Boohoo someone ran faster than me.
Boohoo someone ran faster than me.
Oooohhhh, it's a race?Were those guys in the mid-80s racers? Was Goucher a racer? Ritz? Solinsky? These kids can run that fast too if they just make up their mind that they want to hurt for a few extra minutes.They run balls out during the season trying to break course records, then they get to the big show they act like they're going to be the one with the best kick, and when they don't win (a 98% chance for nearly everyone) they're left with a shitty place and a shitty time. And a bunch of "what ifs".It's up to them. Run slow and probably lose, or run fast and probably lose. Running fast always helps dealing with a loss.
I look at other race results wrote:
and Cheserek was capable of 14:30, and Verzbicas 14:20. Yet both barely broke 15 their senior year. What you don't understand is that this is a RACE, and the top runners in the field are RACERS. They don't care about times AT ALL. The 4:31-4:20 Fisher race you talked about? It would have been 4:31-4:28 had Fisher not kicked the last 200 in 26 seconds. That's what we'll probably see this year: a few guys up front running ONLY at 15:20ish pace, and then the guys with SPEED kicking the last 600 to get right above 15:00. This ain't Fairyland, where 14:43 grows on trees. It's not happening.
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here we go wrote:
These kids can run that fast too if they just make up their mind that they want to hurt for a few extra minutes.
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Its technically less time hurting, but I get your point.
But the best runners in this field are the best RACERS. Who's going to run away from Fisher or Maton, Dressel or Hunter? NO ONE. The guys without kicks either aren't in shape to challenge the best, like Mantz or Ostberg, or simply AREN'T good enough. I GUARANTEE you that the four I mentioned above are absolutely confident in their kicks. and since they're the ALPHAS of this race, the field is going to let them dictate.Go finish your homework, kid.
here we go wrote:
Oooohhhh, it's a race?
Were those guys in the mid-80s racers? Was Goucher a racer? Ritz? Solinsky? These kids can run that fast too if they just make up their mind that they want to hurt for a few extra minutes.
They run balls out during the season trying to break course records, then they get to the big show they act like they're going to be the one with the best kick, and when they don't win (a 98% chance for nearly everyone) they're left with a shitty place and a shitty time. And a bunch of "what ifs".
It's up to them. Run slow and probably lose, or run fast and probably lose. Running fast always helps dealing with a loss.
I look at other race results wrote:and Cheserek was capable of 14:30, and Verzbicas 14:20. Yet both barely broke 15 their senior year. What you don't understand is that this is a RACE, and the top runners in the field are RACERS. They don't care about times AT ALL. The 4:31-4:20 Fisher race you talked about? It would have been 4:31-4:28 had Fisher not kicked the last 200 in 26 seconds. That's what we'll probably see this year: a few guys up front running ONLY at 15:20ish pace, and then the guys with SPEED kicking the last 600 to get right above 15:00. This ain't Fairyland, where 14:43 grows on trees. It's not happening.
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I'll take Fisher in the 14:50-55 range
I look at other race results wrote:
But the best runners in this field are the best RACERS. Who's going to run away from Fisher or Maton, Dressel or Hunter? NO ONE. The guys without kicks either aren't in shape to challenge the best, like Mantz or Ostberg, or simply AREN'T good enough. I GUARANTEE you that the four I mentioned above are absolutely confident in their kicks. and since they're the ALPHAS of this race, the field is going to let them dictate.
Go finish your homework, kid.
here we go wrote:Oooohhhh, it's a race?
Were those guys in the mid-80s racers? Was Goucher a racer? Ritz? Solinsky? These kids can run that fast too if they just make up their mind that they want to hurt for a few extra minutes.
They run balls out during the season trying to break course records, then they get to the big show they act like they're going to be the one with the best kick, and when they don't win (a 98% chance for nearly everyone) they're left with a shitty place and a shitty time. And a bunch of "what ifs".
It's up to them. Run slow and probably lose, or run fast and probably lose. Running fast always helps dealing with a loss.
ALPHAS of the race! Haha!
If someone runs faster than my plan then they are welcome to lead for awhile. If they don't, and no one else does, then I'm in the lead immediately. If I'm the 40th runner in the field, and no one runs faster than my pace, then I will be leading the race all the way, and will beat most of those who were supposedly faster than me.
Not so slow wrote:
If someone runs faster than my plan then they are welcome to lead for awhile. If they don't, and no one else does, then I'm in the lead immediately. If I'm the 40th runner in the field, and no one runs faster than my pace, then I will be leading the race all the way, and will beat most of those who were supposedly faster than me.
This. ^^^^
"ALPHAS"....what a joke
If they were true ALPHAS, they'd take the race out like MEN (not American men though, because they take it out slow) and see who lasts the longest.I should be calling you the kid, since you think sub 15:00s don't grow on trees. They used to though...oh, how they used to...But then the 90s came. That's probably before your time.
I look at other race results wrote:
But the best runners in this field are the best RACERS. Who's going to run away from Fisher or Maton, Dressel or Hunter? NO ONE. The guys without kicks either aren't in shape to challenge the best, like Mantz or Ostberg, or simply AREN'T good enough. I GUARANTEE you that the four I mentioned above are absolutely confident in their kicks. and since they're the ALPHAS of this race, the field is going to let them dictate.
Go finish your homework, kid.
here we go wrote:Oooohhhh, it's a race?
Were those guys in the mid-80s racers? Was Goucher a racer? Ritz? Solinsky? These kids can run that fast too if they just make up their mind that they want to hurt for a few extra minutes.
They run balls out during the season trying to break course records, then they get to the big show they act like they're going to be the one with the best kick, and when they don't win (a 98% chance for nearly everyone) they're left with a shitty place and a shitty time. And a bunch of "what ifs".
It's up to them. Run slow and probably lose, or run fast and probably lose. Running fast always helps dealing with a loss.
Yeah I've been trolling the whole time. I always find randomly capitalizing words really annoying, as well as the tone of those kinds of posts in general, so I thought I'd try it.No way the race doesn't get out hard. People know Fisher and Maton have big kicks; they're going to do something. I'm hesitant to throw out a really fast time though. Maybe 14:50?Sorry if I annoyed you too much.
here we go wrote:
If they were true ALPHAS, they'd take the race out like MEN (not American men though, because they take it out slow) and see who lasts the longest.
I should be calling you the kid, since you think sub 15:00s don't grow on trees. They used to though...oh, how they used to...
But then the 90s came. That's probably before your time.
I look at other race results wrote:But the best runners in this field are the best RACERS. Who's going to run away from Fisher or Maton, Dressel or Hunter? NO ONE. The guys without kicks either aren't in shape to challenge the best, like Mantz or Ostberg, or simply AREN'T good enough. I GUARANTEE you that the four I mentioned above are absolutely confident in their kicks. and since they're the ALPHAS of this race, the field is going to let them dictate.
Go finish your homework, kid.
I look at other race results wrote:
Yeah I've been trolling the whole time. I always find randomly capitalizing words really annoying, as well as the tone of those kinds of posts in general, so I thought I'd try it.
No way the race doesn't get out hard. People know Fisher and Maton have big kicks; they're going to do something. I'm hesitant to throw out a really fast time though. Maybe 14:50?
Sorry if I annoyed you too much.
here we go wrote:If they were true ALPHAS, they'd take the race out like MEN (not American men though, because they take it out slow) and see who lasts the longest.
I should be calling you the kid, since you think sub 15:00s don't grow on trees. They used to though...oh, how they used to...
But then the 90s came. That's probably before your time.
9/10 Nice
markitdown wrote:
I look at other race results wrote:Yeah I've been trolling the whole time. I always find randomly capitalizing words really annoying, as well as the tone of those kinds of posts in general, so I thought I'd try it.
No way the race doesn't get out hard. People know Fisher and Maton have big kicks; they're going to do something. I'm hesitant to throw out a really fast time though. Maybe 14:50?
Sorry if I annoyed you too much.
9/10 Nice
This needed to be quoted again... not for the rating.
None of these guys could beat Ches or LV....that said, hope it's a good race and not slow. As has been stated before, it's ludicrous that the race is so late on the calendar, three weeks after NCAA Div. 1!
At this point in the year, it's really a matter of who has trained/raced the smartest to be ready for this race. It's hard not to get sick or be on the down-slope of racing.
Hopefully we'll get some guys that are willing to take some risks and try to break the race up before the final downhill. I agree that the winning time will likely be in the 14:53-14:58 range.
BTW, our boys' race preview is now up. Should be a great one.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/12/2014-foot-locker-finals-boys-preview-race-ages/
Didn't Maton break Rupp or Pre Oregon State meet record by 10 seconds? he wins by 4-5 seconds.
Wait, but didn't Rupp lose to a guy with some heart? I bet Maton will do the same.
Pretty much forget about fast times Saturday.
Pacific storm hitting the NW & Northern Cal moving southward, San Diego expecting a good drenching tomorrow, possibly continuing thru Saturday morning.
Last time the course was like this, Verzibicus won in approx. 15:00, was 20 sec ahead of second place while running thru mud puddles.
Most likely person to push the pace wouldl be Anna Rohrer. That seems to be her mo. Maybe she breaks 17.
Jonathan Gault wrote:
BTW, our boys' race preview is now up. Should be a great one.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/12/2014-foot-locker-finals-boys-preview-race-ages/
In the article, it mentions that Fisher's best speed rating so far this season was a 203, and he has a lot of catching up to do if he wants to catch Ritz. This is completely not the point of speed ratings and I is impossible to compare speed ratings over time as High school running continues to get more competitive. The ratings are based off of the 'average' runners in the race, and as the average runner gets faster, the top end's ratings decrease. For the sake of comparing two runners from different times, either use their pure times on the same course, or don't do it at all.
Forget about a record. unless someone takes the lead and presses the middle mile after that downhill fast first mile close to 4:30.
Who cares if the winner runs 14:30 or 15:00 its sure to be a hell of a race with the talent in it this year.
In dry conditions its a fast course and a Verzibicus or Cheserek could have easily broke the course record if they felt they had to break away after the first hill to give them the best chance to win.
Too bad Tanner Anderson isn't in this because he would be the one with the fitness as a favorite to benefit from an early separation. And make it a fast race.
The year Reina ran 14:36 it was 4:38 at the mile and a non-favorite pushed the harder middle mile in 4:45 and led until the last 1200 and ended up 6th.
My "close to 4:20" comment was actually for the 1983 race, where they went through in 4:22. Matt Giusto won the race in 14:54. Here's a crappy video with some shots from the race (at 19:30 into the video the commentator mentions how fast the pace is..."4:22 first mile"):http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BapIDop7DWk
The Legends of Foot Locker wrote:
The field is set now. This is one of the deepest senior classes in history. The top 3 from last year's finals are back. In fact, 9 of last year's top 16 are back. Throw in a couple serious junior contenders, and you've got the *potential* for the greatest national championship race ever at Balboa Park (see 1985 results below).
To achieve that potential, however, we're going to need some boys to man-up and take on some risk. This can be a race for the ages. Is someone going to try to run the 4:02.02 legs out of Fisher, or the 4:03.23 legs out of Maton? Dressel was the man that went for it last year. He made his move the second time up the big hill, strung everyone out, and fell just a few seconds shy of the win (beating Maton by 9 seconds in the process). But is anyone willing to push the pace earlier? Can they get to the mile under 4:30, continue to push the middle of the race, and put the pressure on the speedsters?
Let's get some detailed predictions going.
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The 1985 race produced the still-standing course record (14:36) and had 9 boys under 15:00. Reina went out close to 4:20.
1 14:36 Reuben Reina 12 SO John Jay San Antonio, TX
2 14:41 Mark Mastalir 12 W Jesuit El Dorado Hills, CA
3 14:50 Mark Dani 12 W Valhalla El Cajon, CA
4 14:51 Jonathan Hume 12 MW Green Mountain Lakewood, CO
5 14:52 Robert Henes 12 MW Woodbridge Cuyahoga Falls, OH
6 14:53 Troy Maddux 12 MW Woodland Long Point, IL
7 14:53 Jon Hatley 12 MW West Plains West Plains, MO
8 14:54 Marc Davis 11 W San Diego San Diego, CA
9 14:56 Eric Mastalir 12 W Jesuit El Dorado Hills, CA
10 15:03 Glenn Morgan 12 W Del Norte Albuquerque, NM