Down goes the Dow

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

In my view if you do not reallocate you will be under $150k over the coming year.

Here's a matured Igy prediction.

On 4/3/22 Noob asked what he should do with his 401k, which was in the vanguard total stock market. He had $285k at the time.

Igy said that by some point 4/3/22-4/3/23 it would fall to $150,000.

Instead, it's now worth approx $260,000.

Lowest it got was around $220,000

Easy call on this one: Igy was wrong on specifics.

Although Igy was directionally correct - the value of the fund did fall quite a bit over the year and remains much lower than it was a year ago. The poster would have done better to sell a year ago, per Igy's advice.

Investor noob wrote:
Any recommendations for my 401k? I've been 100% total market fund for the past few years. Age 38. Should I move some to bonds or stay the course? Balance is about 285k. It fell to the 260k range earlier this year.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

In my view if you do not reallocate you will be under $150k over the coming year.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

Here's a matured Igy prediction.

On 4/3/22 Noob asked what he should do with his 401k, which was in the vanguard total stock market. He had $285k at the time.

Igy said that by some point 4/3/22-4/3/23 it would fall to $150,000.

Instead, it's now worth approx $260,000.

Lowest it got was around $220,000

Easy call on this one: Igy was wrong on specifics.

Although Igy was directionally correct - the value of the fund did fall quite a bit over the year and remains much lower than it was a year ago. The poster would have done better to sell a year ago, per Igy's advice.

Investor noob wrote:
Any recommendations for my 401k? I've been 100% total market fund for the past few years. Age 38. Should I move some to bonds or stay the course? Balance is about 285k. It fell to the 260k range earlier this year.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

In my view if you do not reallocate you will be under $150k over the coming year.

It will get there by Labor Day.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip wrote:

Here's a matured Igy prediction.

On 4/3/22 Noob asked what he should do with his 401k, which was in the vanguard total stock market. He had $285k at the time.

Igy said that by some point 4/3/22-4/3/23 it would fall to $150,000.

Instead, it's now worth approx $260,000.

Lowest it got was around $220,000

Easy call on this one: Igy was wrong on specifics.

Although Igy was directionally correct - the value of the fund did fall quite a bit over the year and remains much lower than it was a year ago. The poster would have done better to sell a year ago, per Igy's advice.

Investor noob wrote:
Any recommendations for my 401k? I've been 100% total market fund for the past few years. Age 38. Should I move some to bonds or stay the course? Balance is about 285k. It fell to the 260k range earlier this year.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

In my view if you do not reallocate you will be under $150k over the coming year.

It will get there by Labor Day.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

In my view if you do not reallocate you will be under $150k over the coming year.

Here's a matured Igy prediction.

On 4/3/22 Noob asked what he should do with his 401k, which was in the vanguard total stock market. He had $285k at the time.

Igy said that by some point 4/3/22-4/3/23 it would fall to $150,000.

Instead, it's now worth approx $260,000.

Lowest it got was around $220,000

Easy call on this one: Igy was wrong on specifics.

Although Igy was directionally correct - the value of the fund did fall quite a bit over the year and remains much lower than it was a year ago. The poster would have done better to sell a year ago, per Igy's advice.

Investor noob wrote:
Any recommendations for my 401k? I've been 100% total market fund for the past few years. Age 38. Should I move some to bonds or stay the course? Balance is about 285k. It fell to the 260k range earlier this year.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

In my view if you do not reallocate you will be under $150k over the coming year.

seattle prattle wrote:

agip wrote:

Here's a matured Igy prediction.

On 4/3/22 Noob asked what he should do with his 401k, which was in the vanguard total stock market. He had $285k at the time.

Igy said that by some point 4/3/22-4/3/23 it would fall to $150,000.

Instead, it's now worth approx $260,000.

Lowest it got was around $220,000

Easy call on this one: Igy was wrong on specifics.

Although Igy was directionally correct - the value of the fund did fall quite a bit over the year and remains much lower than it was a year ago. The poster would have done better to sell a year ago, per Igy's advice.

Investor noob wrote:
Any recommendations for my 401k? I've been 100% total market fund for the past few years. Age 38. Should I move some to bonds or stay the course? Balance is about 285k. It fell to the 260k range earlier this year.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

In my view if you do not reallocate you will be under $150k over the coming year.

So, in a nutshell Igy said his holding would drop by 47% and it dropped only briefly by 23%. Furthermore, Igy's wording seems to suggest that the investment would stay at that level for some time: "you will be under $150K over the coming year".

I would say that that is bad advice.

The fund is currently down only 8% from when the question was posed. It is a 401K Retirement fund, and people don't presumably market time with a retirement fund. Yes, they fluctuate up and down, as we all know. The best advice given the timeframe noted, with the advantage of hindsight, is that the investor should have stayed the course.