D1 Women’s XC Championship Simulation Countdown

Hey, wait a minute!

Weren't you the one who was all flustered a couple days back when I started posting about OR being the slight favorite and why I thought so?

This is exactly what I meant when I said Oregon may have been sandbagging.

Thompson, Frias and Barnett could simply run much faster than their simulation time and we would be listening to Shalane at the press conference.

Thompson probably the most curious. Will she run optimally like last year, or slower like her '25 performance indicates?

Lots of chances this year for Oregon, BYU and NC State ladies to step up and be heros.

6 writers from the Stride Report gave their picks for the top 40 W (and M) for Saturday. All 6 included 5 from NC St, most had 3 from BYU (some had 2) and 4 from OR (some had 3) in the top 40. Scoring this, the average for NC St was in the low 90s, the minimum for the 4 OR scorers was 54, and the minimum for 3 BYU scorers was 50.

4 picked NC St to win and 2 picked Oregon to win. Of these 2, 1 seems theoretically possible as they had Oregon at 54 with 4 runners and NC St at 98 with 5 runners (54+41-43 < 98), while the other seems impossible as they had Oregon at 60 with 4 runners and NC St at 90 with 5 runners (60+41>90)!

Surprisingly, at least to me, none had Chamberlain of BYU in top 10.

She def has the capability of being in the top 10.

My serious question for you is why do you spoof other people’s handles? In a sense it is a form of lying (trying to deceive), and it can really make it hard for casual readers to try and understand the conversation.

Maybe you too were spoofed in the past sometime on the web? You were hurt and angered by it, so you hand-down the cycle of abuse.

It is a slippery slope where the spoofer, in the big picture, contributes to the degradation of social norm, and really ends up further harming themselves.

Anyway, maybe if not you, others reading this will think about it when they consider doing it in the future.

ok ok i'm done! I was just bored

Dalia has made huge strides since her injuries but has never competed at this high of a level before. That being said, she was a strong talent while in HS. She will be a huge part of the deciding factor for them.

One thing to note is that last year, Oregon had momentum going into championships but didn't race to the best of their ability. As stacked as they are, NC State and BYU have a better track record of peaking at the right time, coaching-wise.

It seems I can think of an example of every top team having an off day at nationals.

The rains are over, but right now this course sounds squishy.🥹 You can hear the ‘ squish ‘ with every footstep in this video:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DRVlxioDSyB/

I think Michalak and Rauber have a history of being "mudders". Engelhardt not so much.

As a runner you have to be all weather, all terrain. Fun and toughness are what NC State is preaching. Jane is just grateful to be representing BYU. Totally different team culture reflected in the news conference.

I chuckled at the cali-girl reference.

Isaac Wood followed that video up with a women’s team prediction, and he went:

1. Oregon, 2. NC State, 3. BYU, 4. Florida.

But he said that is with an iffy Hartman, and if she were to return to earlier season form, he gives NC State the nod.

LOL, BYU will secretly be hanging NXN banners tonight to confuse Engelhardt.

Way too much thought is being put into Hartman issue. She's had the plantar challenge since last June. That's why she skipped USATF track and started the xc ramp up late.

Her result at ACC was not a plantar problem, just a pacing issue. She redlined at 5k, and faded. Not first runner to ever do this. The real news at ACC was how well Napoleon and Gapes ran, as that gives NC St even more firepower.

Hartman will run fine with no plantar issue.

For BYU or Oregon to win, they will need many season best performances, but it's certainly possible.

Rather or not shallow analysis from others does not conclude that NC State is the overwhelming favorite, per the numbers , “for BYU or Oregon to win, they will need many season best performances”, and NC State will need to significantly falter somewhere in their lineup.

Oregon 1-3 is lights out. 4 frias and 5 Thompson extremely consistent. Barnett at 6 they need to let run wild and go for something special or crash out. I’m that confident that Oregon 4 and 5 will hold up. They need to take a risk with one runner. Barnett was great at Oklahoma state finishing 44. I think she needs to try a crash or flourish strategy.

Gaults article quickly slipped out behind the paywall, and then it went back behind the paywall, but when I read it, he seemed to be overlooking something, or contradicting himself regarding his analysis of BYU (but unless someone posts what he said about BYU, I cannot give specifics on where I found it deficient); his analysis is shallow to conclude that all three are not that far apart. I disagree. NC State, on paper (meaning through unbiased analysis) is the overwhelming favorite. And LACCTiC is concluding the same.

Do I need to go over the numbers again? Are you having trouble understanding how LACCTiC arrives at its conclusions? Where specifically are you in disagreement? Is it at the #3-#5 spots?

I heard a typical Flotrak analyst during one of their online events, and it seemed he was a bit confused. It was not a technically sound take, but more like a quick jumbled together blurb, throwing out names.

Do you agree that NC State’s 1-3 are also “lights out”? You seem to agree that Oregon is the underdog when you suggest they are going to have to “take risk” (of blowing up) with at least one runner.