Serious question for those saying Boston can/will happen in September: What's that scenario look like?
Do we get a vaccine and herd immunity in record time? Does coronavirus disappear as quickly as it came? Does society accept some level of coronavirus spread and accompanying deaths and illnesses?
Guywithaquestion wrote:
With guidelines released today, do you think the Boston Marathon will happen in September?
LRC note. Here are the guidelines:
https://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=6840714-Guidelines
I mean if schools are allowed to be open then everything should be honestly.
Schools are probably the single greatest point of spreading.
Jerry Maguire wrote:
Guywithaquestion wrote:
With guidelines released today, do you think the Boston Marathon will happen in September?
LRC note. Here are the guidelines:
https://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=6840714-GuidelinesI mean if schools are allowed to be open then everything should be honestly.
Schools are probably the single greatest point of spreading.
Just because the "Opening Up American Again" guideline may say schools may resume in person classes does not mean the governors of every start will move to that phase by fall or allow in person schooling in that phase. It is a guideline. Without a vaccine I see teachers and parents the one most at risk at sending children back to school. How are teachers with 25 to 35 students in a class room going to maintain 6 foot distance between students in the classrooms, restrooms, cafeteria, etc? I would expect most or schools continuing with remote learning into the fall.
Naysayer wrote:
Jerry Maguire wrote:
I mean if schools are allowed to be open then everything should be honestly.
Schools are probably the single greatest point of spreading.
Just because the "Opening Up American Again" guideline may say schools may resume in person classes does not mean the governors of every start will move to that phase by fall or allow in person schooling in that phase. It is a guideline. Without a vaccine I see teachers and parents the one most at risk at sending children back to school. How are teachers with 25 to 35 students in a class room going to maintain 6 foot distance between students in the classrooms, restrooms, cafeteria, etc? I would expect most or schools continuing with remote learning into the fall.
This. Anyone that thinks there will be any racing in 2020 is delusional. We’ll probably have fairly normal racing in 2022. 2021 will be the transition year.
there was I wrote:
no joke wrote:
Even if each phase takes a month and phase 1 starts in June, it'll all be over before the designated date. All this "nothing will happen in 2020" is just pure fearmongering.
Meanwhile in Japan, where corona is a fraction of what it is in the U.S. and Europe, five marathons in October and November with fields of 10000+ have already canceled because it's unrealistic to try to go ahead. Good luck getting U.S. and European marathons in September/October off the ground.
Might have to run them all here in Australia. Under control here. Football codes may restart in June.
If there are no races until 2021 the road race business will be toast, so good luck.
That's fine with me. I stopped paying $35-$50 to run a local race and $150 to $280 for half /fulls a long time ago. It's ridiculous anyway.
Why can't trail races go on? No need for a Mass start. With chip timing, you can time everyone separately.
Why not triathlons, rules require 15' separation on bike. Maybe they could make a rule on the run too.
Well to add some salt in the wound here, today's forecast in Boston is the best race day weather since 2013. High of 51, light clouds and light wind.
Looks like a good group of runners hit the course this morning. I was out on my run and they are spread out but looks like a dozen or so, maybe a little more. Only saw one woman. Wonder if they all make it to Beacon St.
Aussiestatman wrote:
there was I wrote:
Meanwhile in Japan, where corona is a fraction of what it is in the U.S. and Europe, five marathons in October and November with fields of 10000+ have already canceled because it's unrealistic to try to go ahead. Good luck getting U.S. and European marathons in September/October off the ground.
Might have to run them all here in Australia. Under control here. Football codes may restart in June.
Countries doing well like Australia surely have travel bans/restrictions or quarantine requirements to keep it that way.
Boston insurance wrote:
Does society accept some level of coronavirus spread and accompanying deaths and illnesses?
This. Eventually every country will lift restrictions because otherwise the 'cure' would be more damaging than the 'disease' and life will go on.
America might be behind the rest of the world though because of being the most succeptible to panic, propaganda and stuff like that. Just see the flu shots for example. More than half of the US population get them. I was visiting the US during the flu season once and on my morning ran went into CVS to grab something, well, I had to escape from the guards there because they were VERY insistent on giving me a free flu shot, maybe they would've used force If I hadn't ran away. Rest of the world? People don't give a sh1t about flu and flu shots and it's not like it's wiping out populations every winter.
I don't mean to imply 'it's just a flu', but there are a lot of similarities, and I think it's likely that the world outside of the US would just live with it, while America has all of this pandemic mixed together with Trump's re-election campaign and it really hits the fan.
donuts wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Might have to run them all here in Australia. Under control here. Football codes may restart in June.
Countries doing well like Australia surely have travel bans/restrictions or quarantine requirements to keep it that way.
We crushed it when we forced returning travellers into hotels for two weeks. Just need the same for the runners.
Slightly different argument than - schools are allowed to open.
35,000 runners, 1/3 from other countries, many more from the rest of the US.
Additional family and spectators coming as well.
This has the potential to launch a firestorm if the virus is not contained in all places of runners’ origin.
I haven't read this thread, but Boston will not happen this year.
There's this rush to get golf, baseball, and NASCA, going, and when so, there will be even more outbreaks, on top of the outbreaks we'll have from Georgia opening fitness centers, bowling alleys, tattoo places, barbers, hail and nail places, and massage studios this weekend. You know, because those are essential businesses - or in Georgia, the only businesses there are actually.
There. Is. No. Vaccine.
So the dying will continue. These big numbers will see won't go away any time soon. It's good we're losing these fat white supremacists folks, but they have malformed kids, too, so they might stick around a bit longer.
I've had a relative die, I've had a family wedding go off with nobody there, just bride and groom in masks at the courthouse. I read The Hot Zone, I saw World War Z. Stuff will begin opening up in the next few weeks, and in the smart states, that will be businesses managed by common sense. In the dumb states, at least we'll have fewer leachers taking money from Blue states.
It’s time to cancel everything in the 2020’s. Live with the disease that has death rate under 1%!
not happening wrote:
You'd be lucky to see it happen in April 2021.
Pretty much.
I hope you’re right, I have many friends in your beautiful country. But Fall is just beginning in OZ and thus flu season is just beginning and peaks in August. I wouldn’t assume you are out of the woods just yet.
I don't see it happening, took my refund and started thinking about 2021. Also entered in NYC Marathon on 11/1 but suspect that might bite the dust too.
All that said things are moving at such a velocity and changing day by day who know's for sure where we'll be by the fall? More Covid testing, more antibody testing, more people who have got sick/recovered, temperature checking or Covid test at number pickup, more waves at starting line??
Alberto's Dog wrote:
rojo wrote:
I was thinking about this yesterday as if I was an agent. I was thinking, "I'd want to sign my athlete up with the race most likely to have an elite pro race."
For the fall, I think it's London (they have the money and might hold an elite only race. I think there is a close to zero chance Boston holds an elite only race) or NY - as it's the latest.
I agree here, and am actually surprised by the amount of optimism (though less so on this thread) I see in the running community about these September/October events.
To expect 75,000 athletes - almost none of them native to that region where the race is held - to come to a race is nearly unthinkable for something that needs to be ready to go by summer's end. It's actually an even harder case to make than sports where, theoretically, you're drawing mostly local fans. The World Marathon Majors (and most similarly-sized races) necessitate travel. We just won't be there by September or October.
I'm bummed - I had really hoped to smash a PR or two this year - but I think I'll be lucky to lace up for a Turkey Trot.
I think I've been delusional about this until basically today when my state formally cancelled school for the rest of the year. I'm signed up for Chicago and was really looking forward to gunning for a PR after setting PRs in the 5k and and 10k last fall. Thinking you're right that it won't happen though. Feel like I keep getting strung along though (plus I want to believe) -- a half IM tri I was signed up for in June (which was my early season target race) just rescheduled to early September, and I was like, "Yeah, I can totally fit that into my Chicago build!"