OMG: Eliud Kipchoge just said he thinks Rupp can break the World Record in the marathon

Counterargument:

M800: Rudisha is by far the best ever and wont run at peak forever. Downside: USA has weak bench. Murphy has potential, but who else?

MSteeple: Jager is very competitive and a single bad day by one Kenyan away from gold. Jager may yet improve. Downside:none. Jager and Coburn may well trigger new interest in the steeplechase.

W Steeple: Coburn same as Jager and just missed silver by a fraction. Downside: Coburn probably near her best already.

Marathon: Rupp can win some big races and probably has 2:04 potential. Downside: Every kid on a streetcorner in east Africa seems to be able to run 2:05 these days.

1500: Centro and Simpson will keep having success and I think they have the right stuff to become mainstream sports heroes. Both need a good publicist. Good looks,Olympic medals, a family story, and humility to boot. US has a fairly deep bench at this distance and it is popular among young athletes. Downside: none.

5k: Centro can succeed here and Chelimo shows great promise. Possibly more medals ahead. Rowbury seems made for the 5k and needs to move up. Downside: Weak bench.

10k: Doesn't look good.

madmandoc wrote:

Counterargument:

M800: Rudisha is by far the best ever and wont run at peak forever. Downside: USA has weak bench. Murphy has potential, but who else?

Ummm, 1:43 teenager? Or the 1:43 23-year-old who made the OG final a year or two after returning to the sport?

madmandoc wrote:

5k: Centro can succeed here and Chelimo shows great promise. Possibly more medals ahead. Rowbury seems made for the 5k and needs to move up. Downside: Weak bench.

10k: Doesn't look good.

Jenkins, Hill, Mead

don't get into this African born crap. That is not what this is about.

Clearly Kipchoge was being nice to Galen as he usually is a nice guy. That comes from the side of him as a motivator and coach to up coming runners in Kenya. True that Galen displayed a lot of aptitude in that race but to run a 2:03 is another thing. Further more its like he was being paced throughout until he fell off towards the end. To run a world record, you have to be able to run and push on your own from at least 30km. The same would have been said of Stephen Kiprotich, Abel Kirui or last year's world champion, Ghebreslassie but we all know Abel as the fastest of the three as a PB of 2:05 while Stephen has 2:06 and Ghebreslassie has 2:07.

Hey former math teacher and spelling bee champion who understands the sport.

Please check the MATH on this excerpt from your LRC marathon analysis:

and his final 12.195k was 32:29 – that’s 4:41.1 mile pace (2:02:49 marathon pace).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Hey math teacher:

Please do the math again. That is 26:39 10k pace…which is about 4:17.4 mile pace. It is not 4:41.1 mile pace.

Did you think I would not notice your stupid math error?

You are wrong again.

I did notice it.

I am showing it to you now.

Have a nice day.

This, this, this. I believe in Galen's ability and AlSal's assessment of his potential. This was his second marathon training for 5-10k and marathon. Training just for marathon? He runs 2:05. I mean, he ran 26:44.

Conto wrote:

El g said something similar about Webb.

Honestly, why not? If we've seen one thing from these games, it's that the Americans need to believe and dream big.

Rupp should be thinking wr. So should Clayton Murphy. Guys like true and Jenkins should be thinking gold in 2020. Why not?

This Olympiad showed me that the mental barrier against the Africans has been shattered.

Ill take that bet at 10 to 1 and Ill give you my $1000 now , you can invest it over the next decade or so or whenever rupp retires to make it grow, to ease the pain of the payoff in the end .

PS. That being said, I'll offer 100 to 1 odds to anyone who wants to bet up to $1000 that he'll do it (although my wife probably wont' let me make that bet). He's never broken 2:10. He'd have to run the entire race at 441 mile pace. I think Rupp had 4 miles at that pace today.[/quote]

WRs don't happen every day or every year in the marathon, but it has been broken three times since 2011. I'm sure that Kipchoge wants really badly to be the one to do it next, to seal is legacy. He should be capable of it.

Rupp much less so, but I might spot him a bit more than 1% chance. He ran within 20 seconds of his 10,000 American record in a hot, championship race. There's a chance he could be as successful as another track runner turned marathoner, Haile Gebrselassie.

While Geb's PR of 26:22 is much faster, his first Olympic Gold in '96 in similar conditions was 27:08, and then 27:18 in Sydney. He went on to break the marathon world record twice, in Berlin in '07 (2:04:26) at the age of 34, and again in Berlin the next year in 2:03:59. It did take him five marathons in five years (plus one DNF in London) to get there. Rupp is still in year one of his marathoning, at 30 years old.

Rupp will never match the track accomplishments of one of the GOAT, but I think he should have the wheels to run under 2:04, possibly 2:02:57 if everything went perfect. If he can stay healthy, he should have at least another 5 to 6 years to take cracks at the record. The biggest issue is that Kipchoge or someone else is likely to lower the record even more in the next year or two.

I wonder when his first big city marathon will be? Should be fun to watch.

rojo wrote:

That's the ultimate compliment. I about fell out of my chair when he said that even though I know Kenyans often make blustery statements to the press.

Rojo

PS. That being said, I'll offer 100 to 1 odds to anyone who wants to bet up to $1000 that he'll do it (although my wife probably wont' let me make that bet). He's never broken 2:10. He'd have to run the entire race at 441 mile pace. I think Rupp had 4 miles at that pace today.

re: "Kenyans often make blustery statements to the press" - This is correct, except when it comes to Ethiopians, the Kenyans had made overly complementary statements about other athletes. I can definitely see Rupp running much faster in a race better circumstances. I don't quite fully understand why having pacers makes such a big difference, but it does. I know from my own (no where elite) marathons that it takes energy to focus on pace. and I have heard some really good marathoners that you can almost zone out for half the race with pacers. We have all seen many 2:3/4 types not make the podium in non paced races. Although, I admit that don't understand why it makes such a big difference especially when you see Berlin and Rotterdam winners actually DNF in global championship. The point I am trying to make is, Rupp is much better than a 2:08 marathoner, his 26:44 10K alone says 2:06. Albeit I can't see him ever coming close to breaking the world record; the marathon world records is as strong as the 5k and 10K track records to add perceptive.

No Mas runner bob wrote:

Idontreallyknow wrote:

He's ran 2 marathons!

Tactical Champs marathons in hot weather. Rupp would good for sub206 in Berlin rn.

... 8 days after running a 27 minute 10,000. Probably would have been able to get the silver if he hadn't run that 10.

Don't argue with rojo. He is never wrong. Don't you know that by now?

forthekeeuds wrote:

8 days after running a 27 minute 10,000. Probably would have been able to get the silver if he hadn't run that 10.

If he had skipped the training for a sub 50 400m, which didn't help him in the least.

Lady Math of the Ivy League wrote:

Hey former math teacher and spelling bee champion who understands the sport.

Please check the MATH on this excerpt from your LRC marathon analysis:

"and his final 12.195k was 32:29 – that’s 4:41.1 mile pace (2:02:49 marathon pace)."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Hey math teacher:

Please do the math again. That is 26:39 10k pace…which is about 4:17.4 mile pace. It is not 4:41.1 mile pace.

I haven't checked the splits. Are you saying that Rupp ran 32:29 for the last 12.195k of the marathon, which is 4:17.4 mile pace?

If so, what pace did Kipchoge run for the last 12.195k... 4:07 / 25:35?

Are you sure about that?

Actually, El G did not say something similar about Webb. He said that he might be his greatest competition in the future.

Rupp will pop a 2:05 any day now.

Hahahahahahahahahahahaja!

Dude is probably going to have a few more takers. I wonder if his book is still open?