Any consensus on what people here think 2023 will look like roughly? Still lots of predictions of a recession and downturn, but I'm not so sure. I could easily see the S&P500 oscillating up and down between 3900 and 4100 most of the year without any big bump or drop outside that range. I realize we're above that right now but not majorly so. Still feel like it will be at least a year until we see new all time highs... But I haven't been following things too closely the last several months.
Perhaps, or market declines to 3200 on falling EPS, but stabilizes into year end on falling inflation and Fed on hold. Or, market collapses to 2200 on falling EPS, consumer demand retreat, job losses, Fed aggressively cuts interest rates on tightening liquidity and threats to corporate bond market. Market bottoms at 1600 in 2024 after reaching recessionary bottom.
I see these scenarios more likely than a rather benign outcome as you outline. I would point to the extreme market and economic moves that continue unabated. Likely the result of $Trillions in stimulus, handouts, support to weak business models, buybacks, all while running up huge deficits and massive expanse of Fed balance sheet.
Perhaps, or market declines to 3200 on falling EPS, but stabilizes into year end on falling inflation and Fed on hold. Or, market collapses to 2200 on falling EPS, consumer demand retreat, job losses, Fed aggressively cuts interest rates on tightening liquidity and threats to corporate bond market. Market bottoms at 1600 in 2024 after reaching recessionary bottom.
I see these scenarios more likely than a rather benign outcome as you outline. I would point to the extreme market and economic moves that continue unabated. Likely the result of $Trillions in stimulus, handouts, support to weak business models, buybacks, all while running up huge deficits and massive expanse of Fed balance sheet.
Permabear.
Permabull, all reasoning bought with $Trillions in stimulus.😹
Just a reality check on buying the S&P at these levels for anything more a 'trade'. Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) valuations are still at 29x... If you are 'buying the dip' or buying 'Stocks for the Long Run' then time is not on your side at these valuations pic.twitter.com/dY76uo6X03
Any consensus on what people here think 2023 will look like roughly? Still lots of predictions of a recession and downturn, but I'm not so sure. I could easily see the S&P500 oscillating up and down between 3900 and 4100 most of the year without any big bump or drop outside that range. I realize we're above that right now but not majorly so. Still feel like it will be at least a year until we see new all time highs... But I haven't been following things too closely the last several months.
1) A recession is looking less and less likely in 2023, despite The Fed's attempt to push us into one. The job market is just too good...smokin' even.
2) With regard to the stock market, you may be correct, but really NO ONE KNOWS. Plan though should just be to continue putting money into it like clockwork...money that you don't need today, to the tune of 15% MINIMUM of what you make. The overall trend for the market is ALWAYS up, and governments around the world ALWAYS do things to try to ensure that.
Permabull, all reasoning bought with $Trillions in stimulus.😹
Dude, I'm not a perma anything. I just know the market goes up ~73% of the time on a yearly basis and that the overall trend is up. And, YES, our government and others across the world stoke the markets, and they have for DECADES. This is one reason why you should just invest like clockwork.
Your permabear attitude has not served you well, and no one would be wise to take any of your advice ever.
Permabull, all reasoning bought with $Trillions in stimulus.😹
Dude, I'm not a perma anything. I just know the market goes up ~73% of the time on a yearly basis and that the overall trend is up. And, YES, our government and others across the world stoke the markets, and they have for DECADES. This is one reason why you should just invest like clockwork.
Your permabear attitude has not served you well, and no one would be wise to take any of your advice ever.
Any consensus on what people here think 2023 will look like roughly? Still lots of predictions of a recession and downturn, but I'm not so sure. I could easily see the S&P500 oscillating up and down between 3900 and 4100 most of the year without any big bump or drop outside that range. I realize we're above that right now but not majorly so. Still feel like it will be at least a year until we see new all time highs... But I haven't been following things too closely the last several months.
1) A recession is looking less and less likely in 2023, despite The Fed's attempt to push us into one. The job market is just too good...smokin' even.
2) With regard to the stock market, you may be correct, but really NO ONE KNOWS. Plan though should just be to continue putting money into it like clockwork...money that you don't need today, to the tune of 15% MINIMUM of what you make. The overall trend for the market is ALWAYS up, and governments around the world ALWAYS do things to try to ensure that.
Permabull, all reasoning bought with $Trillions in stimulus.😹
Dude, I'm not a perma anything. I just know the market goes up ~73% of the time on a yearly basis and that the overall trend is up. And, YES, our government and others across the world stoke the markets, and they have for DECADES. This is one reason why you should just invest like clockwork.
Your permabear attitude has not served you well, and no one would be wise to take any of your advice ever.
I was buying EM CEFs six months ago when you were shaking in your boots, and would not even consider. Too bad for the permabull.
“The Fed Delivered a Message. Markets Didn’t Hear It. Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron says things may get complicated if the central bank is forced to make things plain to investors.”
No life loser is hilarious. Failed high school track coach who underperforms the market and is clearly bitter at life. Very slow and always has been. Watching you post thousands of times even on weekend nights is hilarious. Can’t wait to outperform you in the market this year and the next 5+. That is, if you and your bald head don’t die off this year.
No life loser is hilarious. Failed high school track coach who underperforms the market and is clearly bitter at life. Very slow and always has been. Watching you post thousands of times even on weekend nights is hilarious. Can’t wait to outperform you in the market this year and the next 5+. That is, if you and your bald head don’t die off this year.
“I just know the market goes up ~73% of the time on a yearly basis and that the overall trend is up.”
That is such a simplistic comment. Treasury Bills outperformed the S&P 500 from May 1995 through March 2009. And there are multiple stretches of similar underperformance of stocks versus bonds going back further in US financial history. Now on any given day what you say is true, but that is hardly a statistic that is at all meaningful. Perhaps fine for someone just starting investing, but poor advice today for you, or any other person that has accumulated significant wealth, retired or even is close to retirement.
“I just know the market goes up ~73% of the time on a yearly basis and that the overall trend is up.”
That is such a simplistic comment. Treasury Bills outperformed the S&P 500 from May 1995 through March 2009. And there are multiple stretches of similar underperformance of stocks versus bonds going back further in US financial history. Now on any given day what you say is true, but that is hardly a statistic that is at all meaningful. Perhaps fine for someone just starting investing, but poor advice today for you, or any other person that has accumulated significant wealth, retired or even is close to retirement.
Igy - you are cherry picking again. Why did you pick May 1995 and March 2009? Oh, now I know! Just look at this chart and it is very clear why you picked those two dates.
