8 UK athletes (inc. Farah) release blood test data

This. End thread.

Since there is a lot of discussion of Farah's progression, I decided to go look. Using the progression list from his DL page, here are his progressions for the 3000 and 5000.

For the 3000, his PB had a big drop from 2005 to 2006, when it fell by almost over 20 seconds. After that, his time is fairly consistent, as seen by the very small standard deviation of a second and a half.

2001 - 8:09.24

2005 - 8:00.9h

2006 - 7:38.15

2007 - 7:41.86

2008 - 7:39.55

2009 - 7:39.02

2010 - 7:40.75

2011 - 7:40.15

2013 - 7:36.85

2015 - 7:38.22

Average 2006: 7:39.3 minutes

Standard Deviation: 1.6 seconds

As in the 3000, he took almost 20 seconds off his PB for the 5000 from 2005 to 2006. However, his times are not as tightly bunched as in the 3000. His three fastest times since 2006 -- 2010/11/12 -- are all close to a standard deviation below his average fastest times since 2006

2003 - 13:38.41

2005 - 13:30.53

2006 - 13:09.40

2007 - 13:07.00

2008 - 13:08.11

2009 - 13:09.14

2010 - 12:57.94

2011 - 12:53.11

2012 - 12:56.98

2013 - 13:05.88

2014 - 13:23.42

2015 - 13:11.77

Average 2006-2015: 13:06.2 minutes

Standard Deviation: 8.7 seconds

From these, it looks like he had two breakthrough years, 2006 and 2010. It also appears that his progression was anything but incremental and constant. This is obvious from the graphs of his yearly pbs.

You can see the rest of his progressions here:

http://monaco.diamondleague.com/athletes/14189197.html

2006 - 2008 he was 23 - 25 years old. During these years he made some real progress in the 5000, running sub 13.10 in three consecutive years after previously failing to break 13.30.

During the same period he ran seven 1500s, ranging in times between 3.38 to 3.47.

As a 25 year old with these stats, what were the odds of him going on to run 3.28 five years later??

There has never been anyone like this guy.

Great list

So what you're saying is that after he hit 30, 5/10k man Mo has only ever been beaten over 1500m by 3 specialist, all of whom have one gold at world level in that event.

And in history only 5 other people have ever run faster over 1500m than our late-blooming 5/10k man.

You are aware that just about every 1500 on the European circuit over the last 25 years or so have had pacemakers aren't you? And in all those hundreds of races with all those 1500m specialists including all that EPO-era of the mid-to-late 90s, less than 10 have ever run faster than a 31year old 5/10k runner

Agreed. He's making way too much sense in one post.

Talking that much sense here is exhibiting extremely suspicious values (i.e. intelligence). Cali Boy must be cheating somehow. Or at the very least, operating in a grey area.

Further analysis shows his posts improved in 2011. He claims he's been writing at altitude since then. But we've all heard that one before.

Nick ran 4:01 at 17.

Curiosity got the better of me, so here are Farah’s 1500 & 10000 progressions.

For the 1500, the trend is down, but with there are more big jumps than in the 3 and 5k. From 2003/2005, it falls 4 ½ seconds, then stays much the same until 2009 it falls 4 ½ seconds. The final fall is in 2013, when it falls almost six seconds. This is at Monaco, where there is also a jump in performance around 2010. Even if was think the Monaco effect is three seconds, his last jump in time is almost 3 seconds. This at age 30.

(I didn’t use his time for 2007, 3:46, as it is clearly an outlier.)

2003 - 3:43.17

2005 - 3:38.62

2006 - 3:38.02

2007 - 3:46.50

2008 - 3:39.66

2009 - 3:33.98

2012 - 3:34.66

2013 - 3:28.81 - 3: 31.81

2015 - 3:28.93 - 3.31.93

Average 2003-2015 = 3:35.8

Standard Deviation =5.1 seconds

For the 10000, Farah's record is more complicated. He ran his first 10k in 2008. In 2010, he lowered his PB by 15 ½ seconds. Since then, his yearly PB has been around that time twice, in 2012 and 2013. In 2011 and 2015, his yearly PB was almost 40 seconds faster. In other words, since 2010, his yearly PB’s have two clusters, almost 40 seconds apart.

(I ignored his time for 2014, 28:08, since it is clearly an outlier.)

2008 - 27:44.54

2010 - 27:28.86

2011 - 26:46.57

2012 - 27:30.42

2013 - 27:21.71

2015 - 26:50.97

Average 2010/12/13 = 27:27

Average 2011/15 = 26:49

I will leave it to the readers to decide what, if anything, these numbers say about how normal or abnormal Farah's progression as a runner has been.

Which blood tests? The WADA tests? Or the tests administered by private chemists and doctors hired by Nike?

Soprano wrote:

I was clicking through each athletes' graph and then just burst out laughing when I switched to Abderrahim Goumri. The non-suspicious results are straight lines or small mole hills. Goumri's is a freaking roller coaster.

Goumri was training at altitude, the numbers would go bonkers too. Which is why dopers love "altitude camps" before big meets. They can dope and bury the artifacts of doping in the fact they were at altitude.

If you want to have lots of confidence in the data, figure out their whereabouts for the test data. If an athlete was at altitude and their numbers didn't go bonkers, well, that's a positive too.

Data that is too normal is a positive too. In intense training blocks, the scores should vary. Sometimes they don't. Some of Armstrong's scores and cyclist Chris Horner's scores are both good examples.

Is the drop down box not working for anyone else? (Chrome / Edge / IE / Firefox)

I only get Farah's data :-/

nbrowne1 wrote:

Is the drop down box not working for anyone else? (Chrome / Edge / IE / Firefox)

I only get Farah's data :-/

It's because the article isn't supposed to be available outside the paywall but for some reason that link works but not the dynamic content.

Same problem... wrote:

It's because the article isn't supposed to be available outside the paywall but for some reason that link works but not the dynamic content.

It's not working for me now, although it was working this morning.

Same problem... wrote:

It's because the article isn't supposed to be available outside the paywall but for some reason that link works but not the dynamic content.

Thanks.

In the 5000, his PBs are also bimodal.

In his fastest years, 2011-13, his yearly PBs averaged 12.56.

In his "slower" years, 2006-2009, and 2013, his yearly PBs averaged 13:08.5.

That is almost a 15 second difference. Moreover, each cluster is fairly tightly bunched.

Again, it is hard to know what to make of his times. Since they are times from races, they may not be accurately measure his real potential. This is especially true for races that Farah won. In those races, he only has to run faster than the second place finisher.

Mo is clean.

1) He is dominating now because the level in the 5/10 is lower than before

(this is due to less doping in general and some of the talent flux to the marathon) - not because he is running crazy times like KB or ELG.

2) His progression is not suspicous either. It is the cumulative effects of many

years of training.

3) He comes across as an honest guy.

With less EPO use in the future 12:55 will again be considered a superfast time.

#BoycottNike

#LetNickRun

Nick came 4th at world juniors. Mo came 10th. In a traditionally weaker event at that level.

1) So the standard for abnormal performance improvements after the age of 28 in a previously mid-pack runner is whether or not they are faster than the two greatest in history? Seems reasonable

You might want to check the all time indoor 2 mile list btw.

2) pre-28 : never better than 6th in 11 years of racing at world level

Post-28 : unbeatable 5x World and Olympic gold medals in 5 and 10. 8th fastest man in history over 1500m

Seems like a pretty smooth progression to me. No late career step change that I can see

3) ok so to get this one straight smiley people don't dope?

You never met Marion Jones then I take it?

yyy wrote:

Mo is clean.

1) He is dominating now because the level in the 5/10 is lower than before

(this is due to less doping in general and some of the talent flux to the marathon) - not because he is running crazy times like KB or ELG..

There isn't less doping going on. Recent events have mad that clear.