Katelyn Tuohy takes on Sunken Meadow

not just a cruise wrote:

Sooo wrote:

Tuohy could have broken 16:30 today all out. That 16:52 was a cruise in the park out there

Then all out is about 8 seconds per mile faster, eh? Yeah, 16:52...just a cruise in the park. Did you ever actually run?

Her speed rating today was 173... She’s been 176-178 the last two efforts. Her coach explicitly said she wasn’t to run all out. But hey buddy, I guess we’ll see in a month when Tuohy runs 16:30 at Sunken Meadow. I’ll gladly bump this thread then.

Touhy runs a lot. She was running fast and hard 2 hours before race time today. Her sprints off the starting line were not strides - they were sprint form- it was kinda weird to watch - as you won’t see things like that at a college meet. Who knows what her all out is now but I will say meylens speed ratings are confused by her and what she is doing. He is just wrong. But he will demand he is right

not just a cruise wrote:

Sooo wrote:

Tuohy could have broken 16:30 today all out. That 16:52 was a cruise in the park out there

Also cruise in the park may be an over exaggeration, but I’m saying it wasn’t an all out effort..

Then all out is about 8 seconds per mile faster, eh? Yeah, 16:52...just a cruise in the park. Did you ever actually run?

Statsman The Real One wrote:

Laughing .... wrote:

I think that's out of reach for a girl.

It does sound insane, doesn’t it? She’s currently in shape for about a 14:35-14:50 on a lightning fast course like Woodbridge. And she runs hills very well so although it’s hard for me to believe too, that’s what the numbers point to. Remember she’s keeping up with 9:10-9:20 guys. I coached an 8:55 guy who ran around 15:10 and a 9:05 guy who broke 15:30 at Foot Locker. If she’s motivated, healthy and wanted to really test herself I’d put money on her breaking 16:00.

Using Cheserek as baseline and applying 1.11 male/female conversion factor:

EC/Holmdel: 14:53 x 1.11 = 16:31 KT actual: 16:21

EC/Sunken Meadow: 15:20 x 1.11 = 17:01 KT actual: 16:53

EC/Balboa Park: 14:52 x 1.11 = 16:30 KT actual: ?????

I'd give her 16:20, maybe another five seconds, not breaking sixteen.

Hope we see her there but I suspect she may make the same decision as last year and pass.

You're probably in the right area. You left out VC.

Ches 11:55 (from memory): x 1.11 = 13:14. I think she ran like 13:21, but of course that was *last* year, as a freaking sophomore. If she's say, 15 seconds faster than last year, that'd be pretty well in line with your other numbers there.

If she runs hard at FL, and is still healthy and feeling good, and has decent conditions, you gotta figure she most likely breaks 16:30 pretty easily.

I wouldn't be shocked at 16:15. 16-flat, ridiculous though it seems, is probably *not* completely inconceivable for her, if a bunch of factors lined up well.

(Remember that Ches's time there is arguably a bit weaker than some of his other times. No one ever ran faster at VC, for instance, while a bunch of guys have done so at Balboa.)

If you think about it a little, you really could make a case that 16-flat's not all that implausible.

(I wouldn't bet *against* this girl, in any case.)

Ches wasn't trying to run all-out at Balboa his jr or sr year. He just wanted to win, which is exactly what he did. If you want to know what Tuohy is capable of relative to guys it's best not to use the times of a boy was always winning. Better to use the times of guys who did not win so you can have more confidence they were pushed to their limit.

Nobody would have or did guess that Ches would win NCAAs as a freshman based off his times at Footlocker. That's because he wasn't at his limit there.

Many/most of the faster times were run a long time ago. Balboa course is arguably not as fast today. VC, on the other hand, has arguably gotten faster and draws regionally, not nationally.

16:00 for Tuohy on Balboa would convert to 14:24 for a boy. No one has been able to approach Reina's 14:36 in a long time. Hunter gave a hard effort and ran 14:55.

Is Tuohy that much better, relatively speaking than all the boys who have been on Balboa? I have to say: no, not happening.

Statsman The Real One wrote:

Ches wasn't trying to run all-out at Balboa his jr or sr year. He just wanted to win, which is exactly what he did. If you want to know what Tuohy is capable of relative to guys it's best not to use the times of a boy was always winning. Better to use the times of guys who did not win so you can have more confidence they were pushed to their limit.

Nobody would have or did guess that Ches would win NCAAs as a freshman based off his times at Footlocker. That's because he wasn't at his limit there.

I agree. I think that may be why his times there are a little less (relatively) impressive than some of his others.

(Though it also might be that he was a bit over-raced and beat-up by that point as a junior, and a bit *under*-raced as a senior, after taking most of the season off to focus on school and getting into college.)

And it's tough to know how 'all-out' he was in any of those other races, too. (Except the handful where he rigs out at the end, and the arms go flailing in the last 100.)

But using Ches's times was just a quick proxy, I think, and it probably works fairly well.

Soooo wrote:

not just a cruise wrote:

Then all out is about 8 seconds per mile faster, eh? Yeah, 16:52...just a cruise in the park. Did you ever actually run?

Her speed rating today was 173... She’s been 176-178 the last two efforts. Her coach explicitly said she wasn’t to run all out. But hey buddy, I guess we’ll see in a month when Tuohy runs 16:30 at Sunken Meadow. I’ll gladly bump this thread then.

All out?? So she backed off just 23 seconds over 5000 meters. Okay, sure thing pal.

You are obviously lost and confused. No one saying she can't run 16:30 flat. The point is she ran 16:52...so yes, she was trying and it wasn't just a workout.

My pr in high school was 15:11 for 5000 meters 7 years ago. So if I ran 15:33, you'd call it a workout, eh? That's not a workout. A hard workout would be 16:11, at best. Get a clue dude.

U of M Wolverine wrote:

Soooo wrote:

Her speed rating today was 173... She’s been 176-178 the last two efforts. Her coach explicitly said she wasn’t to run all out. But hey buddy, I guess we’ll see in a month when Tuohy runs 16:30 at Sunken Meadow. I’ll gladly bump this thread then.

All out?? So she backed off just 23 seconds over 5000 meters. Okay, sure thing pal.

You are obviously lost and confused. No one saying she can't run 16:30 flat. The point is she ran 16:52...so yes, she was trying and it wasn't just a workout.

My pr in high school was 15:11 for 5000 meters 7 years ago. So if I ran 15:33, you'd call it a workout, eh? That's not a workout. A hard workout would be 16:11, at best. Get a clue dude.

I was exaggerating when I said stroll in the park. Tuohy uses the word “workout” to mean an effort that’s about 20-30 seconds slower than her all out. She runs these “workouts” extremely hard. While this was a race scenario, she does the same kind of effort in practice. Training too hard? You be the judge... it has worked wonders for her so far though.

Good point about Balboa/VC; you may be right.

16:00 only implies 14:24 if you're relying on that 1.11 factor, and as you already showed, she's been a ways ahead of that --even in races where it looks like she took it easy, like today's.

There's a lot to suggest she might be 10 or 15 seconds ahead of that multiple already, in which case maybe her (prospective) 16-flat would be more in line with a 14:35-40.

Is she *that* good? Yeah, very possibly.

Is she *better* than all those guys? Obviously, that depends on what you mean, and how you choose to look at it.

Clearly, in *absolute* terms, she's not. Just as clearly, in *relative* terms to all other girls who've ever raced in US high-schools, you're Goddamn right she is.

She's *gigantically* better, compared to history, than any guy who's ever raced here either.

And she's therefore gigantically better, compared to *guys'* times, than any girl who's ever raced.

Like I said, she's off the charts. To hold her to a 1.11 multiple of guys' times is clearly too conservative.

Before she's done, she might be more like 1.07, or something absurd like that.

Xcxcxc101 wrote:

Her sprints off the starting line were not strides - they were sprint form- it was kinda weird to watch - as you won’t see things like that at a college meet.

What does this mean?

Like I said, she's off the charts. To hold her to a 1.11 multiple of guys' times is clearly too conservative.

Before she's done, she might be more like 1.07, or something absurd like that.

You somewhat mix up the logic of the conversion factor in some of the things you say.

Rather than parse it all, I'll point out that the 1.11 factor applied to the boys' HS records at 1 mile, 2 mile and 5000m yields marks of 4:19, 9:25 and 15:06 for girls.

Let's see Tuohy approach those times before we say that the factor is too conservative in comparing her to "the guys".

The 1.07 you hypothesize yields 4:09 mile, 9:04 two mile and 14:34 5000m. Um, no.

the maths wrote:

Like I said, she's off the charts. To hold her to a 1.11 multiple of guys' times is clearly too conservative.

Before she's done, she might be more like 1.07, or something absurd like that.

You somewhat mix up the logic of the conversion factor in some of the things you say.

Rather than parse it all, I'll point out that the 1.11 factor applied to the boys' HS records at 1 mile, 2 mile and 5000m yields marks of 4:19, 9:25 and 15:06 for girls.

Let's see Tuohy approach those times before we say that the factor is too conservative in comparing her to "the guys".

The 1.07 you hypothesize yields 4:09 mile, 9:04 two mile and 14:34 5000m. Um, no.

I believe she's ready to tackle the 1.11 converted times at the 2 mile and 5000. Webb's converted time is going to be difficult.

An article released last night about Tuohy's performance:

https://www.lohud.com/story/sports/high-school/xcountry/2018/10/13/cross-country-another-week-and-another-course-record-tuohy/1635531002/

"Tuohy has followed Diglio’s directives for sometimes holding back this season to save herself for certain meets. Sunken Meadow marked a slight plan detour."

"Diglio had expected Tuohy, last year’s New Balance Cross Nationals girls champion, to run something akin to a hard for 30 seconds, then easy 30, then hard, etc. But after she finished Cardiac Hill, the Gatorade national girls athlete of the year had too much left."

So she didn't do a workout. All the numbers line up that she ran a race effort. I mean she still smashed the course record by 50 seconds is this not good enough??

According to the article she ran 2 mile as a workout and then felt good enough to run the last downhill mile hard. So, call it whatever you want (super hard workout?), but it was definitely not race effort from start to finish.

I guess I can join the nitpickers. Perhaps she did not throttle back the last mile after the hill. But we have no idea how hard she was pushing the first two miles - and if the intent was to alternate hard and easy it could very well have been a less than all out effort. But we should all remember what they mean by "workout". They don't mean an easier than normal pace throughout the course. They usually focus on working specific sections of the course very hard, and easing back on others. I had read for this meet the effort was supposed to be on the two difficult hills.

On a related subject we can see the team as a whole is still not where they need to be to compete at NXN with the top teams.

"Classmate Haleigh Morales, who has been nursing a hip injury and may be held out of next week's meet, ran 19:29.17 for seventh place. Fellow junior Catherine Ruffino (20;24.16) was 13th; Freshman Gianna Dellamedaglia (21:03.01) was 29th and freshman Cara Fagelman (21:03.65) was 30th."

Even with the exceptionally fast first place runner, the spread between 1 and 2, and 2 and 3, 3 and 4/5 is too large at this time. My guess is they would need to tighten 1 to 5 up by at least one minute.

Duane wrote:

On a related subject we can see the team as a whole is still not where they need to be to compete at NXN with the top teams.

"Classmate Haleigh Morales, who has been nursing a hip injury and may be held out of next week's meet, ran 19:29.17 for seventh place. Fellow junior Catherine Ruffino (20;24.16) was 13th; Freshman Gianna Dellamedaglia (21:03.01) was 29th and freshman Cara Fagelman (21:03.65) was 30th."

Even with the exceptionally fast first place runner, the spread between 1 and 2, and 2 and 3, 3 and 4/5 is too large at this time. My guess is they would need to tighten 1 to 5 up by at least one minute.

Keller was missing from the lineup