Here's none other than Jaime Dimon predicting an economic hurricane that never arrived. He was very scared in June 2022, predicting all kinds of misery, incl $150+ oil. Never happened, although to be fair we did have a financial crisis, which was novel.
Note that many, including Bill Ackman, think Dimon should and will run for prez. Maybe he'd bet better at that than economic predictions!
"I said there were storm clouds. But I'm going to change it. It’s a hurricane," he said during a conference hosted by AllianceBernstein Holdings. "Right now it’s kind of sunny, things are doing fine, everyone thinks the Fed can handle it. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself."
There are two main issues that Dimon said are worrying him: The Federal Reserve moving to unwind its $8.9 trillion balance sheet, deploying a less-known tool known as quantitative tightening that will further tighten credit for U.S. households as officials try to tame red-hot inflation.
The rundown of the Fed's portfolio is poised to begin on Wednesday at an initial combined monthly pace of $47.5 billion. The Fed will increase the runoff rate to $95 billion by September, putting the central bank on track to reduce its balance sheet by about $3 trillion over the next three years.
"We’ve never had QT like this, so you’re looking at something you could be writing history books on for 50 years," Dimon said.
The second matter weighing on Dimon is the Russian-Ukraine war and its effect on the price of commodities like food and oil. The bank CEO said that oil could hit $150 or $175 a barrel as a result of the conflict, which began in late February. Brent crude, the benchmark, is currently selling for $116 a barrel.