Why does everybody think Rupp will be succesful at the Marathon?

Also, let's not forget how picky Salazar and Rupp are with the races Rupp runs. When he's on the road the road would have to be in stellar condition, the city must have a low crime rate, zero pollution, and perfect weather. Just think about it

DaveF wrote:

Like do you seriously think Ryan Hall, and Ritz will end their careers with better marathon PB's then he will if he goes to 26.2......your delusional.

God I hate amateur hour.

He "could" run 2:06 but he won't. Mark Nenow ran 27:20 but couldn't break 2:14. Solinsky will never run a marathon of any significance and you know it. Bobby Curtis has only run 2:11. 10k prowess does not mean you're guaranteed to run a great marathon.

dee fee gree wrote:

Solinsky will never run a marathon of any significance and you know it.

Maybe not a 2:05, but I think Chris will run Olympic trials and we shouldn't be surprised if he finishes top 3. Considering his one goal is to make the Olympic team, he shouldn't be discounted.

NJ Possible wrote:

dee fee gree wrote:

Solinsky will never run a marathon of any significance and you know it.

Maybe not a 2:05, but I think Chris will run Olympic trials and we shouldn't be surprised if he finishes top 3. Considering his one goal is to make the Olympic team, he shouldn't be discounted.

When is he going to qualify?

stick with eharmony wrote:

I don't think he will break 2:08, ever. If you look at his progression from the mile to 5k to the 10k, it's pretty clear he would struggle at the Marathon because he lacks the hard core endurance required to run sub 2:08.

I can't say how successful on the biggest stage since the world class standard in now 2:08 just to be considered elite. However, any athlete who can run a 26:44 10K and a 60:30 half marathon has probably done 20 mile training runs at a 2:08 pace. There is almost no doubt Rupp can run a 2:08 marathon, but the better question is can Rupp run a 2:05 marathon and run with the leaders in a WMM?

TrackCoach wrote:

stick with eharmony wrote:

I don't think he will break 2:08, ever. If you look at his progression from the mile to 5k to the 10k, it's pretty clear he would struggle at the Marathon because he lacks the hard core endurance required to run sub 2:08.

I can't say how successful on the biggest stage since the world class standard in now 2:08 just to be considered elite. However, any athlete who can run a 26:44 10K and a 60:30 half marathon has probably done 20 mile training runs at a 2:08 pace. There is almost no doubt Rupp can run a 2:08 marathon, but the better question is can Rupp run a 2:05 marathon and run with the leaders in a WMM?

I forgot to add that Rupp's biomech efficiency is well suited for the marathon especially London or Berlin for example. Also, when Rupp ran the NYC half he only committed to it a few weeks before the event and wasn't targeting a fast time. I would not be surprised if Rupp debuted with a 2:05, in fact, AlSal would not allow him to run a marathon unless his training clearly indicates a 2:05.

Nope to Dope wrote:

He will not break 2:11 if he chooses to debut in New York. New York pays Americans better than any other marathon but the course does not lead to success as a debut course. Many Top Americans have made this mistake.

Here's something I take issue with. How can you define this as a mistake? Running is Rupp's (and all other big name Americans who debut at NYC) job. This is how they feed their families and pay their mortgages. Who are you to say it's a mistake to trade off a slower marathon debut for more money? The only real argument to be made here is that a slower debut in NYC could mean less marathon $$$ in future marathons, but it's not like American debuts are guaranteed to blow up at NYC OR run great on a fast course like Chicago. These guys are free to make their own decisions about this stuff, and the money at NYC is obviously good enough to pull them from a potentially faster debut, otherwise they would go somewhere else.

Professional running is a business. Money is, and should be, the bottom line for professionals. Enough of this amateurish mindset of devaluing the potential to maximize earnings in exchange for a better PR. Good luck trying to pay rent with a better PR when you make less money doing it.

Bad Wigins wrote:

Rupp will never be good at marathons because he's not naturally skinny. The fast marathoners all grew up starving so they have a lightweight bone structure.

You have a effed up idea of Kenya. Anyway:

Paul Tergat 5'11, 137 lbs

Galen Rupp 5'11 138 lbs

dee fee gree wrote:

He "could" run 2:06 but he won't. Mark Nenow ran 27:20 but couldn't break 2:14. Solinsky will never run a marathon of any significance and you know it. Bobby Curtis has only run 2:11. 10k prowess does not mean you're guaranteed to run a great marathon.

Nice selective memory.

Sub-28 10k AR holders and their marathon bests:

Frank Shorter 27:51/2:10:30 (AR)

Steve Prefontaine 27:43/N.A.

Craig Virgin 27:29/2:10:26

Alberto Salazar 27:25/2:08:52 (AR)

Mark Nenow 27:20/nothing listed on IAAF

Meb Keflezighi 27:13/2:08:37

Chris Solinsky 26:59/N.A.

Galen Rupp 26:44/N.A.

All non-African-born sub-27:30 runners who've contested the marathon, according to IAAF:

Antonio Pinto 27:12/2:06:36

Fabian Roncero 27:14/2:07:23

Carlos Lopes 27:17/2:07:12

Jon Brown 27:18/2:09:31

Armando Quintanilla 27:18/2:15:40 (9 years after his 10k... Damn it Armando, you're spoiling my point)

Dieter Baumann 27:21/2:30:00 (at 42 y.o., post-retirement)

Jose Rios 27:22 2:07:42

Dathan Ritzenhein 27:22 2:07:47

Antonio Martins 27:22 2:13:32

Vincent Rousseau 27:23 2:07:20

Bobby Curtis 27:24 2:11:20

Alberto Salazar 27:25 2:08:something

Kamiel Maase 27:26 2:08:21

Christopher Thompson 27:27 2:11:19

Marilson Dos Santos 27:28 2:06:34

Tim Nelson 27:28 2:14:09

Matt Tegenkamp 27:28 2:12:28

Juan Luis Barrios 27:28 2:14:10

Craig Virgin 27:29 2:10:26

*note 27:2x is not 26:44

Is Galen too big & fat?

Galen Rupp 5'11" 138

-

Wilson Kipsang 2:03:22 5'11.5" 137

Paul Tergat 2:04:55 5'11.5" 137

Jaouad Gharib 2:05:27 5'9" 146

Ryan Hall 2:06:17 5'10" 130

Derek Clayton 2:08:34 6'1.5" 159

Alberto Salazar 2:08:xx 5'11 141

Rod Dixon 2:08:59 6'1 154

I think there's a big, big chance Galen will run 2:05-2:08. Call it 80%. 18% he never breaks 2:09:00 (including never attempts it), 2% he breaks 2:05:00.

rojo wrote:

Do you realize that a non-African born runner has never ever broken 2:06 in the history of the world? The fastest non-Africa born time in history belongs to Ronaldo da Costa who ran 2:06:05. Toshinari Takaoka ran 2:06:16 and Ryan Hall 2:06:17.

-Rojo

Do you realize Galen Rupp is the fastest non-African long distance runner ever?

ShaolinSoldier wrote:

...

I think there's a big, big chance Galen will run 2:05-2:08. Call it 80%. 18% he never breaks 2:09:00 (including never attempts it), 2% he breaks 2:05:00.

CORRECT!