Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

Runningart2004 wrote:

As we head into the debates I will remind everyone that neither Trump, Obama, Bush, nor Clinton were up in the polls prior to the debates. We are still extremely early.

Alan

This is of course a great point so my sentiment is always a reflection of the circumstances at the time. We need to see some charisma and sticky ideas come out of the primary though. If it’s only non-constructive Trump bashing it’ll be disappointing. Still, what matters is the winner’s game post primary.

Trollminator wrote:

Runningart2004 wrote:

His 46% from 2016 were not all hardcore trumpers. He had more than just his base.

There are enough moderate Republicans who will sit and enough swing voters upset at the tariffs and Mueller that will spell his defeat.

Alan

Those moderate republicans don’t want a “socialist” in the WH, meaning any Democrat. Fear alone might get Trump just over the finish line in first again. I’m not optimistic that enough pissed off americans will get off their a$$es to vote trump out. The masses are too complacent and every time I watch any interview with a simpleton from either side I cringe.. we might just be really fkd for another 4 years.

Moderate Republicans will sit home in the same way far left Dems sat out 2016 over Bernie.

The consistent polling tells us something. The head to heads match up with Trump's approval within the margin of error. His numbers have not moved from 40-45%.

His best result will be 45% national but most likely lower.

Given the changing electorate and the fact his newness isn't driving turnout he will lose bigely because he is 100% convinced by Hannity and the rest of the far right talking heads that he can win with just his far right base. He can't.

Alan

As a conservative, this would have rocked any other President in our history. Imagine if Obama had one accuser? We would've eaten him alive but at least he had some class. We're living in such a fast news cycle that these are somehow non stories. I'm not voting for somebody like this. Most of the Democrats seem friendly enough on what I care about tbh.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/list-trumps-accusers-allegations-sexual-misconduct/story?id=51956410

Agree.

I came across the above story this AM and it remind me of a rumor I read on this site a while ago. My memory isn’t too good and I can’t recall all of the details of the rumor but basically it had something to do with one individual coming and another individual being done.

Has anyone else heard this rumor? Can anyone jog my memory with additional details?

familyvaluesonlrc wrote:

As a conservative, this would have rocked any other President in our history. Imagine if Obama had one accuser? We would've eaten him alive but at least he had some class. We're living in such a fast news cycle that these are somehow non stories. I'm not voting for somebody like this. Most of the Democrats seem friendly enough on what I care about tbh.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/list-trumps-accusers-allegations-sexual-misconduct/story?id=51956410

If it was against ANY other politician it would be career suicide (see: Moore, Alabama). I can understand not believing one accuser....but there have been over a DOZEN accusations of sexual misconduct, assault or rape. It's old news though as most of these accusations came full steam ahead back in '16.

Teflon Don. The list of things he's done or said that would have sunk any other presidential candidate would fill an entire forum page.

Tariffs are still hurting farmers and his immigration policy is causing harm to children and in some cases death. Add that to the ticking time bomb that is the economy and I believe a wave is building that will crest and crash sometime before Nov '20. Also, provoking Iran will backfire. He's going to get US service members killed OR Israelis.

Alan

Partial truths here. African American turnout did spike for Obama. But it was higher in 2004 than it was in 2016. If H. Clinton had as much turnout in 2016 as Kerry did in 2004 she would have won. The Hispanic vote does have a lot of importance. Hispanics are growing, vote at low rates, and have some voters who swing between parties.

Runningart2004 wrote:

African American turnout spiked in 2008 and 2012 because Obama. In 2016 it returned to the same % as it was in 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988......

While total African American population has remained steady it is the Hispanic population that has increased dramatically.

The African American vote is constant. The Hispanic vote is more important in the long term.

Alan

Mueller testifying in open session July 17.

Should have been April 17.

The effect three months too late will be much weaker than it would have been.

Trump had Barr speak on his version right away and that is the version that will stick with anyone remotely supporting Trump.

Trollminator wrote:

Runningart2004 wrote:

As we head into the debates I will remind everyone that neither Trump, Obama, Bush, nor Clinton were up in the polls prior to the debates. We are still extremely early.

Alan

This is of course a great point so my sentiment is always a reflection of the circumstances at the time. We need to see some charisma and sticky ideas come out of the primary though. If it’s only non-constructive Trump bashing it’ll be disappointing. Still, what matters is the winner’s game post primary.

It would be a great point if it were actually true. Trump led polls from the moment he entered the race. I'm attaching the polling data at the bottom of the post. He takes the lead by mid-July and is briefly matched by Carson but pretty much leads the entire time. The first debate was on 8/6/2015. On August 4th, Trump is polling at 23.2 and Bush is in second at 12.8.

In 2000, Bush led from the beginning and never was headed. I've again attached the polling which is in the Wikipedia article. The first debate was held on August 5th. By that point Bush was polling at about 60%.

Alan already made this argument and I pointed out the facts then. His ability to ignore the actual facts and evidence and just keep repeating lies is positively Trumpian. That's our Alan. Often wrong, but never in doubt.

agip wrote:

If I were aware of any data that supported your conclusion, I'd be sympathetic.

The data are readily available for anybody who actually wants to look.

There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.

That's our agip, often wrong but never in doubt.

Yes, I remember Trump leading the polls from the beginning.

When they did the debates, Trump was always in the center because of that polling.

There was some talk that Trump rigged some of those polls in his favor.

https://www.apnews.com/a4c6f82b5b904a189a2e598255301554

And there was this article in 2015 that turned out wrong.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination/

So I am staying out of the debate on who will win the nomination this time.

Shhhhh.....I'm following the Trump Doctrine of repeating a falsehood until it becomes the truth!!!

The Dem is going to be Biden or possibly someone from left field like Beto if he captures some magic in the debates. Or Klobuchar.

Alan

Runningart2004 wrote:

The Dem is going to be Biden or possibly someone from left field like Beto if he captures some magic in the debates. Or Klobuchar.

Alan

OK. So now we know the Democrat nominee won't be Biden, Beto or Klobuchar.

Patriotic Americans fundamentally reject hillary loving pieces of trash like this democrat piece of trash.

Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

https://youtu.be/PpRKstHl7Y0?t=170

L L wrote:

Mueller testifying in open session July 17.

Should have been April 17.

The effect three months too late will be much weaker than it would have been.

Trump had Barr speak on his version right away and that is the version that will stick with anyone remotely supporting Trump.

Right now it feels like this is just Dems going through the motions... the Mueller stuff has decayed significantly. Who is going to bother tuning into another circus session during the middle of July? It's too late

Runningart2004 wrote:

If it was against ANY other politician it would be career suicide (see: Moore, Alabama). I can understand not believing one accuser....but there have been over a DOZEN accusations of sexual misconduct, assault or rape.

. . .

Tariffs are still hurting farmers and his immigration policy is causing harm to children and in some cases death. Add that to the ticking time bomb that is the economy and I believe a wave is building that will crest and crash sometime before Nov '20.

I had a professor who said that, for an argument to be productive, all the parties had to be able to say--sincerely: "But I could be wrong." If they can't say that, then you've got a "religious" argument, wherein people don't listen but just throw words past each other. (And it need not actually be about religion: Think Yankees fans vs. Red Sox fans.)

President Trump's hardcore supporters *cannot* be wrong about him, because they have equated him with themselves. They can no more give up being Trumpers than they can give up being, say, Christians--because they would be negating themselves.

So they will forgive him anything--literally *any* criminal act, no matter how heinous--or simply say that any evidence of perfidy on his part *must* be fake, because they CANNOT be wrong about him.

And they will double down on their adherence to him, whenever his competence or honesty or patriotism is assailed, because *they* are being assailed, and they can't permit the possibility that those who are attacking could be right.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Now, more practically: As others have observed in this thread (a while back), Trump's tariffs may very well have the unintended but salubrious effect of letting some of the steam out of an overheated economy. I've been paying close attention but see no indication of a so-called Trump Slump before 2021, and maybe later.

Two and one-half years ago, the astute Mike Bloomberg said he thought DJT had a better than 50/50 chance of being re-elected. I agreed, then and now. I hope it doesn't come to pass, but wouldn't be surprised at all if it did. It's hard to stay furious continually, and I don't see the anger that impelled the Democratic successes in 2018 as a major factor in 2020: simple outrage fatigue.

Also known as fanaticism.