Any consensus on what people here think 2023 will look like roughly? Still lots of predictions of a recession and downturn, but I'm not so sure. I could easily see the S&P500 oscillating up and down between 3900 and 4100 most of the year without any big bump or drop outside that range. I realize we're above that right now but not majorly so. Still feel like it will be at least a year until we see new all time highs... But I haven't been following things too closely the last several months.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Trews wrote:
No longer a growth company. Now a revenue beast.
Yes, $4.6 Billion less than a year ago.
I’m seeing an increase of 4+% from 2021 to 2022.
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seattle prattle wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
ARKK and GME up as well. Pretty sure that is the all clear sign.
forgetting something??? (Hint: stuff of that dude in the Bahamas with the Stanford prof. parents).
Decentralized finance was a big Maserati theme.
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CG3 wrote:
Any consensus on what people here think 2023 will look like roughly? Still lots of predictions of a recession and downturn, but I'm not so sure. I could easily see the S&P500 oscillating up and down between 3900 and 4100 most of the year without any big bump or drop outside that range. I realize we're above that right now but not majorly so. Still feel like it will be at least a year until we see new all time highs... But I haven't been following things too closely the last several months.
Perhaps, or market declines to 3200 on falling EPS, but stabilizes into year end on falling inflation and Fed on hold. Or, market collapses to 2200 on falling EPS, consumer demand retreat, job losses, Fed aggressively cuts interest rates on tightening liquidity and threats to corporate bond market. Market bottoms at 1600 in 2024 after reaching recessionary bottom.
I see these scenarios more likely than a rather benign outcome as you outline. I would point to the extreme market and economic moves that continue unabated. Likely the result of $Trillions in stimulus, handouts, support to weak business models, buybacks, all while running up huge deficits and massive expanse of Fed balance sheet.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
CG3 wrote:
Any consensus on what people here think 2023 will look like roughly? Still lots of predictions of a recession and downturn, but I'm not so sure. I could easily see the S&P500 oscillating up and down between 3900 and 4100 most of the year without any big bump or drop outside that range. I realize we're above that right now but not majorly so. Still feel like it will be at least a year until we see new all time highs... But I haven't been following things too closely the last several months.
Perhaps, or market declines to 3200 on falling EPS, but stabilizes into year end on falling inflation and Fed on hold. Or, market collapses to 2200 on falling EPS, consumer demand retreat, job losses, Fed aggressively cuts interest rates on tightening liquidity and threats to corporate bond market. Market bottoms at 1600 in 2024 after reaching recessionary bottom.
I see these scenarios more likely than a rather benign outcome as you outline. I would point to the extreme market and economic moves that continue unabated. Likely the result of $Trillions in stimulus, handouts, support to weak business models, buybacks, all while running up huge deficits and massive expanse of Fed balance sheet.
I use the 3200 and 2200 as the band of likely targets. One, this represents the pre-Covid high, and Covid low. This also corresponds to approximate valuation 16 x $200 EPS and 16 x $140 EPS.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Perhaps, or market declines to 3200 on falling EPS, but stabilizes into year end on falling inflation and Fed on hold. Or, market collapses to 2200 on falling EPS, consumer demand retreat, job losses, Fed aggressively cuts interest rates on tightening liquidity and threats to corporate bond market. Market bottoms at 1600 in 2024 after reaching recessionary bottom.
I see these scenarios more likely than a rather benign outcome as you outline. I would point to the extreme market and economic moves that continue unabated. Likely the result of $Trillions in stimulus, handouts, support to weak business models, buybacks, all while running up huge deficits and massive expanse of Fed balance sheet.
I use the 3200 and 2200 as the band of likely targets. One, this represents the pre-Covid high, and Covid low. This also corresponds to approximate valuation 16 x $200 EPS and 16 x $140 EPS.
As a benchmark GAAP EPS for 2022 with 68% of companies reporting already down to $176. And, the pre-Covid stimulus GAAP EPS high was $139 for 2019. All we are seeing is adjustments in the economy and eventually markets without the tailwind of $Trillions in stimulus.
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CG3 wrote:
Any consensus on what people here think 2023 will look like roughly?
I think it’s a total crapshoot. Too many big things going on, with attendant u certainty. I’ll predict only that it won’t be boring. I think it should be a pretty volatile year, for US markets anyway.
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Igy - the annualized return of the S & P over the last 10 years is 14.5%.
Absolute return for NASDAQ the last 10 years is 702%. Yes 702%.
Those are crazy numbers. It doesn't matter what the Fed did - those numbers made many people very wealthy. Did HSGFX make you wealthy during the last 10 years? Of course not - it lost you loads of money.
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Sally Vix wrote:
Igy - the annualized return of the S & P over the last 10 years is 14.5%.
Absolute return for NASDAQ the last 10 years is 702%. Yes 702%.
Those are crazy numbers. It doesn't matter what the Fed did - those numbers made many people very wealthy. Did HSGFX make you wealthy during the last 10 years? Of course not - it lost you loads of money.
The conventional view is to look at the returns the last ten years and extrapolate that is the future without understanding why that is highly unlikely.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Igy - the annualized return of the S & P over the last 10 years is 14.5%.
Absolute return for NASDAQ the last 10 years is 702%. Yes 702%.
Those are crazy numbers. It doesn't matter what the Fed did - those numbers made many people very wealthy. Did HSGFX make you wealthy during the last 10 years? Of course not - it lost you loads of money.
The conventional view is to look at the returns the last ten years and extrapolate that is the future without understanding why that is highly unlikely.
We can go from 2000, we can go from 1990, we can go from 1920. Where do you want to go from? No matter what you pick - investors have raked in enormous profits from the stock market. HSGFX has failed miserably over the last 10 years. Do you acknowledge that?
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I added to my HSFGX position at close yesterday after selling the same dollar amount December 2022 up 20% on the year. I acknowledge this fact.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Igy - the annualized return of the S & P over the last 10 years is 14.5%.
Absolute return for NASDAQ the last 10 years is 702%. Yes 702%.
Those are crazy numbers. It doesn't matter what the Fed did - those numbers made many people very wealthy. Did HSGFX make you wealthy during the last 10 years? Of course not - it lost you loads of money.
The conventional view is to look at the returns the last ten years and extrapolate that is the future without understanding why that is highly unlikely.
Actually, the conventional and wise view is to ignore the extrapolation of what may happen in the future and understand how great the market was for investors for the last 10 years. You can't deny this.
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Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The conventional view is to look at the returns the last ten years and extrapolate that is the future without understanding why that is highly unlikely.
We can go from 2000, we can go from 1990, we can go from 1920. Where do you want to go from? No matter what you pick - investors have raked in enormous profits from the stock market.
Not really.
Dow closed at 300 12/31/1928.
Did not close that high again until 1954.
26 years to get back to even.
But not really. Considering pretty heavy inflation in the 1940s and early 50s.
Probably took @ 30 years to get back to even
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Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The conventional view is to look at the returns the last ten years and extrapolate that is the future without understanding why that is highly unlikely.
Actually, the conventional and wise view is to ignore the extrapolation of what may happen in the future and understand how great the market was for investors for the last 10 years. You can't deny this.
True, a fake market built on engineered below market interest rates, $8.5 Trillion in QE, $4.5 Trillion in handouts and support, all of which continue to undermine markets, leaving a legacy of debt and distortion for future generations.
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Sally Vix wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The conventional view is to look at the returns the last ten years and extrapolate that is the future without understanding why that is highly unlikely.
Actually, the conventional and wise view is to ignore the extrapolation of what may happen in the future and understand how great the market was for investors for the last 10 years. You can't deny this.
Go back 15 years and the picture is a bit different
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Sally Vix wrote:
Igy - the annualized return of the S & P over the last 10 years is 14.5%.
Absolute return for NASDAQ the last 10 years is 702%. Yes 702%.
Those are crazy numbers. It doesn't matter what the Fed did - those numbers made many people very wealthy. Did HSGFX make you wealthy during the last 10 years? Of course not - it lost you loads of money.
S&P return is 12.7% annualized / 230% cumulative for the decade ending 31 Jan 2023.
NASDAQ return is 15.1% annualized / 310% cumulative for the decade ending 31 Jan 2023.
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knox harrington wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Igy - the annualized return of the S & P over the last 10 years is 14.5%.
Absolute return for NASDAQ the last 10 years is 702%. Yes 702%.
Those are crazy numbers. It doesn't matter what the Fed did - those numbers made many people very wealthy. Did HSGFX make you wealthy during the last 10 years? Of course not - it lost you loads of money.
S&P return is 12.7% annualized / 230% cumulative for the decade ending 31 Jan 2023.
NASDAQ return is 15.1% annualized / 310% cumulative for the decade ending 31 Jan 2023.
That would make the decade cost of the NASDAQ return about $3 Trillion a year. Not sure that will endure or be money well spent over the next decade. 😂
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Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2022 (with 50% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 61% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
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Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2022 (with 50% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 61% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Same FactSet report: “Given concerns in the market about a possible economic slowdown or recession, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the first quarter?
The answer is yes. During the month of January, analysts lowered EPS estimates for the first quarter by a larger margin than average. The Q1 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q1 for all the companies in the index) decreased by 3.3% (to $52.41 from $54.20) from December 31 to January 31.
In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the first month of a quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.5%. During the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.8%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 2.2%. During the past 20 years (80 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.7%.
Thus, the decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate recorded during the first month of the first quarter was larger than the 5- year average, the 10-year average, the 15-year average, and the 20-year average.”00 -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Trews wrote:
No longer a growth company. Now a revenue beast.
Yes, $4.6 Billion less than a year ago.
Hmmmm. $147.38 when Igy posted this, then $157.38 about 75 minutes later.
Maybe there is something to this contrarian indicator thing. 🤣
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