If the S&P 500 closes above 4,292.44. we officially enter a bull market.
We are flirting with that, currently trading within 2 points of that.
Also, there seems to be a very strong negative sentiment now, which might point to more room to grow if the fears of a recession fail to materialize, or if we experience just a mild slowing instead.
Correction: in the time it took to write this, the S&P has already crossed over the 4,292.44. threshold.
If the S&P 500 closes above 4,292.44. we officially enter a bull market.
We are flirting with that, currently trading within 2 points of that.
Also, there seems to be a very strong negative sentiment now, which might point to more room to grow if the fears of a recession fail to materialize, or if we experience just a mild slowing instead.
Correction: in the time it took to write this, the S&P has already crossed over the 4,292.44. threshold.
Let's see where it closes.
we're less than a percent away from a 52-week-high in the Sp500 too.
If the S&P 500 closes above 4,292.44. we officially enter a bull market.
We are flirting with that, currently trading within 2 points of that.
Also, there seems to be a very strong negative sentiment now, which might point to more room to grow if the fears of a recession fail to materialize, or if we experience just a mild slowing instead.
Correction: in the time it took to write this, the S&P has already crossed over the 4,292.44. threshold.
Let's see where it closes.
we're less than a percent away from a 52-week-high in the Sp500 too.
Cool.
And the Nasdaq is the real thriller. Already set a new 52 week high.
And when you read the analysts' case for why we might be in for further gains in both indices, they site the rosy prospects of AI driving both (read: tech/Nasdaq).
But otherwise, you know, just a "Bear Market rally" and all....
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
correct terminology so as to not kill a joke
we're less than a percent away from a 52-week-high in the Sp500 too.
Cool.
And the Nasdaq is the real thriller. Already set a new 52 week high.
And when you read the analysts' case for why we might be in for further gains in both indices, they site the rosy prospects of AI driving both (read: tech/Nasdaq).
But otherwise, you know, just a "Bear Market rally" and all....
And the Nasdaq is the real thriller. Already set a new 52 week high.
And when you read the analysts' case for why we might be in for further gains in both indices, they site the rosy prospects of AI driving both (read: tech/Nasdaq).
But otherwise, you know, just a "Bear Market rally" and all....
And the Nasdaq is the real thriller. Already set a new 52 week high.
And when you read the analysts' case for why we might be in for further gains in both indices, they site the rosy prospects of AI driving both (read: tech/Nasdaq).
But otherwise, you know, just a "Bear Market rally" and all....
Truist Co-Chief Investment Officer Keith Lerner wrote:
The history of bull markets supports Lee's point that everyone should be expecting higher returns in the second half of 2023 if the S&P 500 can tick slightly higher and close above 4,292.44. Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick points out that once stocks gain 20% off their lows — officially entering a bull market — good things happen.
Detrick tracked 13 times stocks bounced up 20% off a 52-week low. In the first thee months stocks were usually choppy, with the benchmark index actually falling 0.5% on average in the first month upon hitting bull market territory.
But in the long run, things have been overly positive. After rallying 20% from market lows, the S&P 500 averaged a 10% return over the next six months and 17.7% over the next 12 months.
More than anything, imo, it comes down to Q3 and Q4 EPS. If Q1 EPS trend is sustainable, then the lows are in.
A couple anecdotal points, my home tax assessed valuation came in 20% lower, but my home insurance went up 10% higher. There is one house for sale in my neighborhood, with the asking price at 2021 valuations. Service companies are shilling for work, door to door, and frequent mailers. Today son purchased a non-callable one year CD at 5.25%.
More than anything, imo, it comes down to Q3 and Q4 EPS. If Q1 EPS trend is sustainable, then the lows are in.
A couple anecdotal points, my home tax assessed valuation came in 20% lower, but my home insurance went up 10% higher. There is one house for sale in my neighborhood, with the asking price at 2021 valuations. Service companies are shilling for work, door to door, and frequent mailers. Today son purchased a non-callable one year CD at 5.25%.
Probably would have been even a lower tax assessed valuation without that premium paint job you pulled off. At least that would mean lower property tax, assuming you have one.
More than anything, imo, it comes down to Q3 and Q4 EPS. If Q1 EPS trend is sustainable, then the lows are in.
A couple anecdotal points, my home tax assessed valuation came in 20% lower, but my home insurance went up 10% higher. There is one house for sale in my neighborhood, with the asking price at 2021 valuations. Service companies are shilling for work, door to door, and frequent mailers. Today son purchased a non-callable one year CD at 5.25%.
Probably would have been even a lower tax assessed valuation without that premium paint job you pulled off. At least that would mean lower property tax, assuming you have one.
We do have a property tax, several components including a home owners exemption on the first $125,000, though ultimately the mil rate of each agency will determine what you pay. I would expect about a 5% decrease this period.
Igy, hey, you mentioned CD rates at 5.25%. As an alternative, I hooked up with one of those High Yield Savings accounts online and they offer nearly as much (5.00% APY) with no-lock up period. I like the freedom of being able to pull the funds out quickly if it proves advantageous. Just a thought, as an alternative.
Also, my brokerage offers some short term- 1 month - CDs at almost as good a rate.
Igy, hey, you mentioned CD rates at 5.25%. As an alternative, I hooked up with one of those High Yield Savings accounts online and they offer nearly as much (5.00% APY) with no-lock up period. I like the freedom of being able to pull the funds out quickly if it proves advantageous. Just a thought, as an alternative.
Also, my brokerage offers some short term- 1 month - CDs at almost as good a rate.
interesting question on rates...
it's weird now because short term rates are higher than long term rates. So why not own just short-term bonds/money market/savings?
Because if there is a recession rates will fall quickly and a mm or savings account is not locked in. Whereas an intermediate term or long term bond rate is locked in.
Some say we will all feel stupid in a year or two having put all our money in short term bonds if they are yielding say 2% in 2024, and not locking in higher rates when we could. Meaning now. CDs also have the advantage of locking in a rate.
Igy, hey, you mentioned CD rates at 5.25%. As an alternative, I hooked up with one of those High Yield Savings accounts online and they offer nearly as much (5.00% APY) with no-lock up period. I like the freedom of being able to pull the funds out quickly if it proves advantageous. Just a thought, as an alternative.
Also, my brokerage offers some short term- 1 month - CDs at almost as good a rate.
I think my son is doing some of that. He puts away retained earning in his business, squirrels away money for taxes, etc. at a locked in rate.
This popular poster (this tweet got 772,000 views) said in January 2023 he was smarter than markets and in fact a rising market in January 2023 was 'lala land' because this indicator had a 100% hit rate on predicting recessions. Which he thought we'd be in right now. We're not.
Yet another indicator whose record did not survive the post-pandemic period.
I'm particularly pleased by this one because he insulted the market and those who were long it. And then it turns out he was in la la land, not the market.
Alf @MacroAlf New lows for the US Leading Indicator index. This indicator has a 100% hit rate on anticipating recessions with a 7-8 months lag. It's now pointing to a recessions starting in Q2, and on par with the 2001 recession. Markets, in the meantime: Soft landing & La-La Land
Where are all the naysayers and doom-and-gloom "experts" who 6 months ago were all saying the markets were going to tank? They sure got quiet all of a sudden.
Where are all the naysayers and doom-and-gloom "experts" who 6 months ago were all saying the markets were going to tank? They sure got quiet all of a sudden.
I would like to see what Hussman was predicting 6 months ago .... a 2800 S & P?