xvc wrote:
Honestly the Olympic 5k final this year is a very poor indicator of how good he is as a 5000m man. That race was basically a 400m race.
Did you actually watch the race?
Yes, it went out very slow, 5:56 at 2K. But the last 1600 was run in 3:57. And I believe a lap or 2 before that were in the 62 range. Not exactly a 400 meter race.
In Olympic, I had Thomas Longosiwa, and he won bronze medal because the race WAS NOT A 400m RACE. Thomas has a high level of endurance (he comes from 10000m, and I want to go back to this event next year), but is not very fast (may be 3'37" at his best in a fast 1500m). But in London, the last 2 km were run in 4'58".
Who saw the race, could realize Thomas almost was tripped with 300m to go, lost the balance, had to slow down because boxed, and was able to go again. I think there was nothing to do with Mo, but probably, without this accident, he could look for silver.
Anyway, I didn't put Thomas in Bruxelles because I think that, at the moment, he doesn't have the specific endurance for running under 26'50", that is the only reason because an athlete having 12'49" can try the double distance. Of course, he can move to 10000 for WCh only if I see the specific training can bring him to run 26'30", otherwise there is no reason.
About Isiah, the race can give us only some info. Personally I don't think he can be really prepared for 10000m, so if able running under 26'50" he can show the possibility to run under 26'30" with specific training for next year (he ran 3000m few days ago, and clearly never went, during the last period, for long fast run or used long intervals on track).
About Nicholas Kemboi, of course I know he could run 12'53" with a perfect race during the period of Bruxelles 2003. However, he could run faster 10000m, too, because during that race, Haile, when (looking for the WR) realized that after 8 km there were still with him two my athletes, slowed down for 3 laps (from 62" to 67") losing the opportunity of the WR but only looking for winning the race, and Nicholas attacked during the last turn for a lack of experience. They finished the last 600m in 1'25", and with the 3 laps at normal pace the final result could be very close 26'22". So, for Nicholas I can suppose values of 12'53" / 26'23", meaning a difference of 37" with the double of the shorter distance.
This doesn't change the equivalence 5000 / 10000, point we were discussing, for a real specialist of 10000m.
why is this guy in the race? http://www.diamondleague.com/athletes/14424325.htm#
asdefjh wrote:
xvc wrote:Honestly the Olympic 5k final this year is a very poor indicator of how good he is as a 5000m man. That race was basically a 400m race.
Did you actually watch the race?
Yes, it went out very slow, 5:56 at 2K. But the last 1600 was run in 3:57. And I believe a lap or 2 before that were in the 62 range. Not exactly a 400 meter race.
news flash, but it's not exactly an amazing thing that they ran sub-4 last 1600m. When those guys are closing in 53 seconds, they only have to be running 62s for the previous 3 laps for sub-4, which is slower than their 5k pace. And for just 3 laps.
8.5 laps of jogging, 3 laps of 5k tempo, and a 53 last lap, to me, constitutes, a 400m race.
I explained that the last 2 km (that are 5 laps, not 3) were run in 4'58". This means that, looking at the whole field in the final, no more than 7 athletes were able to run in 4'58" a competition of 2000m.
So, your idea about what is a tactical race, or a race of 400m, is not very correct.
If an athlete having 14' in 5000m runs a tactical race at the pace of 15' till last lap (72" per lap), somebody having 3'50" of PB in 1500m can go to win, with a last lap of 58", and the final time is 14'46". But, if the pace is for running 16' during the first 2 km (6'24"), and after we have a progression (for example, 2'55" + 2'52" + 600m in 1'36" + last lap in 59"), of sure the specialist of 1500m doesn't win, because this interpretation is possible BECAUSE OF THE SPECIFIC ENDURANCE, NOT BECAUSE THE SPEED.
And the Olympic final was exactly this kind of competition.
it is amazing that besides one french dude there are only
ethiopians and kenyans. this aint good for the sport.
Rupp and Solinskii we need you?!?!?!
Renato Canova wrote:
It's funny to see many people calculating the possibilities to run 10000m looking at the PB of one athlete in other events, WITHOUT KNOWING THE TYPE OF TRAINING THE ATHLETE USES.
That's fair. I think posters on here are correct in saying that it's hard to tell how fast this race will play out, let alone how fast Koech can debut. I think the point that I was agreeing with in regards to this thread is that Koech could be a force to be reckoned with in a championship 10000m, just based on the way I've seen him run in the 5000m.
I said in the pre-Olympic "Kenya is going to spoil the party thread" that Kenya's best chance to medal in the 10000m wasn't even entered in the event (referring to Koech). I think that I turned out to be right. Unfortunately, that thread and any post that I make asking for an apology from ventolin is subsequently deleted.
I don't think you will ever get an apology from Vento.
Renato Canova wrote:
I explained that the last 2 km (that are 5 laps, not 3) were run in 4'58". This means that, looking at the whole field in the final, no more than 7 athletes were able to run in 4'58" a competition of 2000m.
So, your idea about what is a tactical race, or a race of 400m, is not very correct.
If an athlete having 14' in 5000m runs a tactical race at the pace of 15' till last lap (72" per lap), somebody having 3'50" of PB in 1500m can go to win, with a last lap of 58", and the final time is 14'46". But, if the pace is for running 16' during the first 2 km (6'24"), and after we have a progression (for example, 2'55" + 2'52" + 600m in 1'36" + last lap in 59"), of sure the specialist of 1500m doesn't win, because this interpretation is possible BECAUSE OF THE SPECIFIC ENDURANCE, NOT BECAUSE THE SPEED.
And the Olympic final was exactly this kind of competition.
All I know is what I saw in the race. And what I saw was practically HALF the field still in contention with 400m remaining. Dropping some 61/62 seconds laps just before the bell is not racing. Not even close. Especially when the finishing time was one of the slowest in recent memory.
With this race, because the pack was so large, physical strength/speed becomes less important than how well you can position yourself in the pack.
Based on his 3000m and 5000m performances this summer, Isaiah Koech has a potential equivalent of 26:28 for 10,000m. However, based on Mr. Canova's logical argument that specific endurance is missing for Isaiah, a 26:50 to 26:59 in Brussels seems likely (I added 1.5-2% to the equivalent).
Mr. Canova - In your opinion, how much can specific endurance be improved, and typically how long does it take to improve it?
Thank you.
SPMBLNPF wrote:
asdefjh wrote:Tergat ran under 26:30 once and only 2 others have ever done it
I never asserted that Koech would run under 26:30, I said he would run "about 26:30," which to me means anywhere from about 26:27 to 26:33. Tergat did only run faster than 26:30, that is correct, but Koech has run faster than Tergat at 5000m, and Koech is more of a 10,000m runner than a middle distance runner.
27:17.03. I await comment from SPMBLNPF.
Tinman in the house!!!
Renato Canova wrote:About Nicholas Kemboi, of course I know he could run 12'53" with a perfect race during the period of Bruxelles 2003. However, he could run faster 10000m, too, because during that race, Haile, when (looking for the WR) realized that after 8 km there were still with him two my athletes, slowed down for 3 laps (from 62" to 67") losing the opportunity of the WR but only looking for winning the race, and Nicholas attacked during the last turn for a lack of experience. They finished the last 600m in 1'25", and with the 3 laps at normal pace the final result could be very close 26'22". So, for Nicholas I can suppose values of 12'53" / 26'23", meaning a difference of 37" with the double of the shorter distance.
This doesn't change the equivalence 5000 / 10000, point we were discussing, for a real specialist of 10000m.
i'm afraid this makes no logical sense
if you are offering him 26'23 that day in a near perfect race, with quicker last 3 laps from 8k, that is basically the wr at the time ( 26'22 ) ( i do recall geb slowing considerably but didn't take splits & knew 26'30 for kemboi was long way from his ability that day )
geb went 12'39 the same year ( far from perfect race with slow 4th km & something ridiculous like 2'28 for last km ), it woud indicate kemboi had to be very close to this, otherwise it woud mean geb had far worse endurance than kemboi, which is not really feasible
i offered ~ 12'50 for him that day, but i was thinking much closer to 12'40
if, as you say, you reckon he had ~ 3'32/3'33 ability at the time, then the line of fit is ~
52.2 / 1'49.2 ->
3'32.91
4'48.86
7'23.82
12'41.82
26'23.63
it's just confirming that any guy capable of running close to 26'20 shoud be near to 12'40...
why don't you call Canovi a moron or an idiot. Instead your polite.
Clifford Clavin M.D. wrote:
As an expert on ceilings, I can GUARANTEE that Koech will NOT run 26:30 in Brussels this week.
Bink.
Clifford Clavin M.D. wrote:
I'm trying to be the guy who makes accurate predictions, which clearly isn't you.
And bink.
Maybe one day, if he keeps working hard, Isaiah Koech will run 26:48, just like Galen Rupp.
on kemboi he is misguided, rather than a moron
he is frequently misguided, wildly over/understimating his athletes
- he reckoned cherono was in possible 3'28 shape at his peak, when 3'31 looks far more likely ( if he was 3'28 in '03, he wouda been running close to 12'30 )
- he reckons kemboi was maybe 12'53, whereas anyone running close to 26'20 is much more likely to be nearer 12'40 shape
he's obviously a good coach
( but somehow can't convince his kenyans to do the weight-training needed to build an awesome kick of the likes of chebbii ( natural strength by the look of things - barrell-chested powerhouse of a distance guy ) so he isn't "great" ) which is worth offering but not really much of an empirical analyst even of his own guys
ventolin^3 wrote:
on kemboi he is misguided, rather than a moron
You've called others a moron for a lot less.
No way, he doesn't have the strength to beat rupp in that kind of race. Plus check the results...koech ran 27:17 at Brussels for 8th place.
And there's no way that a kenyan marathoner would have been close to medalling in the london 10k because they have no speed for a track race...they'd be there maybe with 600m to go but when someone starts going at well under 60 sec pace they'd start falling off at that point.
Exactly. the 2:04 guys who drifted to the marathon for the $$
would be trailing behind KB, Rupp, Farah etc.
They don't have the speed to drop a 54 lap at the.
Similarly KB doesn't have the endurance to run 2:05 now, although it can be developed by tweaking the training.
Tinman wrote:
Mr. Canova - In your opinion, how much can specific endurance be improved, and typically how long does it take to improve it?
Thank you.
Ther's not a straight answer to this question. All depends from the runner type and from past training.