on then. Is this moment as bad as the global financial system collapsing?

I just put the last bit of my cash to work in US stocks.

Oh, and out of curiousity, what'd you buy?

What kind of % of your port did you have in cash & just put to work?

one more caveat - that chart is monthly - I should try to get day by day - I'm sure the vix was higher on some intramonth date. But my main point stands I think - this is way overblown - more like the taper tantrum than 2008.