2019 Girls NXN top 5 individual predictions

The only way Touhy won’t win NXN is if she has a really off day. Considering Touhy is an extremely consistant runner and on track to peak now, the chances are very likely. Touhy will be the best runner out there. If she looses everyone will know she had an off day, not tag someone else was actually better then her.

interview with Marlee Starliper...just hoping to do her best

https://nxn.runnerspace.com/eprofile.php?event_id=13&do=videos&video_id=286669

MileSplit's Predictions: wrote:

https://www.milesplit.com/articles/272193-did-we-get-it-right-milesplit-predicts-nxn-finishes

I was intrigued by Milesplit's predictions.

A few things stuck out to me.

1.) Hart being all over the place in the predictions.

I'm not that surprised by it because we don't really know which Hart is going to show. The one from NXN last year or Foot Locker last year. I feel as if many people had her in the running after her great NXR race against Dudek. Then she got 4th at the Foot Locker Regional and appears to have taken a back seat on many people's lists. I don't know how I feel either about a prediction for her. It will be interesting to see how she does and then rebounds for Foot Locker.

2.) Our confidence in Starliper.

I haven't followed her all that much (other than know she has been running great all season), but I know she has been a contender the past 2 years at FL and finished 13th. I heard the 17:01 was crazy at the PA meet and she obviously just dominated the Foot Locker Northeast Regional and beat out Masciarelli (and looked relaxed doing it). I’m just surprised many people haven’t mentioned her past Nationals struggles. Oregon weather may suit her better than San Diego since it’s cold around this time in PA. Plus I know people are saying she definitely wants to prove something by going to both Nike and FL. With that said, I would still predict her being the runner-up based on her last 2 races. I don't know how confident I feel in that choice, though.

3.) Walters not being a Top 5 selection across the board (I guess the same can be said for her as Hart. Predicted as high as 2nd, but some have her outside the Top 5).

With most of these top girls, the only times they have raced (or faced formidable challenges) is at the Regional race(s). Ewert and Dudek (I know, not running NXN) have faced three times and a lot of the Midwest girls had both Regionals against each other, but otherwise, the top talent has . Additionally, some can say these girls are not going all-out at Regionals because the whole point is to just qualify.

Walters and Tuohy are the only exception (facing 3 times? not 4, right?) and Walters proved she vastly improved. She seems to be taking a more aggressive approach this year and it's paid off with her times. She additionally has to worry about the team picture (beating girls like Ewert and Max). As others said, some girls may try to take it out fast with Tuohy and I more so see Walters running her own race (knowing the team implications), but I see her as a Top 5 lock.

I could be way off, but my predictions would be:

1.) Tuohy

2.) Starliper

3.) Walters

4.) Ewert

5.) Hart

6.) Thorvaldson

I'm excited to see this race. I think after Tuohy (my personal opinion; I know some think she will lose), 2nd place may come down to race strategy.

1-Hart

2- Starliper

3.-Tuohy

4-Walters

5- Ewert

IL is going to prove to be too much this year in both races NXN and at Footlocker.

If anyone is going to beat Tuohy it’s Walters. Here’s how: Tuohy bolts out like usual but has Thorvaldson as company. It freaks Tuohy out and she pushes even harder, but Thorvaldson is on an adrenaline high and sticks to her side. They have a 10 second gap on the field at the mile. At 1.25 miles reality starts to set in for Thorvaldson and she starts going backwards. By 2 miles Thorvaldson has been passed by 3 more girls. Tuohy’s lead is still 10 seconds but Walters starts closing on her. With 1/2 mile to go she’s only 5 seconds behind Tuohy and that’s when Tuohy starts to panic and tie up. Walters takes the win and owes Thorvaldson a beer (4-5 year rain check).

One further point for those of you who are focused on times, Milesplit just put out an Article on best improvement on 5k (XC) races year over year.

The one interesting item off of here is that a few athletes dropped below 17 min for a 5k race in 2019. Dudek, Max, Hart, Thorvaldson all have crossed below 17 this year...16:45 - 16-55 ish numbers. Starliper was at 17. Masciarelli has not broken 17.

it appears that this is the first time for most of them below 17, but maybe some have done it more that once.

A quick glance at Tuohy's record shows 6-8 times below 17, and many of those are 6:30ish and below. She ran a 16:22 in Oct and her last 3 races at Bowdoin have been low 17:02 - 17:13. These were not full effort races. At NXR she crossed in 17:06 and looked like she had just finished a warm-up lap.

Tuohy ran NXN in 16:37 last year. Chmiel's best time was 16:54. The only other time I saw below 17 in the years before was Rainsberger (16:56).

So to have any chance of competeing with Tuohy (assuming she has a decent day), the other ladies have to run significantly better than Chmiel, Rainsberger, Oakley , Ostrander etc. ever did at that course.

I don't think it's likely...but if one does it will be the race of her life... and good on her!!

fastTuohy wrote:

interview with Marlee Starliper...just hoping to do her best

https://nxn.runnerspace.com/eprofile.php?event_id=13&do=videos&video_id=286669

gotta say, this girl is just a joy to watch both running and in her interviews. Seems to have just an awesome personality!!

I hope she her two best races at NXN and FLN to cap of her career!!

Definitely going to be an IL girl. 16 flat 3 mile can get to 16:40 5k.

IL Run wrote:

Definitely going to be an IL girl. 16 flat 3 mile can get to 16:40 5k.

yes it can, if it is all downhill. last year Hart ran 16:00 at Detweiler in IL state meet and ran 16:30 at Portland! (Oops I got that wrong, she ran 17:30 at Portland!). She then ran 17:00 in San Diego.

Good points! Yeah Tuohy is had a great year oh, really smart running.

There's no indication that anyone's going to be able to really challenge her if she is healthy and feeling good that day

You should definitely be a creative writer, very creative story

I think people are overemphasizing Sydney thorvaldson speed

Her track times and speed ratings don't show that she's going to be able to hang with Tuohy

The only girl who would have a shot is starliper as she has a super fast mile

No way Walters is going to be Tuohy. She just doesn't have the times. I mean it's certainly not likely

Yeah Tuohy look super composed after nxr. Also fifth time an nxn so she knows the deal

Stopwatcher wrote:

You should definitely be a creative writer, very creative story

I think people are overemphasizing Sydney thorvaldson speed

Her track times and speed ratings don't show that she's going to be able to hang with Tuohy

The only girl who would have a shot is starliper as she has a super fast mile

No way Walters is going to be Tuohy. She just doesn't have the times. I mean it's certainly not likely

I haven't been following close enough to say for sure. All I know is I heard Thorlvadson was running in an almost reckless fashion that put's on quite a show. I could see someone swinging for the fences who has the speed to stay with her early and that causing Tuohy to run even harder. I figured Walters has been the closest to her all year and at least as importantly isn't going to feel like Tuohy is some god you read about all year and then race at nationals. She's raced her several times and is always within about 100 meters of Tuohy at the finish. 100 meters can be lost quickly if someone is paying off debt they owe from a reckless first mile.

Walters' team has a better pedigree than any other at this meet and that counts for something because those FM teams are dialed in just about every year to run their best on whatever the NXN course is. Meaning Walters is likely to have one of her best races of the season. Tuohy is likely to as well, no doubt, but if she falters slightly that might be enough for someone else to capitalize who has been relatively close several times recently.

It's good to be creative I was digging it!

I just think Tuohy just beat Walters by 20 seconds and definitely looks stronger afterwards probably could have won by 30 easy

The only one who has Tuohy speed is starliper maybe hart.... so if she's feeling it I could see starliper going out with Tuohy but that's about it I really don't think anyone has the speed to run a fast first mile on that course. Remember it's really tough footing. So I don't think anyone besides starliper could be within 10 seconds of her at the mile. If starliper if is feeling good maybe she will push it in at least it'll be interesting

Yeah Sydney thorvaldson Sydney masciarelli Jenna Hutchins Brooke rauber and Lauren ping a probably going to be the ones battling for national championships next year

I have posted this before and I guess I need to say this again: kudos to Bill Meylan of tullyrunners.com for his painstaking efforts for developing a numerical scale to something that started off as a bit of a game hobby to something that is gaining increasing national recognition based on other websites like milesplit or dyestat that have utilized this scale. Personally, I am a bit amazed that it yields the level of predictability that it has shown. However, people need to realize that it a relative not an absolute measurement like blood pressure or cholesterol which are universal acceptance for comparison purposes. Touhy scoring a 165 or 170 shows that she is very dominant over the class or group of people in NY who she regularly races, e.g. Rauber or Walters. Similarly for Thoryaldson or Starliper, scoring a 155 or 160 shows their relative dominance (maybe less so) among their group of peers. However, since Starliper and Thorvaldson never race Touhy, it is difficult to make accurate cross group comparisons based on this method. The realty is that all these girls have been absolutely dominant and undefeated over their peers this season. Whether they win by 20 or 90 seconds, does it really matter? If you can win so easily, why the need to kill yourself just to score a 170 measurement? We don't really know how hard they are pushing it. The one thing I heard about Touhy is that she is already running high mileage with intense workouts. If this is true, it hard to see her knocking large chunks of time from where she is already. If people want to make predictions, then track times have more internal validity than this scale .

Meylan also admits that differences in weather, course conditions, and topography throw quite a bit of uncertainty over this scale. There is also definitely something to be said for having a home course advantage. If someone were to routinely race the Portland course, they would do better than someone who flies across the country, never having run the course before. Psychological factors like being able to mentally rehearse and visualize the course beforehand really do come into play.

You're certainly right there's always some margin of error with any assessments and speed ratings are no different

But you have to remember he is going on some historic criteria that should give fairly accurate comparisons like the nxr races and the big Regional meets. Most of the assessments put it at a margin of within 3 speed rating points and some even as high as within one speed rating point

So when Sydney thorvaldson gets a 160 speed rating and nxr and Tuohy gets 168 those should be fairly accurate numbers because those are big races with a lot of history and a lot of familiar names running them. Speed ratings would be less accurate if it's new course and there are some Runners that we don't have much stats on

Meylan speed ratings compare high school cross country runner performances, not courses. I just hope all the runners are healthy and without injury. If sick or injured, they should skip the meet. Also I would imagine that the top runners who have never run the course, take the time to jog or walk it before the race.