Down goes the Dow

yowzers - this hurts.

we are running the stops here - down 2.2%. US stocks are now flat for the year. Around +4.5% for 52 weeks.

Vix is between 18 and 19 - that is pretty high - suggests some major fear, which is nicely bullish.

This is just the opening salvo, you haven't seen fear yet.

"yowzers - this hurts"

Not me, it doesn't. I have only about 2% in the markets at the moment, just a toe dipped in to see what actually happens to certain funds, rather than working with only theoretical performance.

I really need to focus on tying up money. If the markets go down and stay down, so much for the pension fund returns. You know who will have to make that up, and how. Me, in the form of both taxes and, likely, bail-in.

Not a snowball's chance in hell. Yes, I still worry about these things. They are under-funded as it is, massively. One year of depressed markets will send the stupid fund managers into a panic that will be visited upon anybody with money.

But, all in all, an encouraging day.

Maserati wrote:

"yowzers - this hurts"

Not me, it doesn't. I have only about 2% in the markets at the moment, just a toe dipped in to see what actually happens to certain funds, rather than working with only theoretical performance.

I really need to focus on tying up money. If the markets go down and stay down, so much for the pension fund returns. You know who will have to make that up, and how. Me, in the form of both taxes and, likely, bail-in.

Not a snowball's chance in hell. Yes, I still worry about these things. They are under-funded as it is, massively. One year of depressed markets will send the stupid fund managers into a panic that will be visited upon anybody with money.

But, all in all, an encouraging day.

Is there some reason that you cannot see what actually happens to certain funds without having money in them?

Maserati wrote:

"yowzers - this hurts"

Not me, it doesn't. I have only about 2% in the markets at the moment, just a toe dipped in to see what actually happens to certain funds, rather than working with only theoretical performance.

I really need to focus on tying up money. If the markets go down and stay down, so much for the pension fund returns. You know who will have to make that up, and how. Me, in the form of both taxes and, likely, bail-in.

Not a snowball's chance in hell. Yes, I still worry about these things. They are under-funded as it is, massively. One year of depressed markets will send the stupid fund managers into a panic that will be visited upon anybody with money.

But, all in all, an encouraging day.

yeh, and I'm sure that if the market moves up 10% in six weeks like it did last fall you'll either not be on the boards or say you are invested.

There are many Internet heroes. But only The Mas is an Internet Superhero!

"Seeing" is different to me than "feeling".

agip I am surprised by your post. I don't know what I did to engender such doubt and sarcasm on your part.

Since I started posting on this thread, I have made it known that I have been OUT, and that has never changed. I have never equivocated.

Nor will I buy in even at this level, although I am very, very tempted.

I don't care if it goes up 10% after going down 5% (only a 4% real gain), I have already beaten that this year in realized gain, and am now on autopilot, watching...

Maserati wrote:

agip I am surprised by your post. I don't know what I did to engender such doubt and sarcasm on your part.

Since I started posting on this thread, I have made it known that I have been OUT, and that has never changed. I have never equivocated.

Nor will I buy in even at this level, although I am very, very tempted.

I don't care if it goes up 10% after going down 5% (only a 4% real gain), I have already beaten that this year in realized gain, and am now on autopilot, watching...

fair

apologies

Flagpole, did you see anything on the "horizon" before the 54% and 59% drops?

If so, what did you see & when?

If not, what makes you think you would see it this time around?

How do valuations look when energy stocks are removed? Seems to me that they're dragging things down.

agip wrote:

yowzers - this hurts.

we are running the stops here - down 2.2%. US stocks are now flat for the year. Around +4.5% for 52 weeks.

Vix is between 18 and 19 - that is pretty high - suggests some major fear, which is nicely bullish.

Maybe we should wish Ghost a Happy Birthday, which is what this feels like.

Do you realize how long it has been since we have even had a 10% correction? It has been 4 years, back to 2011.....and that took a government shutdown. My impression is that most of the "bears" are really bulls who didn't buy when the market was cheaper (like when this thread was started) and want an entry. As with other major bull markets, I don't think the market is going to accommodate them until the top really is in.

For frustrated bulls like me stuck with trading the edges of the channel and shorting commodities for recreation, well, you take what the defense gives you, which is a chance to buy some stocks a little cheaper.

Happy Birthday, Ghost.

agip wrote:

yeh buying when there is blood on the street sounds like a good idea...but it is also called catching a falling knife. There is no reason why oil won't go to $30 a barrel.

I might buy some commodities when they get back above the 200 day moving average. Or the 100 day. I dunno.

You selling most of your US stock ETFs agip? I think we're around the time you make your monthly call, and it looks like the S&P, VT, VTI, and Dow are all below their 200-day moving averages...

You're a little early with the birthday wishes, coach d. Wait a few more weeks.

Is that a line from Die Hard 2?

Kevin52 wrote:

This is just the opening salvo, you haven't seen fear yet.

checking on the "system" wrote:

agip wrote:

yeh buying when there is blood on the street sounds like a good idea...but it is also called catching a falling knife. There is no reason why oil won't go to $30 a barrel.

I might buy some commodities when they get back above the 200 day moving average. Or the 100 day. I dunno.

You selling most of your US stock ETFs agip? I think we're around the time you make your monthly call, and it looks like the S&P, VT, VTI, and Dow are all below their 200-day moving averages...

i do it on the 10th of the month so I have some time here to get my courage up.

btw you can stop needling me on this - I acknowledge my fudginess on this.

and I never said most would go.

agip wrote:

checking on the "system" wrote:

You selling most of your US stock ETFs agip? I think we're around the time you make your monthly call, and it looks like the S&P, VT, VTI, and Dow are all below their 200-day moving averages...

i do it on the 10th of the month so I have some time here to get my courage up.

btw you can stop needling me on this - I acknowledge my fudginess on this.

and I never said most would go.

Yes, I could stop needling you on this, I'm sure you'd like that.

"Fudginess". Nice word. Sounds pretty harmless. Could better be stated as:

-Hypocrisy ("the behavior of people who do things that they tell other people not to do : behavior that does not agree with what someone claims to believe or feel")

-Dishonesty

-FullofShitNess

"And I never said most would go"

Lol. True, you just said you followed that system and that would save you from major downturns and took the emotion out of decisions. Shame on us for not thinking to ask "say, agip, what % of your portfolio are you using in this great 200-day ma system that you claim to follow? (that you don't really follow)"

So... say, agip, what % of your portfolio are you using in your great 200-day ma system that you claim to follow?

Hi, POTO!

I'm not going to respond to these anymore because it really sounds like you are an a$$hole and not worthy of decent discussion.