RunWild wrote:LetsRun are assuming this will be a 27:15 race allowing Edris to come in and steal 3rd from the field. However, I think Kamworor and Karoki will push the pace hard and only Mo will be able to hang on to them. Reminiscent of how Tadese vs Bekele ran it out at the 2009 WC 10000m.
I agree about Farah and Kamworor, but feel that Bedan Karoki or Paul Tanui will get 3rd.
I also wouldn't be shocked if Rupp DNF'ed
you are damn smart !!
DC Wonk wrote:
RunWild wrote:Re-watch the 2003 World Championships 10000m during the Paris Heatwave. Sub-13 second-half to go into the high 26s
The competitors in the this race is not the same group in the 2003, and the Africans have shown no ability in the past two years to run a coordinated, disciplined race to beat Farah.
I still say the weather will be factor, and the first half of the race will not be faster 13:40.
I believe the Paris race opened up in just under 14 minutes, then Ethiopia burned Kenya with a sub 13 second half.
13:40 is not a bad time to be going through 5000m, actually allows you to only go 13:20 in order to break 27, something I think Kamworor will have no issue doing off of that pace. I wouldn't be shocked if the splits are 13:40 and 13:10. Running 13:00 off of 14:00 is another story though.
While you might be right about the recent Africans showing no ability to run co-ordinated and disciplined, Kamworor and Karoki did just that at WXC.
DC Wonk wrote:
I still say the weather will be factor, and the first half of the race will not be faster 13:40.
That would suck.
13:20 or better would be more reasonable.
Yes, you owe me pal as you would have lost your a$$ if you had bet me. Thanks weasel.
Not a joke! wrote:
Ok, how much are you willing to bet? Not a joke as I'm seriously interested in betting you as I believe he won't medal. Please respond if you're serious.
paularatchet wrote:1Mo
2Galen
3Kamworor
Rupp will medal I'm willing to bet anyone.
For a Beijing comparison, here are the results from the 2008 Olympics:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Athletics_at_the_2008_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_10,000_metres
Bekele 27:01.11 (Farah ran 27:01.13)
Sihine 27:02.77
M. Kogo 27:04.11
M. Masai 27:04.11
Tadese 27:05.11
Haile 27:06.68
8th was 27:23
27:43 would have been 14th, just slower than what Rupp ran there in 2008
Today seemed to be a consistent race from the start. 13:40 compared to 13:48 that day, and at 6k at 16:22 compared to 16:33 that day
In short: they closed it out a lot better in 2008 than they did today.
RunWild wrote:
In short: they closed it out a lot better in 2008 than they did today.
They ran the last 6k at 26:10 pace in 2008.
I can't help but think that Rupp's lack or racing this year cost him a chance at a medal. He barely raced at all compared to Farah who was no doubt razor sharp. I'm not sure he could have challenged Farah, but I bet the gap would have been less than half as much if he had done a regular summer schedule.
Totally disagree with your logic rusty.Im with not a joke! I didn't believe he'd medal either and don't think he will next summer. I'll bet anyone on this board.
Rusty busty wrote:
I can't help but think that Rupp's lack or racing this year cost him a chance at a medal. He barely raced at all compared to Farah who was no doubt razor sharp. I'm not sure he could have challenged Farah, but I bet the gap would have been less than half as much if he had done a regular summer schedule.