all-time high french stock market.
every day we are overweight the US has cost us over the past year or more.
one year:
SP500 -6.9%
Developed non-US -1.5%
Question is how brave we are and how willing we are to give up on US stocks, relatively.
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Here's a bull case:
Michael Antonelli
@BullandBaird
-The 10 year is at 3.42%
-We've added 1 mil jobs this year
-Home prices have stabilized
-inflation is falling
-consumers are spending
-$SPX is +7% YTD at 4100
-Spring is here
Aren't things actually....fine?
10:03 AM · Apr 11, 2023
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65.9K
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seattle prattle wrote:
BTC Myth wrote:
I'm as skeptical on Bitcoin as anyone but the energy usage thing is a huge red-herring. You can easily find just as many articles highlighting almost the exact opposite of that NY Times article. Case in point:Bitcoin is many things but it's not inherently stealing people's electricity and it's probably actually far cleaner than the traditional finance system to be honest. Funny how no one measure how much energy that uses!
Great. I would question your sources.
From Wikipedia: "The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) is a non-profit libertarian think tank founded by the political writer Fred L. Smith Jr. on March 9, 1984, in Washington, D.C., to advance principles of limited government, free enterprise, and individual liberty. CEI focuses on a number of regulatory policy issues, including business and finance, labor, technology and telecommunications, transportation, food and drug regulation, and energy and environment in which they have promoted climate change denial"
Good find. Climate Change Deniers. read: POS.
Let me know when you find something from a reputable source. Until then, bitcoin deserves every bit of regulation countries like China throw at it. Oh, they've essentially killed it there because it is such a bad idea.
Touche. How about the World Economic Forum then? I never said that Bitcoin mining doesn't use energy but so does everything and no one bats an eyelid. No one is writing articles slamming everyone for doing their laundry.00 -
agip wrote:
Prediction from 1/10/2023.
This poster has a huge 197,000 followers on twitter. He seems to be saying that the economy would be slowing sharply in the 1Q, causing inflation to drop. Didn't come true. GDP Now thought the 1Q would be +0.8% real GDP growth about when he wrote that...now GDP Now thinks the 1Q will be +2.2%.
Although he never uses a topic sentence so who knows what he really meant. See what I mean, gente?
AndreasStenoLarsen
@AndreasSteno
Equity markets right now: Hallelujah, inflation is falling
Equity markets in 2-3 months: OOOOH, that what why inflation was falling01 -
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
agip wrote:
Prediction from 1/10/2023.
This poster has a huge 197,000 followers on twitter. He seems to be saying that the economy would be slowing sharply in the 1Q, causing inflation to drop. Didn't come true. GDP Now thought the 1Q would be +0.8% real GDP growth about when he wrote that...now GDP Now thinks the 1Q will be +2.2%.
Although he never uses a topic sentence so who knows what he really meant. See what I mean, gente?
AndreasStenoLarsen
@AndreasSteno
Equity markets right now: Hallelujah, inflation is falling
Equity markets in 2-3 months: OOOOH, that what why inflation was fallingmade me laugh - outstanding.
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From what I can tell., this inflation number is being taken as a positive because if you strip out housing, inflation is falling more than the headlines or core suggest.
And the conventional wisdom is that in May and June housing's high impact on rising inflation will start to ease and stay eased. So headline and core will start falling more at that point.
Hence, lower inflation and the Fed can step back.
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Inflation Now sees this news as deflationary news...it dropped its view of ongoing inflation based on quarterly data. Which sounds good.
CPI was: 4.7%
CPI now: 3.97%
That's based on quarterly data...the month over month stuff isn't as deflationary.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Worst possible outcome. Rallies above 3,900 should be sold. We will likely hit new lows in coming weeks.
DGTD Prediction Result! Sort of.
This was on 3/13/23 during the heat of the financial crisis. Remember that?
SP500 was at 3855 at the time
Now we are a few weeks down the road and the SP500 is at 4,091, up around 6% from that day.
Igy didn't specify how many weeks before new lows, but usually 'in coming weeks' means something around a month.
Easy one here: Igy missed this one.
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Morgan Stanley made the same prediction as Igy and they have been equally wrong.
Tom
@TradingThomas3
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says sell any bounce on this government intervention, next leg of bear market has begun8:23 AM · Mar 13, 2023
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143.8K
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Wow! Massive move to the upside.
Anyone loading their shorts?
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seattle prattle wrote:
Wow! Massive move to the upside.
Anyone loading their shorts?
😂
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Johannes wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Wow! Massive move to the upside.
Anyone loading their shorts?
😂
heh POD
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seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
heh POD
Got to give someone credit, though, about shorting Nvidia. Even on a massive up day, it gradually moved into the negative column for the day, and I think it's been 3 down days in a row now.
I read an interesting idea on stocks like NVDA...we worry when we read things like 'stock market being carried by 5 stocks' but apparently that is very common and does not lead to bad outcomes. It's just the way things work. Much stock market return is very often from a very small number of very successful companies.
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agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Got to give someone credit, though, about shorting Nvidia. Even on a massive up day, it gradually moved into the negative column for the day, and I think it's been 3 down days in a row now.
I read an interesting idea on stocks like NVDA...we worry when we read things like 'stock market being carried by 5 stocks' but apparently that is very common and does not lead to bad outcomes. It's just the way things work. Much stock market return is very often from a very small number of very successful companies.
Outside of 2000-2002 the market(s) have always had great years after bad years. We had a very bad year in 2022. We are in the midst of having a great 2023.
Here is what these stocks have done so far this year ...
AAPL - up 27%
MSFT - up 20%
GOOGL - up17%
NVDA - up about 85%
AMZN - up 23%
TSLA - up 68%
This may not always be true, but anyone missing out on these stocks is really missing out.
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Sally Vix wrote:
agip wrote:
I read an interesting idea on stocks like NVDA...we worry when we read things like 'stock market being carried by 5 stocks' but apparently that is very common and does not lead to bad outcomes. It's just the way things work. Much stock market return is very often from a very small number of very successful companies.
Outside of 2000-2002 the market(s) have always had great years after bad years. We had a very bad year in 2022. We are in the midst of having a great 2023.
Here is what these stocks have done so far this year ...
AAPL - up 27%
MSFT - up 20%
GOOGL - up17%
NVDA - up about 85%
AMZN - up 23%
TSLA - up 68%
This may not always be true, but anyone missing out on these stocks is really missing out.
I'm missing out on TSLA, but that is the only one. And I am not buying Tesla, which of all that group mentioned, has dropped the most from its high back in November 2021, and by a lot.
Interesting chart showing their relative performance since the ATH back in 11/21 (and Apple and NVDA are leading the rebound:
Note: didn't have room to show MSFT, which is mid-range.
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seattle prattle wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Outside of 2000-2002 the market(s) have always had great years after bad years. We had a very bad year in 2022. We are in the midst of having a great 2023.
Here is what these stocks have done so far this year ...
AAPL - up 27%
MSFT - up 20%
GOOGL - up17%
NVDA - up about 85%
AMZN - up 23%
TSLA - up 68%
This may not always be true, but anyone missing out on these stocks is really missing out.
I'm missing out on TSLA, but that is the only one. And I am not buying Tesla, which of all that group mentioned, has dropped the most from its high back in November 2021, and by a lot.
Interesting chart showing their relative performance since the ATH back in 11/21 (and Apple and NVDA are leading the rebound:
Note: didn't have room to show MSFT, which is mid-range.
You really can't look a high tech stock like TSLA over such a short stretch like that. During the middle of 2019 TSLA was trading at $13 andnow it is at $185.
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Sally Vix wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
I'm missing out on TSLA, but that is the only one. And I am not buying Tesla, which of all that group mentioned, has dropped the most from its high back in November 2021, and by a lot.
Interesting chart showing their relative performance since the ATH back in 11/21 (and Apple and NVDA are leading the rebound:
Note: didn't have room to show MSFT, which is mid-range.
You really can't look a high tech stock like TSLA over such a short stretch like that. During the middle of 2019 TSLA was trading at $13 andnow it is at $185.
I did really well with it before it was listed on the S&P 500 about 18 months ago or so. I knew that was the end of the good times, and only dabbled since then, totally abandoning it when Elon started with the series of Twitter blunders and annoying social commentary.
Again, not touching it now.
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Also around the worst day of the financial crisis in March there was much talk about the sharp rise in the MOVE index. (the bond equivalent of the VIX.)
This poster (33,000 followers) thought it foretold problems.
It did not - the spike in the MOVE index marked a good buying point for stocks and bonds.
One month returns:
Stocks: +7%
Bonds: +1%
Reading financial news can be dangerous to your financial health.
Jonesy
@HedgeyeDJ
The Move index, a measure of bond volatility, is inching in on 200.
This is close to the highest level in the history of the index.
It's probably nothing.21 -
Recession watch keeps being pushed back.
GDP Now for the 1Q has been showing stronger growth, not weaker.
Latest estimate: 2.5 percent — April 14, 2023
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