Looking at the teams it really only looks like there are two maybe three contenders this year. Obviously with St. Olaf returning the more than half of their championship squad from last year and NCC who is always in the hunt, La Crosse is the only other school that looks like it can do any damage in the team race.
But I believe North Central will end up winning this year. Sure, no John Crain but Troy Kelleher looks like he will be contending for an individual title at the end of the year. With Root (14:34/9:10), Dickshinski (30:35/14:30) and Morrison (30:26) in the supporting cast (along with Aron Sebhat who has national experience now) it is likely that they will off set Olaf's strong 1-3.
Year in and year out we see the same deal. There are good teams with great 1-3 or 1-4 guys, I'm looking at you Haverford/Calvin, that don't win because you NEED 5 runners.
I'm calling it now. Olaf will be winning the race through about 3 miles but on the strength of Grant Wintheiser, Jake Campbell and Jake Brown BUT a combination of Calvin Lehn, Phil Meyer, Paul Escher and whomever else they throw on the line in the 7th spot will blow the race. North Central has proven to be too consistent at the National Meet and I think Olaf lacks the 4-5-6-7 depth to go in to the race and win without another PERFECT performance.
Last year they ran a perfect race and won by 2 points. While it was stunning and miraculous, thats all it was, a miracle. North Central does not lose enough going into the year and is likely to being running with revenge on their minds.
As for La Crosse, I only threw them in there because every other team in the nation is so indisputably weak that 3rd place seems like a lock for the Eagles.
For the rest of the country: 4th place is pretty wide open, to all you schools who want to get on the podium, best be looking to 4th because there wont be any miracles this season.
Official June Prediction:
1) North Central College -72 points
2) St. Olaf -87 points
3) Wis.-La Crosse -187 points
4) Wis.-Platteville -242 points
Individual Champion: Andrew Padgett (Wash. U)