Down goes the Dow

Thanks for the work Newly Retired.

I would add that I would personally LOVE to see SP500 drop into the mid or low 3000s in the next few months. To me, that would represent a huge buying opportunity for the longer term. By the same logic, I started pulling out of the market a couple of years ago when it was starting to look too expensive by these naive measures, which protected our retirement savings against some losses. With hindsight, that looks to have been the right decision for us, but will look stupid if the bear market has ended and SP500 marches steadily upward from here ahead of my expectations.

Janet Yellen calls a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Committee. The FSOC was established in 2010 by Dodd-Frank legislation. Maybe Barney can give them some insight of what went wrong with Signature Bank. Yellen bring to the conversation the expertise of $3 million in speaking fees following her tenure at the Fed. Boy I sure feel confident we have such knowledgeable characters to guide the Titanic through troubled waters.

again, I'd argue that the Fed and government have historically done well getting us through crises.

I suggest a couple of key downside levels. Not a prediction, but a forecast. Reasonable in my view. Certainly the Fed has been unreasonable, foolish, and wrong on multiple occasions. So why should I worry about my reputation? Well, here we go. 3,200 or the high prior to Covid, 2,300 the Covid low, and 1,550 the Tech and Housing highs. One other point, in the 3/2000-10/2002, and 10/2007-3/2009 time period the Fed cut all the way down to the lows. Add to all of this, a Government spending well beyond the level of tax receipts.

Back up to $8.6 Trillion and counting…..

This is for pretty much everybody and I welcome your feedback. The investors who jump in and out of the markets looking for deals pretty much never beat the buy-and-hold crowd. Just too many things going against you.

Small caps down 19% from their 52 week highs...get to 25% down and it's probably 'hold your nose and take the plunge' time.

small caps are getting very near their october 22 lows.

VIX is weirdly low at just 24 despite the carnage.

I suppose people are thinking the tech giants will save us all.

to finish the point, I'd probably suggest waiting until the VIX gets over 32 before making trading buys.

"Everyone times the market. Some people buy when they have money, and sell when they need money, while others use methods that are more sophisticated."
- - Marian McClellan (1934-2003), co-creator of the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index

The financial crisis is too recent to affect 1Q GDP, but anyway still showing good Q1 GDP Growth.

but other measurements have started to show slowdown.

GDP Now:
Latest estimate: 3.2 percent — March 24, 2023

Well done, poster-formerly-known-as-idiot. Thanks!

Anyone interested in a bet for 6 months?

Schwab against anything.

Seems that a safe brand cut in half for no lasting reason is a good bet.

remarkably, this is an up week for the SP500. As of 3:25 PM Friday anyway.

and get this:

Last week was an up week too.

Two in a row.

Despite all the wild carnage fear and chaos.

Could it be that confidence returning to the market in a medium to long term timeframe and we are witnessing sector rotation out of the defensive sectors like value and small cap and into the more inflation sensitive tech/growth sectors?